Is Donald Trump's presidency the beginning of a fresh era in global order? What should be known about economical disruption and globalisation? And is the European Union overreacting to fresh events, or is it trying to "make Europe large again"? Leszek Jażdżewski (Fundacja Liberte!) talks with Matthew Kaminski, the editor-in-chief of POLITICO, who regularly writes about global politics. He is co-founder of POLITICO Europe, a pan-European publication created in 2014 as part of a joint venture with Axel Springer, and erstwhile POLITICO editor-in-chief from 2019 to 2023.
Leszek Jażdżewski (LJ): For the last eighty years we lived first in the planet after planet War II and then in the post-cold war period. Are we entering a fresh era with Donald Trump assuming the office of president of the United States?
Matthew Kaminski (MK): Maybe. Europeans are reacting to very real things, and they are yet realizing that there have been any changes in American public opinion, as well as in the American government's view of transatlantic relations and Europe.
There is always a certain danger if we do not want to consciously perceive to what politicians say – regardless of whether specified a politician is Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump during his campaign. And if Donald Trump repeats over and over again that Europeans "fuck us" that Europe is based on the presumption that it is "our enemies" and that it is simply a hard road, specified statements have real consequences. We could see these consequences in practice already in the first fewer weeks of Trump's presidency – in the way in which the current US administration dealt with the issue of diplomatic relations with Europe.
There is besides a danger of overreacting to these signals. Presidents come and go – and changes in position can be even radical. Politics and elections have crucial consequences. At the same time, national interests do not change so radically. And the reasons why the United States has been so active in Europe for the past 80 years are inactive the reasons why the US should most likely stay active in Europe in the future. Pax Americana is now almost vulgar to the American right. However, this is simply a large configuration for ensuring American prosperity and a very inexpensive way to accomplish American economical and political objectives.
In Donald Trump's case, the point is that he's crazy loud and that's why the pendulum is leaning hard in 1 direction. As a result, we are no uncertainty now seeing clear opposition to his decisions on the part of Europeans, as well as in the United States itself. We are presently faced with questions that request to be answered: is it in the interests of the United States to initiate conflicts with Canada and Mexico that are so crucial to America's welfare in the supply chain for our major trading partners? Is it in the interests of the United States to destruct the relation with Europe and what does it truly mean?
European governments bought American weapons due to the fact that they thought they were buying American insurance policy at the same time. Europeans have created a trade bridge across the Atlantic, which is 5 or 10 times larger in terms of trade relations than the 1 the United States has with China. Europe was a haven for the American military power, thus supporting the US's ability to task force. It's all inactive up to date.
Therefore, the danger lies in attributing the excessive importance of what Donald Trump says and the deficiency of knowing that it is inactive possible to "do" all this, nothing is settled. It is in the interest of both the United States and Europe to keep key transatlantic relations – due to the fact that it is much better to operate in the post-war era than in the pre-war era, erstwhile coalitions that kept Russia, China and another authoritarian countries in check are being torn off. specified a script would besides mean breaking up systems that are the basis for our prosperity in the United States. I worry about the excessive reaction – surely from Trump's people, but besides on this side of the ocean.
Interestingly, I was late in Brussels and Paris and I think that the French and the British in private talks with Trump are proceeding that he does not want to retreat the United States from Europe and that there is simply a anticipation of cooperation. Will it be easy? Nope. Are Americans unpleasant? Like JD Vance. (Let us imagine that this European leader is going to the US and giving an crucial speech in which 360 million Americans are offended!) However, it is inactive in the interests of the US and Europe to stick together. Nevertheless, trust was definitely lost, or at least severely damaged.
LJ: Is the overall approach to globalisation presently changing in the United States?
MK: There is simply a certain phenomenon that now exists on the American right or in the coalition that Donald Trump created and revived. This phenomenon is driven by 2 forces. Firstly, the way the global economy has been created in the last eighty years is detrimental to working Americans due to the fact that it allows immigrants to take jobs, and the goods that should be produced here in the United States are imported, which makes a large part of the conservative mediate class feel that they have been screwed by individual due to the fact that it is always easier to blame individual another than themselves.
The second part of this phenomenon is linked to the fact that the war in Iraq and Bush's presidency after 9/11 were what shortly revived the left. What is mostly forgotten, in any way, with a somewhat unusual delay, has become an issue utilized on the American right. erstwhile Donald Trump says, “I am the president of peace”, he does precisely what Barack Obama did in 2008, opposing the Iraq War. erstwhile he says: “I am not going to get this mediocre kid from a tiny town in Ohio to fight in a war on behalf of a globalist elite that serves the interests of a country and foreigners. I will defend what is good for America", it is simply a alternatively simplified example of populism, but it is besides a kind of a wake-up to the global financial crisis of 2009, 2010 and the continuous deterioration of the production economy – for many crucial reasons. This is besides an example of an excessive expansion of the American military power to completely different parts of the planet from Europe. That is the point. The thing is, it's not even half the population – it's not even the majority, but alternatively about 25-30% of all Americans, which is made up of a hard MAGA electorate.
Donald Trump is like many another presidents – like Joe Biden erstwhile he took office. Did Biden then decision closer to the center of the political spectrum? No, he actually moved to the left, where he thought the heart of the Democratic organization was located. Now Trump is where the heart of the Republican organization lies. But the brain of the organization – and its own brain – should be much more in the center. It is remarkable how rapidly what we can observe is happening.
We thought we were heading for the large condition of the American economy. Instead, we're talking about recession. The stock marketplace went down by 10 points in no time. That's the worst stock marketplace performance at the beginning of any presidency this century. Consumer and CEO trust has besides fallen. Meanwhile, inflation is increasing – and shortly it will grow even more with the introduction of customs duties.
In the light of these events, something is definitely changing in the United States in terms of American public opinion. However, if we look at the polls, we will announcement that people hatred Vladimir Putin, and the vast majority of Americans (including the Republican Party) believe that America should be the world's leader. Therefore, I would advise against overreacting to the advanced sound level that we can now see around Trump.
All of this can besides be dangerous to the outside world. America did not abruptly become a completely different country than it was on January 19 or 20, erstwhile Trump took office.
LJ: Donald Trump and Elon Musk say that they will disrupt not only our policies and governments, but besides our culture of commerce. What is simply a kind of sound or exaggeration, and what is simply a real disturbance?
MK: They're definitely interfering with the world's order, obviously. Do they do it in specified a way that if they were given the fact serum, they would say that they are doing it and that the effects are precisely what they hoped for? I think if they were actually given the fact serum, they would say, "Well, there are any unintended consequences here that we did not expect." They surely didn't anticipate problems on the stock market. Customs tariffs have any influence here, but Elon Musk himself, who comes to the U.S. government and starts simply destroying many things, besides matters.
One specified thing is to improvement the United States government, nothing incorrect with that. Everyone thinks his size should be reduced. any agencies should be deregulated or closed, and I see no problem here either. However, the way these changes are made, seemingly without any plan, frightened the markets and American business. The United States is simply a very pragmatic country. It is simply a country built on the thought of making money, and people are not making money now.
Another surprise for Trump's administration seems to be the fact that the MAGA community believes America's condition is failing. JD Vance truly believes that. That's why we request to improve it, defend our part of the planet. This means that if Vladimir Putin has his way, his part of Europe, so be it; China has its sphere of influence and that is fine too. But what Donald Trump is doing now is actually accelerating the possible of the American fall, questioning whether the planet should pay for the American deficit and whether the dollar inactive remains a safe currency. This full thing can't be intentional.
Another unintended consequence (or not, it's a question) is that Donald Trump's presidency saved Vladimir Putin. In early January 2025 Putin was not doing very well. Inflation in Russia was high. The interest rates were very high. He lost thousands of tanks, tens of thousands of people in his war waged in Ukraine. He spoke to people in NATO, saying he couldn't proceed fighting for another year. Meanwhile, Trump presented Putin with a "get out of jail" card.
Moreover, internally, erstwhile it comes to Elon Musk, the sale of Tesla falls. People hatred this product. Share prices fell by half. As a result, Musk lost about $170 billion in the net individual value ratio since the beginning of this administration. However, this is no reason to cry due to the fact that it inactive has $300 billion, but it is not what they expected.
Trump's administration wanted to show that they were making changes and that the process would not slow down. However, it should be remembered that Trump won a pragmatic vote. And yes, he's inactive noisy and saying crazy things, but at the same time he was beautiful pragmatic and reluctant to take risks. This may seem to have changed, at least for the moment, over any truly crucial issues. However, this does not mean that specified an approach has disappeared completely.
What is beautiful about Donald Trump is that present he can say “A” with impunity and next day “B”. He's known to change his head very quickly. That is why it is so crucial that not only the formal fuses controlling his power inactive be – on the side of Congress, the courts, and even the media – but besides the informal ones, on the side of business and allies who engage in the case and effort to steer Trump towards another direction. due to the fact that he presently does not get it straight from his cabinet, nor even from his supporters. But even Donald Trump realizes that the planet is much bigger and more complex.
LJ: You wrote once, and I agree that the best way to respond to autocrats is to task American forces. Does the current administration truly show this strength? What should be the U.S. strategy for China and another autocrats under Donald Trump, who seems to admire these autocratic leaders?
MK: True, Trump admires autocratic groups – especially in aesthetic terms. This kind goes to Donald Trump, who feels comfortable with him. He besides respects the very fact of having power and believes that the United States is simply a large country that should conclude agreements with tiny countries. (Europe – a group of tiny countries, Ukraine – a tiny country).
Imagine Trump treating Putin in the Oval Office as he treated president Zelenski – that is unthinkable. But if we're talking about the projection of the American power, something crazy is happening right now. 2 months ago, the United States was by far the strongest economy in the world. They had large growth prospects, inflation was under control, and the military was no match. Trump seemed to have all the cards—using his term—in his hand, including president Zelenski. If a Chinese superagent, individual from the KGB, or a mad leftist extremist from France, or even from the US, were to make a plan to weaken the American power in just 4 weeks, then no 1 would be able to do anything better than what Trump himself did in almost all sphere.
What is the pillar of American force? It's an economy. The fact that a dollar is simply a fiduciary currency and that the planet is paying off our debts undermines that power. Meanwhile, trade that provides America with prosperity is at risk. Immigration, which is liable for our ability to bring the best people in the planet to work in the United States, is besides threatened.
The second pillar of the American power besides collapsed. The regulation of law has been the most crucial aspect of the United States for centuries. Now they are questioned. It can be said that this is an almost apocalyptic phenomenon – and there are people who believe that possibly Trump's next decision will be the introduction of martial law due to the fact that he disagrees with the position of the courts.
For me, however, this is more like Herbert Stein's quote: "If something cannot last forever, it will end." Therefore, this package seems to be insurmountable from the point of view of the vast majority of Americans. The stock marketplace is down 10%, not 25%. Trump's endorsement rates have fallen from over 50% to 45% and are going down – but they have not yet reached 30%. In this light, I am not certain that we have reached the tallness of Trump's capabilities, but it does not seem to be a lasting consequence for him. But it besides seems that he is convinced that he is doing the right thing – and if that is the case, we will have respective hard months.
LJ: Today's talks revolve mostly around Europe's consequence to Donald Trump's decisions, especially in the digital and economical area. The technological separation of Europe from the United States seems almost impossible. What do you think Europeans should do now? Not to mention, of course, trying to avoid overreacting to what is happening.
MK: In a sense, Donald Trump helps make Europe large again, aiming punches where it hurts. Let us hope that this does not mean that Europe will again be under the influence of Russia, which is simply a real threat in all of this. The fact that the core of Europe (i.e. Germany, France and the United Kingdom) woke up, as it were, saved the premiere of Keira Starmer. In addition, Emmanuel Macron gained a fresh life insurance policy. Meanwhile, the French feel truly good due to the fact that they have been saying for decades that we cannot trust Americans. In turn Germany should strengthen its position – possibly they will request to be re-armed and take on the function of leader.
Recent events have besides shown that Europe has its strengths. Although it may seem that America is experiencing a complete intellectual breakdown, the European communicative of a fall is besides exaggerated. Europe has incredible production talent and human capital, amazing public universities. In fact, it besides faces any serious problems – but look at Poland. In 3 years Poland will outpace Japan in terms of GDP per capita and PPP. This is crazy. Poland has over 30 years of continuous growth, which has transformed this country. It spends 5% of GDP on defence. He's a real serious player in this part of the planet now.
If the message from the United States is that Europe needs to take care of its own backyard, that's fine, let's take it to the news and decision on. But ultimately, America is simply a European power. A fewer weeks ago, we were definitely Europe's most crucial ally. However, Europeans should be seriously armed.
Ukraine is simply a test that Trump can fail, but we'll see about that. People around him say he doesn't want to sale it to Russia. It is clear that Europe has a ten-fold larger economy than Russia – Russia is simply a mess. It's a 3rd planet country with a gas station and atomic weapons. We only have atomic weapons.
Europe is now facing a decisive moment, but it is not a minute to hysterize, including the United States. Europe is an highly successful military alliance, which is the consequence of architecture created after planet War II – it came from a real horror, but in fact it is highly strong and inactive legitimate.
The Constitution of the United States has existed since 1780 and is inactive damn good. Therefore, just due to the fact that America seems to be self-destructive, it is not appropriate to usage akin self-destruction here, and Europe should truly feel comfortable with how it has united in consequence to fresh events.
The danger that Europe is presently threatening is, however, that individual European countries will effort to make their own agreements with Washington or that one more time Europe will lose concentration, or that the same political forces that we have seen in the United States – and which, incidentally, we have seen in Europe first, with Viktor Orban in Hungary or Marine Le Pen in France – will be allowed to rule. Even erstwhile it comes to defence, the importance of migration must be seriously considered.
Europe should besides usage this minute to deregulation and do for Europe what Poland did for itself 30 years ago. It needs to open up and liberalize, which will lead to a much better future. due to the fact that human capital is already here; only laws must change.
This podcast was produced by the European Liberal Forum in collaboration with the Movieno Liberal Social and the Liberté Foundation!, with the financial support of the European Parliament. Neither the European Parliament nor the European Liberal Forum are liable for the content of the podcast nor for any way of utilizing it.
Podcast is besides available on platforms Sound, Apple Podcast, Stitcher and Spotify
Dr. Olga Łabendowicz translated from English
Read English at 4liberty.eu
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