Tulsi Gabbard – manager of American intelligence (photo) actually wrote it. No understatements, no stars and no ritual “but”. In fact, American intelligence believes that Russia is not capable of conquering Ukraine, much little the invasion and business of Europe.
She stressed that, according to the US intelligence, Russia avoids a greater conflict with Europe and lacks resources for specified an operation. Gabbard accused politicians and the media of promoting false information, which aims to escalate the conflict and sabotage Trump's efforts for peace.
This message goes against the current of Western dominant narrative, built on a mantra, that if Ukraine loses, then “Putin will decision on.” This is simply a politically convenient story, due to the fact that it closes the debate, disciplines voters and justifies all decision. but as a strategical analysis, it's just ridiculous. Putin can be called different: a criminal, a dictator, a villain, but surely not a suicide. A country that struggles to wage war against Ukraine with immense losses does not prepare for a frontal confrontation with NATO – an alliance respective times more military and economic.
Importantly, this is not just "American heresy". A akin assessment is formulated by Alexander Stubb – a politician from a country that Russia knows not from conference slides, but from geography and history. Finland, fresh in NATO, is not building its strategy on the thesis of the inevitable Russian invasion of the West, but on deterrence, resilience and cold calculation. No hysteria. Without apocalyptic visions of the march to Helsinki or Warsaw.
Against this background, EU leadership is increasingly grotesque. alternatively of realism – moral panic. alternatively of analysis of ability – escalation of rhetoric. alternatively of politics – messages written as if Europe was going to fall victim to the blitzkrieg tomorrow. The European Union acts as if scaring its own societies are a substitute for a strategy. Effect? Ridiculous. due to the fact that the louder the thesis is repeated about the inevitable attack on Poland and the West, the more you can see its intellectual void.
Gabbard's message is not "pro-Russian". It's anti-illusory. It recalls that safety policy is not about producing fear, but about a sober assessment of facts. And the facts are that Russia is dangerous – but not omnipotent. And that the West, which itself does not believe in its own narratives, begins to sound not as a strategist, but as a mediocre propagandaist.
Leszek Miller
Photo: Wikipedia
