Coffee lovers request to prepare for a powerful punch in their wallets. What is happening in the planet markets is no longer a distant problem – the effects are already felt at the store shelf and at the favourite cafe. The prices of the favourite drink of Poles are rising at an alarming rate, and experts agree: this is not a temporary crisis. According to the latest data, the increases have reached over 25% of the year, and this is only the beginning of the expensive. Analysts inform against achieving the alleged "promise of pain", after which many of us will gotta revise their regular habits. Coffee, until late a symbol of the morning ritual available to everyone, rapidly changes its position and becomes an increasingly luxurious commodity. The causes of this phenomenon are complex and scope from weather anomalies in Brazil and Vietnam to rising logistics costs worldwide.
A global storm in a cup. Why are coffee prices rising worldwide?
The current crisis in the coffee marketplace is the consequence of overlapping respective negative global factors. The Key function Climate change that destroys crops in the countries which are the largest grain producers. In Vietnam, a planet leader in the production of robusty, historical droughts led to a drastic decline in harvesting. In Brazil, the arabic kingdom, however, growers face both water shortages and violent floods. These utmost weather conditions not only reduce the amount of natural material available but besides reduce its quality.
Andrzej Gantner, CEO of the Polish Federation of Food Producers, straight points to consequences. "The weather anomalies reduce yields both due to water shortages or fast floods, as well as a decrease in plant opposition to diseases. It is estimated that this led to reduction of coffee grain yields by up to 20%.“The expert alerts. As a result, a immense supply gap is created in the planet market. Forecasts for the 2024/2025 period mention to the arabica deficit reaching up to 8.5 million sacks.
Climate problems arise increasing production and logistics costs. Higher prices for energy, fertilisers, plant protection products and maritime transport straight translate into the final price of the product. The situation is further compounded by the increasing request in Asian countries, where coffee drinking culture is developing rapidly. Greater competition for limited natural material makes markets like Poland gotta pay for grain much more than a year ago.
A 25% rise is just the beginning. Forecasts for Poland are ruthless
The effects of the global crisis are already brutally felt in Poland. According to data from the Polish Federation of Food Manufacturers, the dynamics of price increases is alarming. May 2024 prices of ground coffee increased in Poland by 25.1% year-on-yearand coffee soluble by 20.3%. By comparison, these increases were only 5.4% and 1.0%, respectively, throughout 2023. This means a fast and unprecedented acceleration of the price which has amazed many consumers.
But this is not the end of bad news. Prices on global stock exchanges, which are a benchmark for contracts concluded by smoking companies, have increased by nearly 100% over the last year. This means that The biggest increases are just ahead. Manufacturers and trade chains, which have so far partially cushioned cost increases in order not to deter customers, now shift them entirely to consumers. The strategy of maintaining coffee as a promotional product is gone.
Experts are unanimous – more costly coffee will become a fresh standard, not a momentary phenomenon. marketplace analysts foretell that the growth trend will proceed for at least a twelve months. For the average Polish household this means a crucial increase in spending on 1 of the basic food products. The time for inexpensive coffee is definitely over.
How much do we pay for coffee? Experts talk about “the pain threshold”
Price increases are most visible not only on the store shelves, but besides in cafes. Until recently, a cup of coffee for over 20 zlotys seemed a luxury, present it becomes a standard in larger cities. For popular lattes or cappuccinos in networks you gotta pay 20 to 23 złand versions with additives, specified as syrups or alternate milk, can cost nearly 30 PLN. The records are credited by the Warsaw restaurant CAVA, where for double espresso with exclusive seeds of Kopi Luwak you gotta pay as much as 92 PLN.
Market analysts introduced the concept of alleged "pain threshold" for consumers. This is simply a limited price, after exceeding which customers massively begin to change their purchasing habits. In Poland, this threshold for a kilogram of popular ground coffee is estimated to be approximately 120-140 PLN. What happens erstwhile prices scope this ceiling? Many Poles are expected to quit more expensive, branded products for cheaper replacements or brands of their own discounts. any consumers can besides reduce coffee intake or start looking for alternatives specified as yerba mate or tea.
This change can permanently shuffle the Polish coffee market, strengthening the position of the cheapest brands and at the same time making a high-quality arabica from the specialty section a product available only to the wealthiest. A regular coffee drinking ritual for many can become a luxury that you can afford much less.
Coffee locked in cabinets. This is how shops in Europe fight the scourge of theft
The expanding value of coffee has yet another amazing effect – it has become 1 of the most stolen products in food stores in Europe. The problem is peculiarly acute in Germany, where the losses for this are in hundreds of millions of euros. Just In Berlin, yearly losses due to retail theft amount to EUR 200 millionand coffee is at the top of the list of the most preferred products.
In consequence to the scourge of theft, the largest commercial networks, specified as Edeka, Lidl or Rewe, introduce extremist safety measures. In many markets, coffee packaging is closed in transparent display cases or secured with peculiar anti-theft clips that remove the cashier. any stores go 1 step further, introducing sales limits on 1 client or installing advanced surveillance systems based on artificial intelligence to detect suspicious behavior.
This clearly shows how much the perceived value of coffee has changed. The product, which has been lying on open shelves until recently, is now treated equally with costly alcohols or cosmetics. This is further proof that the marketplace is entering a fresh era, in which coffee becomes a valuable and desirable asset not only by consumers but besides by thieves.
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Record coffee prices hit Poles. Experts inform against “the pain threshold”
