Chinese exports ended 2025 strong growth, despite US trade restrictions. According to the Chinese customs office, The trade surplus amounted to evidence $1,189 trillion – much more than $992 billion in 2024.
December 2025 exports increased by 6.6% y/y (with a forecast of 3%) and throughout the year – 5.5%. meantime imports remained unchanged (+0.0% y/y)which reflects self-sufficiency strategy and technological limitations from the West.
Decrease in exports to the USA, growth towards Asia, Europe and Africa
Despite the trade agreement of October 2025, Exports to the United States decreased by 30% in December - That's it. 9 months in a row. These possible losses have been fully compensated by a dynamic increase in supplies to another regions:
- South-East Asia: +12%,
- Europe: +11%,
- Africa: +22.
Shift towards advanced value added products
Export structure clearly evolves towards high-tech products:
- exports of semiconductors: +47.7% y/y in December,
- exports of vehicles: +71.7% y/y,
Traditional export goods, specified as shoes and toys, noted inheritances.
"Export structure shows that China is inactive moving up the value-added ladder", she said Lynn Song, chief economist of ING for Continental China.
Automotive success: exports 7.1 million cars
By China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM)In 2025 China exported 7.1 million vehicles (+21 % y/y), including:
- 2.6 million fresh energy vehicles (EV and plug-in hybrids) – double growth from 2024,
- Chery and BYD – each of these companies exported last year after over 1 million cars.
It is worth noting that The increase in exports (21%) exceeded the increase in home sales (9.4%), which confirms the global expansion of Chinese brands.
Self-sufficiency and technological constraints
The stagnation of imports is not only due to policy ‘double circulation’but besides with US export restrictions. He explained Wang Jun, Deputy Head of the General Customs Administration:
"Some countries are politicalising trade issues by limiting exports of high-tech products to China. If not, we would have imported even more.”
The main concern is AI systems, lithographic tools and advanced materials.
Perspectives for 2026
Analysts foretell slowing exports to ~3% in 2026 due to:
- strengthening yuan,
- commercial tensions,
- reductions in taxation returns.
Still, the bank UBS indicates significant growth potential – especially if the drop to the US will brake in the second 4th of 2026. At the same time, an investment bank Macquarie warns that weaker exports can trigger a fresh stimulus package from the side of Beijing.
Source:
- Nikkei Asia – China’s exports surge, trade surplus hits evidence $1.2tn despite US tariffs, https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade/china-s-exports-surge-trade-surplus-hits-record-1.2tn-despite-us-tariffs
- China Customs — December 2025 abroad Trade Statistics, January 14, 2026
- CAAM — 2025 yearly Vehicle Export ReportJanuary 2026
- Societe General – China’s Trade Surplus and Self-Sufficiency Drive, January 10, 2026
Author: 梁安基 Andrzej Z. Liang, 上海 Shanghai, 中国 China
Email: [email protected]
Editorial: Leszek B.
Email: [email protected]
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