Housing in China – the end of the real property boom era

Housing in China has reached its lowest level since the early 21st century, which marks the final end of a long-term boom in the real property marketplace driven by massive improvement expansion.

Data published on 15 December 2025 by the National Statistical Office (NBS) showed that in the first 11 months of 2025 The full area of the housing facilities started decreased by 19.9% y/y392 million m2, while sales of fresh housing decreased by 8.1% y/y up to 658 million m2. This means that for all 100 m2 of houses sold there was only 59.5 m2 of fresh building space – the lowest rate of investments started compared to sales since at least 2000.

This change signals Structural turning point in the Chinese real property sector: alternatively of expansion, developers are presently focusing on reducing their balance sheet and solving the problem of excessive housing stocks.

Official data from the past 26 years have shown a clear image of marketplace transformation. Between 1999 and 2014, violent urbanisation drove request for housing, and the rate of the constructions started compared to sales frequently exceeded 110%, reaching up to 150%. The first authoritative informing signal appeared in mid-2014, erstwhile the authorities called on developers to reduce oversupply. From 2015 to 2017, the rate fell below 100%, but rapidly rebounded with sales growth between 2018 and 2020.

Construction Summit 2019, erstwhile the construction of 1,675 billion m2 of housing began – exceeding sales from the erstwhile year (1,501 billion m2). However, from August 2020, after the introduction of the "three red lines" policy – aimed at reducing the debt of the improvement sector – the dynamics began to weaken. In 2021, sales reached a historical peak, but the number of buildings started dropped by 11% and the rate fell to 93.5%..

The decline deepened in 2022 erstwhile the area of the buildings started decreased by almost 40% y/y to 881 million m2 and the rate reached 76.9%. This trend continued in 2023 and 2024, reaching a fresh minimum in 2025.

Based on data from the first 11 months of 2025, the year-round area of the buildings started housing could be around 430 million m2 – 74% little than the 2019 summit and at a level comparable to 2003, at an early phase in the improvement of the commercial housing marketplace in China.

Sales fell slower: the estimated year-round sales in 2025 were about 720 million m2, which means a decrease of about 54% compared to the 2021 summit – which emphasizes how rapidly developers retreat from fresh investments.

China has completed in just 15 years the process of building per capita housing on a scale that has taken any developed economies 25–30 years. Current adjustments reflect the request for adjustment after years of excessive expansion.

Reducing stocks remains a key challenge. According to the November 2025 figures, the average sales period for fresh housing in the 100 largest Chinese cities was 27.4 months – well above a healthy scope of 12–14 months.

The Chinese authorities confirmed that the precedence is to stabilise the real property marketplace by tailor-made local policies aimed at reducing fresh supply, reducing stocks and improving the quality of construction. However, the manufacture expects a further decline in investment and construction before the gradual stabilisation of prices and sales.

Source:

• Caixin (财新网) – "2025年1-11月住宅新开工面积同比下降19.9%"
• Xinhua (新华网) – ‘中国房地产进入深度调整期:新开工面积创20余年新低’
• People’s regular Online (人民网) – “楼市供需关系逆转:新开工仅为销售面积的59.5%”
• China Real property Information corp (CRIC, 克而瑞) – ‘2025年房地产新开工与销售比值创历史新低’