The Minsk government releases 52 political prisoners – Lukashenko from the USA

On 11 September, Alaksandr Lukashenka accepted peculiar Envoy John Cole and Deputy Secretary of State for east Europe Christopher Smith in Minsk. too the dictator, the Belarusian side was represented by the KGB chief Ivan Tertel and the Permanent typical of Belarus to the UNWalancin Rybakou. Following talks, Cole announced that Donald Trump had personally abolished sanctions against Belavia's Belarusian airline. He besides announced that the United States would strive to normalize relations, including sending an American ambassador to Minsk in the close future.

In response, Lukashenka allowed the release and transport to Lithuania of 52 political prisoners, including erstwhile presidential candidate Mikalaj Statkiewicz (he refused to go to exile and was detained by the KGB). 3 Polish citizens were released. The Minsk government has declared further support for Trump's "peaceful policy" administration, and contacts with the US show as an example of a policy effectively breaking the Western isolation.

Another gathering of Lukashenko with a advanced typical of the U.S. administration – General Keith Kellogg was present in Minsk in June – a pretext for the dictator to claim that he effectively overcome global isolation. The government will exaggerate the importance of contacts with Washington, hoping that this will change the perception of European countries, including Poland, continuing to isolate Belarus.

Comment

• Cole’s second visit to Minsk confirms that Lukashenko is conducting a transaction policy towards the USin exchange for the slow release of political prisoners. However, this will not reduce the scale of interior repression and the nature of the regime. More than 1.1 1000 convicts for anti-regime activities inactive reside in Belarusian prisons. There are besides further arrests – only on 12 September 9 people were added to the list of prisoners of conscience.
• Minsk's most crucial economical nonsubjective is to abolish US sanctions on exports of potassium fertilisers. This would be most profitable if Lithuania gave its approval to usage Klaipeda port. At present, this seems improbable – Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė announced that despite possible force to revise restrictions on Belarus, including the abolition of restrictions on the transit of potassium fertilisers, Vilnius will stay relentless. A akin position was taken by abroad Minister Kęstutis Budrys, who announced that there was no anticipation of a possible abolition of sanctions.
• A photograph of the Belavia regulation will not improve the state of the Belarusian economy. It will most likely only let to resume deliveries of American spare parts essential for servicing Boeing and Embraer aircraft. There is simply a hazard that any of the components could go to Russia, looking for ways to circumvent sanctions. It is improbable that direct air services from the USA will resume, inter alia, due to the hardware constraints of the Belarusian carrier and the continuing EU restrictions.
• The thaw between Belarus and the United States is unconcerned in Russia and has not met the Kremlin's reaction. This means that the opinions of Lukashenko’s desire to weaken her addiction are not reliable. This besides applies to military cooperation. Cole's visit took place on the eve of Zapad-2025 exercises, whose script foresees a NATO conflict, and the parties did not signal that the military situation in the region was the subject of the talks.
• In the propaganda dimension, Minsk exaggerates the importance of contacts with Trump. A tiny American sanctioning concession presents as a success of the regime's abroad policy and an crucial step towards Lukashenko's recovery of global legitimacy. It cannot be excluded that his ambitions concern the function of host to possible talks on the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This is part of the paradigm of Belarusian abroad policy known from earlier years, suggesting that Minsk is ready to balance between Moscow and the West.