Right-Wing Tsunami: Conservatives Ascendant In Euro Parliament Vote, Le Pen Thrashes Macron; Germany’s SPD Suffers evidence Route

As we avoid the results from the European Parliament vote (previewed here), the exit polls from Germany are already in and they are a disaster for both the alliance of French president Macron, who was steamrolled by Marine Le Pen, and for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, which crashed to their read-ever consequence in European Parliament elections Sunday, as conservative and right-wing parties soared across the old continuous, a consequence which will aid tilt the European parliament further towards a more anti-immigration and anti-green standing.

According to preliminary results from 5 countries, right-wing lots are estimated to have won at least 33 of the 174 seats available in Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece and the Netherlands, according to authoritative exit polls from these countries, up from 19 seats at the last election in 2019. And – as the ultraliberal FT ads – "The surgeon, at the increase of liberal and Green parties, would complete European commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second word as head of the EU’s executive.”

In Germany, Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats crashed to their worst-ever result, falling to 3rd place with 14% of the vote behind the populist and nationalist Alternative for Germany, which has become the second-largest German organization in the European Parliament with 16.4%. The conservative CDU/CSU alliance was on course for a comfortable win with 29.6%, according to an exit poll Sunday from public broadcaster ARD. The another 2 parties in Scholz’s rolling alliance — the Greens and the Free Democrats — got 12% and 5% respectfully.

As reported overnight, the German exit polls are among the first results from the European election, which started Thursday and cultures Sunday, and will find the make-up of the bloc’s legislative assembly. The result will establish which leaders have the most leverage to claim the EU’s top jobs, including the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council.

The catastrophic showing for Scholz’s coalition underscores the expanding difficulty the German government faces in leading European policy. Support for Scholz’s rolling alliance in Berlin has dropped to evidence lows in fresh months, with the 3 parties’ combined support presently around 35%, down from more than 50% in the 2021 national election.

As Bloomberg reports, CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann asked whether Scholz verses the authenticity to lead the country and blamed the rulining coalition’s policies for the emergence of the AfD. “He was the 1 on the election posts so truly he should submit to a vote of confidence,” Linnemann said.

The AfD managed to post crucial gain despite experiencing a series of setsbacks in fresh weeks engaging bribery and spying scandals. The Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht, or BSW, which she co-founded in January after splitting from the Left party, got 5.7%.

Kevin Kuehnert, the SPD general secretary, said the organization won’t be seeing “scapegoats” and insisted that it had been the right decision to make Scholz a central figure in the election run despite his comparatively low adoption rating.

“For us this is an utmost bitter result,” Kuehnert said in an interview with ARD. “We will gotta look at where we were’t good in our mobilization,” he added. “The promise now is that we’ll fight back from this.”

Kuehnert said the precedence for the coalition in coming weeks is to broker an agreement on next year’s budget, which has been another origin of infighting in the three-party alliance.

Amid continued losses for the establishment, right-wing and conservation parties in Europe are sorted to choice up more seats combined with the last election 5 years ago, as migration swings to the top of the political agenda, while the EU’s ambitious climate goals may face large hurdles.

Still, at the EU level, centrist parties on the left and right are due to keep their grip on the majority. That means a degree of continuity on key policies at a time of immense geopolitical integrity with Russia's war on Ukraine racing to the east and China becoming always more assertive.

As further discussed overnight, the EU is besides confronting challenges including how to main fiscal sustainability while investing in a greener future, boosing the competitiveness of European manufacturing and strengthening defence capabilities amid the possible of Donald Trump’s return to the US Presidency, which could affect everything from trade to environment policy.

Germany’s next national vote is due in the fall of next year. The rulining parts are expected to far just as poorly in their next major electoral test — 3 regional balls in September in the east states of Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg with the AfD is leading in the polls in the 3 states, but is improbable to get into government as all another parties have routed out joining it in coalition.

In the Netherlands, Dutch preserve Geert Wilders notched crucial gain on Thursday, though fell short of winning the most Dutch seats in the European Parliament. That triumph was claimed by a coalition of left-wing parts.

In possibly the biggest shock of all, however, the French right-wing has inflated a stacking defeat on the Macron alliance: with Le Pen’s gaining 32-33% of the vote to Macron group’s 15% according to pollsters.

BREAKING – EU elections: Le Pen’s far right leads with 31.5% of vote in France, Macron’s organization tracks at 15.2% (exit polls) https://t.co/5NBONjC02t pic.twitter.com/95e7c9Dnxa

— FRANCE 24 – Breaking (@BreakingF24) June 9, 2024

According to AFP, voter turnout in France was up 2 points as of 5pm, with 45.26% of eligable voters casting balls combined with 43.29% in 2019. The turnout for EU elections is mostly low, but the last elections in 2019 shown the first uptick in 30 years with a turnout of 50.7 percent.

France, Ifop Fiducial exit poll:

European Parliament election

RN-ID: 32.4%
Bd’E-RE: 15.2%
Rl’E-S&D: 14.3%
LFI-LEFT: 8.3%
LR-EPP: 7.0%
LÉ-G/EFA: 5.6%
REC-ECR: 5.1%
...

Special selection page: https://t.co/1An2baUJmP #ElectionsEuropéennes2024 #EP2024 pic.twitter.com/DW6p162kap

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 9, 2024

In Austria, the right-wing, national-conservative anti-immigrant Freedom organization was in the lead with an estimated 27 percent, Austrian national broadcaster ORF said. If the number is confirmed later Sunday, it would be the first time the OFF wins the European Parliament election in Austria.

The conservative People’s organization (OVP) and the Social Democrats (SPO) are presently besides close to call, it said, estimated to have broken in 23.5 percent and 23 percent of the votes relatively.

Erste Trendprognose für EU-Wahl in Österreich: FPÖ ist Wahlsieger, Kopf-an-Korf-Rennen um Platz zwei zwischen ÖVP und SPÖ, Grüne verlieren, NEOS gewinnen hinzu #Europawahl2024 #EUelections2024 pic.twitter.com/IN0lGAaQcP

— ORF Breaking News (@ORFBreakingNews) June 9, 2024

Finally in Spain, more of the same anti-establishment, anti-liberal, anti-immigrant tsunami:

• *SPAN’S OPPOSITION CONSERVATIVES LEAD IN EU VOTE: EXIT POLL

About 360 million people are eligible to vote for the 720 lawmakers who will service in the EU absolutely for the next 5 years, 96 of them from Germany. A majority of the 27 members nations are holding their balls on Sunday, with results due to trickle in throughout the evening. Results from France are due after 8 p.m. local time.