The Russian Federation after the collapse of the russian Union is an crucial country internationally. Although Russia ceased to be 1 of the pillars of the Bipolar planet Order in the early 1990s, its ability to influence neighbouring countries under soft force has been limited [1In the following years, its sphere of influence declined for the benefit of the United States (exemplified by the adoption of the Central European States into the North Atlantic Alliance), and in peculiar in later years it was able to exert a crucial influence on most of the erstwhile Republics of the russian Union.
Boris Jelcin's word of office was characterised by Russia's weakness in both abroad and interior politics. External weakness was manifested in the countries of central Europe already mentioned in the exit from the Russian sphere of influence. Policy weakness besides affected Russia's economy. After the collapse of the USSR, this country faced an economical crisis and besides experienced terrorist attacks, and the separatist tendencies in the autonomous Republics and Countries were besides increasing, as was exemplified by the de facto self-reliance of Chechnya in 1991.
During the word of Vladimir Putin and Dmitri Medvedev Russia gradually began rebuilding its power in both the soft and hard sphere. This was due to economical improvement and the usage of advanced prices of natural resources on planet markets [2].
In this chapter, the author intends to focus on the aspect of soft force and the impact on Russia's future possible in this respect on Russia's invasion of Ukraine from 2022 and how Russia's future is presented after a possible truce. It is crucial that only since the full-scale invasion the Russian Federation has been suspended or excluded from many global organizations, and sanctions in many respects have hit its economy [3]. Earlier, i.e. in 2014, despite the annexation of Crimea, i.e. the seizure of the territory of another Russian state did not face crucial repression or sanctions, and its influence outside the military was seen, for example, in the form of the organisation of the 2018 planet Football Championship or the co-organization of the European Football Championship in 2021 [4].
Soft power is 1 of the basic determinants of measuring the power of the state. She was introduced to the planet debate by American political scientist Joseph Nye. It is defined as resources consisting of intangible elements of state power and methods based on the usage of these intangible elements and soft economical power tools [5]. In another words, it is “the ability to get what you want, alternatively by attraction than coercion or money” [6]. It is besides a hard part of defending and building a affirmative image of the state in the planet by utilizing past or culture [7]. The soft force is considered to be the exact other of hard power, which is referred to as a command power, which is based on the ability to force another entity expected by the state to act [8], frequently by military force.
Russian media targeted at a abroad audience specified as RT tv (formerly Russia Today), whether the net portal and Sputnik radio were present in the global information space [9]. In addition, Russia, through organisations specified as the national Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States, Nationals surviving behind the Border and global Humanitarian Cooperation (Russia), or the Russian Mir Foundation, has spread Russian education, discipline and culture, but has besides utilized specified organisations to whitewash Russia's activities towards Ukraine since 2014 [10].
Russia besides strengthened relations with the countries of the russian area and sought to make a circumstantial counterweight to the North Atlantic Pact and the European Union in the form of the Organisation of the Collective safety Agreement and the Eurasian economical Union, albeit on a importantly smaller scale.
Russia was besides 1 of the founders of BRICS, which aims, among another things, at creating a fresh monetary strategy and reforming the planet system, which, according to its members, is dominated by Western states [11].
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and its impact on its soft force
One of the fundamental difficulties associated with the investigating of soft force is to find the appropriate measures, what this soft force is actually, in so far as in the case of hard force the military power is of large importance, which in any way can be counted in the form of at least the number of weapons or soldiers serving the country, is hard in the case of soft force, due to the fact that it is hard to calculate the impact of the soft force of the country on another country. 1 specified indicator is the Global Soft Power Index prepared by Brand Finance consulting company based on investigation conducted among over 100,000 respondents from over 100 countries. The overall assessment consists of country recognition, reputation, global influence and 8 pillars of soft power, which are culture and heritage; global relations; governments; business and trade; media and communication; education and science; people and values; a sustainable future [12].
In 2021, in the year of the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, Russia was ranked 13 in this ranking with a decrease of 3 positions comparative to the erstwhile year [13In 2024 it fell to sixteenth place [14].
Source: improvement based on Global Soft Power Index rankings from 2021-2025, The ranking includes G8 countries and China to keep the transparency of the table
This decline is due to a number of factors, mainly due to the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. Despite the mobilisation of a large number of troops, Russia was incapable to occupy the full country, which besides undermined its soft strength. The Russian Army, which was expected to occupy Kiev in 3 days, was able to occupy only 1⁄5 Ukraine, which is considered to be 1 of the poorest countries in Europe. The deficiency of effectiveness of the Russian army caused Western countries to see the chance of a crucial weakening of Russia decided to impose sanctions on it, and besides to suspend, restrict, or exclude its membership in the age of global organizations, yet affecting its soft strength. This can be seen well on the example of sports games, where the representations of this country do not participate in most global games, limiting their participation to low-profile social games. Russia's reputation besides declined dramatically by attacking Ukraine. According to the soft force index quoted, Russia's score in this category fell from 6.4 in 2022 to 5.6 in 2025, (The higher the score the better), being overtaken in this category by, for example, Georgia, which clearly turned towards authoritarianism.
Russia's invasion besides caused a clear reaction from Western countries to restrict access to Russian media in their territory. The European Union has prohibited the broadcasting of, among another things, the 2 most recognizable Russian news channels, namely RT (formerly Russia Today) and the net portal and Sputnik radio [15]. A akin situation occurred in the United States, where these news channels were besides banned. However, it should be noted that these sanctions are circumvented by those entities. In the United States, Radio Sputnik has found a way to circumvent sanctions by buying airtime on akin terms as advertisers. This is due to the fact that national law prohibits abroad governments from applying for radio licences [16]. besides in Poland, erstwhile writing this text, you can easy access Sputnik Globe. Previously blocked individual national versions of the portal specified as Sputnik Polska, but the redesigned global version inactive works to find it, just usage the Russian search engine Yandex [17].
The demolition of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would increase the dependence of European states on Russian gas and thus increase the anticipation of Russian pressures on the old continent, is besides an crucial origin in weakening Russia's soft strength.18]. The project, which for years was actively opposed by Poland, was practically closed overnight after Russian aggression.
In addition, the Russian Federation, by its engagement in the conflict in Ukraine, is incapable to effectively defend its interests in areas considered by the Russian authorities to be its sphere of influence. Russia was incapable to keep peace in Nagorno-Karabakh after the Second War for this region, resulting in the 3rd War for this region and the seizure of the full area of that country not recognized by Azerbaijan's armed forces. This, in turn, resulted in a regulation of Armenian-Russian cooperation by the Prime Minister of Armenia Nikola Paszynian and a shift of his abroad policy towards the United States and the European Union. Armenia has suspended its membership of the OUBZ due to Russia's deficiency of consequence to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh [19].
Russia was besides incapable to keep its influence in Syria. The government of Bashar Al-Assad whose willingness to overthrow by society was 1 of the main causes of the outbreak of civilian war in this country in 2011 and which was supported by the Russians in this conflict, fell after a fast offensive of anti-government troops in December 2024, despite the presence of Russian troops in the country [20].
It follows that Russia's engagement in the war in Ukraine led to its limitation in another parts of the world, which in turn affected its perception on the global phase as a country failing to fulfil its obligations, which affects the soft strength of that country by weakening its reputation and global influence.
The Russian Federation authorities have besides experienced respective "diplomatic coins" in the form of statements and reactions from countries considered close to Kremlin allies that distance themselves from Russia's actions. For example, the Kazakh authorities, which at the beginning of the full-scale invasion did not support Russia either at the level of authoritative declarations or fundamentally at the time of voting in global forums. In addition, Kazakh president Kasym Żomar-Tokayev, during a gathering with Vladimir Putin in June 2022, rejected the anticipation of recognising the alleged folk republics in Donbasa and the results of the "references" concerning then controlled by the FR territories of Ukraine [21]. This was an action that clearly struck the soft strength of Russia, especially given that the Russians had helped Tokayev to suppress the riots in Kazakhstan associated with the advanced price of oil.
It should be noted here that Russia is not seen by the full planet as an aggressor. In countries further distant from Russia, social cognition of the origin and course of this conflict may be at a lower level than in Western societies. Also, any countries, due to their stormy history, feel aversion to Western countries and thus sympathize with Russia. According to an analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit, the number of countries facing Russia increased from 29 in 2022 to 35 in 2023 [22].
The positions of different countries towards Russia, from condemnation to support, according to the analysis of the EIU. March 2023
Source: https://forsal.pl/world/security/Articles/8713356, which-countries-support-politics-Russia-a- which-ja-potepija-mapa.html access 27.04.2025
The Kremlin decision-making process according to the rational choice explanation and structural reality of offensive John Mearshaimer
In the context of the subject cited, it is worth considering the way the Kremlin authorities decide, and especially Vladimir Putin. This will let us to realize the causes and reasoning that Putin was most likely guided by the decision to invade Ukraine, especially since there are no reasonable reasons at first glance. In the current globalised world, where the Russian Federation does not have a dominant position, and the annexation of the territory of the second state (which is presently prohibited by global law) could consequence in a strong regulation on the functioning of the state in the global community, or even exclusion of it for a time and which we are dealing with in Russia. Especially as certain goals Putin wanted to accomplish towards Ukraine seem to have already been realised in 2013 and 2014, by destabilising Ukraine de facto prevented her from joining NATO.
1 of the basic theories defining the policy decision-making process is the rational choice explanation introduced by economist Adam Smith. It assumes that political decisions are made on the basis of rational choices that bring benefits. This explanation is based on the presumption that people act in a deliberate and individualistic manner [23].
When examining Putin's decision to invade against this theory, it should be assumed that Putin had a clearly defined intent to pursue. This nonsubjective was to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence and to draw western influence from the borders of the Russian Federation, or even to reverse the borders of the North Atlantic Pact to the state prior to 1999. In this context, Putin may have felt that the decision to invade would be the best at a given time, and the continuation of the geopolitical situation at that time could in future consequence in the annexation of Ukraine under the control of Kiev to NATO. besides purely individualistic Putin needed a certain boost that would let him to increase his support among both citizens and elites in the Kremlin. Knowing that in 2013 his support in part of the polls was lowest since the beginning of his political career [24After annexing Crimea in 2014 and destabilising east regions Ukraine's support among the public has improved importantly with the investigation of the Center of evidence Lefts in the last 4 years [25He wanted to repeat this maneuver to accomplish akin results. In this context, a poll from the center of Levada of 2022, in which Putin recorded the lowest support in years.
As the results of Russia's support from the post-invasion of Ukraine Putin have reached the intended scenario, and its support has skyrocketed again, showing that the Russians support imperial government policy, despite global sanctions and how their country will be seen by most of the global community.
Source: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/access 21.04.2025
Another concept, from the position of which the decision to invade Ukraine can be assessed, is structural offensive realism, frequently referred to as neorealism. Structural realism itself underlines the function of the structure of the global strategy in shaping state behaviour. According to this theory, the main actors on the global phase are states, and their behaviour is determined by the structural features of the system. The offensive approach in question assumes that countries are aiming to maximise comparative force in accordance with the rule that "potash provides security, the top power is the top warrant of security". States strive to maximize force due to the fact that they are never certain erstwhile a fresh empire will appear. Russia applied this concept in practice through an invasion of Ukraine. This is intended to maximize its power. It besides fits into the concepts of Russian imperialism, and the statistic presented in the explanation of rational choice show that the majority of Russian society supports this way of policy-making by the Russian Federation authorities.
The concept of “Russian Miru” and the Euro-Asianism of Alexander Dugin as the main ideological factors affecting Russian soft force. (to compose about ieology in states)
One of the key geopolitical concepts that is reflected in the policy pursued by the Russian Federation authorities, especially since Vladimir Putin's taking over power is Ruski Mir, whose celebrated propagator is Alexander Dugin, considered among many Western observers to be the most recognizable contemporary Russian conservative thinker [26]. It is frequently cited as a concept defining the main directions of Russian soft force. It implies the pursuit of national-cultural and historical-political integration in the russian area. Russian Mir is considered the full area of influence of Russian culture [27].
This concept is closely linked to the thought of Neuro-Asianism, besides promoted by Dugin. It refers to the pre-war concept of Euroasianism and it assumes a civilizational distinctness of Russia from that which appears to be in a state of decay of Western Europe [28]. The Eurasians believed that there was an area of cultural community to which they belonged in addition to the Russian people, e.g. any Ugrofins or Turkish peoples from the Volga basin [29]. At the same time, Dugin notes civilizational distinctness from Asia. In his opinion, the Russian Federation is the base of conservative values and has a kind of civilization mission to fulfill.
Dugin besides refers to the concept of "third Rome" in his deliberations. This thought is well illustrated by the expression of the Orthodox monk Philoteus of Pskov, which reads as follows: “The first Rome fell as a consequence of heresy, the second Rome – Constantinople – as a consequence of the betrayal of actual faith, the 3rd Rome is Moscow, and the 4th will be no more.”30]. It assumes that after the fall of Constantinople, Moscow will become the center of the world, will presume the function of the centre of Orthodoxy and take work for the future of the heritage of the east Empire. This concept has greatly contributed to the improvement of Russian imperialism and is 1 of the concepts that underpins the Russian miru, as it besides refers to the unity of Orthodox nations.
This geopolitical concept began to enjoy interest in Western and Central European countries. In Poland, too, this concept enjoyed interest among media with a conservative and right-wing profile [31]. It was presented as an alternate to the progressive ideology of woke, or LGBT, which allowed Russia to advance it in the context of soft force, an example of which is mentioned and supported by the Russian government's foundation Russki Mir.
Perspectives of Russia's soft force and its impact on close countries after the truce.
Regardless of the result of the future truce of the Russian Federation, it will be hard to rebuild its soft power in the form of influences in the region. However, any of the most probable scenarios that may happen in this context should be considered.
Depending on the result of the future truce, Russia has respective possible scenarios. It will surely be hard to rebuild its position in the society of Western countries, where the vast majority of citizens believe that Russia and, above all, Vladimir Putin are to blame for what is happening in Ukraine.
The first scenario, most optimistic for Russia, assumes the gradual return of the Russian Federation to the global group. This will be due to the very optimistic approach of the current American administration to the Russian Federation. European Union countries, in peculiar those in the west, will gotta gradually resume relations with Russia. Russia's membership of global organisations from which it is presently suspended or excluded will besides be gradually restored. The media reports already say that Russia should be restored to football games under the aegis of UEFA [32]. Russia, however, will not be able to defend itself from China's addiction, which will by no means let it to stay an empire
The second script assumes further global isolation of the Russian Federation. The next steps of the current American administration will be of large importance here. Donald Trump's current statements and actions are undoubtedly beneficial to Russia. Trump repeatedly accused Ukraine of starting a war to the same degree as Russia, which allows the Russian communicative of the origin of the conflict to be authenticated. Also, the duties that Trump imposed on almost the full planet did not include Russia. The White home initially argued that through the continued sanctions global trade in Russia and the United States is inactive limited to a minimum, while later the American Trump administration stated that the main reason is the ongoing negotiations on ceasefire in Ukraine [33] . However, this explanation does not explain why Ukraine was subject to sanctions, as well as why Belarus, like Russia, avoided sanctions, although it is not formally active in the war. This kind of action by the Trump administration allows Russia to legitimize its actions, especially as it looks at the fact that duties have besides been covered by the uninhabited Heard and McDonald Islands [34] At the same time, a large proportion of the European Union countries distance themselves from Donald Trump's current policy towards Russia and take steps to increase their impact on safety in Europe.
The 3rd worst-case script for Russia assumes further global isolation of Russia, while changing the approach of the US administration towards Russia. Donald Trump has shown more than erstwhile that he is unpredictable and can change his head overnight. specified a script can be driven by the Russians themselves, who tend to outbid in diplomacy, which may irritate Trump, whose 1 of the postulates was to end the war within the celebrated 24 hours of swearing in. In this scenario, Russia's impact on close countries will be the smallest, and its soft strength will should be heavy rebuilt. Europe, as in the second scenario, will have limited relations with Russia.
Regardless of which script will prove to be close the future, there is no uncertainty that the soft force of the Russian Federation was weakened by the invasion of Ukraine, and its decision was the consequence of Putin's individual calculation of his political future and Russia's putting the hard force first and ignoring the soft force.
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