It has been nearly six months since the end of the rebel offensive, which rapidly defeated Bashar al-Assad's forces, thus ending the six decades-long era of BAAS regulation (Socialist arabian Revival Party). Since then, reports from Syria have appeared in the planet media almost exclusively in situations of inflamed conflict between spiritual groups and increased Israeli-Turkish tensions. The article provides a broader analysis of developments in Syria by the following categories: political system, interior policy, economy and external relations.
Political system
As of March 13, Syria has a fresh basic law. It is called the Constitutional Declaration, not the Constitution, the word ‘declaration’ may weaken the rank of that legislative act. The paper was given to the state straight by Ahmed al-Shara, who was appointed interim president in January by the chief command of muslim forces[1]. The basic law was prepared by a committee of lawyers selected by the fresh leader. From the premise of the Declaration is temporary, its provisions disagree small from those of the last Constitution of 2012; only articles on the guiding function of the Baas organization and akin provisions characteristic of the erstwhile strategy have been deleted, and a small more space is devoted to civilian liberties. The main origin of law is the principles of Islam, an identical provision in the erstwhile constitution repealed shortly after the change of power[2]. This shows that most likely the most crucial changes in Syrian law will not trust on formal amendment, alternatively on a conservative explanation of the existing rules by a fresh line of constitutional case law.
Admed al-Shara holds individual regulation — right after Assad escaped parliament was suspended[3]and in January yet dissolved. The winner of the civilian War announced that fresh parliamentary elections will be held in 4 years[4].
In the political practice of African and Asian states, the announcement of their organisations after 2 years of suspension of political freedoms means that elections will not be or will be façade. Their declaration after a longer period of time guarantees that this will happen and in this case. The representatives of the DAWN organisation in the mediate East for promoting democracy and human rights have stated that al-Sharaa has not mentioned democracy once.[5]. In fact, the Syrian leader discussed democracy in an interview with The Economist,noting the different definitions of this concept. At the same time, he stated that Syria is moving towards democracy, but it must be a peculiar model adapted to Syrian conditions.[6]. The prime minister of the first government after the rebellion triumph was Mohammed al-Bashir, who previously held the same function in the Htsov government controlling part of the Idlib province. Similarly, many another leading ministries were filled with representatives of that government[7]. The last cabinet of Bashira included 24 ministers, of which 17 belonged to Hajat Tahrir asz-Sham, and the remainder were nominally independent. On 29 March a fresh government was formed with a greater engagement of independent politicians. It besides included representatives of the Christian, Kurdish and Alawic populations. It is straight led by the president and the Prime Minister's function has been abolished[8].
Internal policy
The main nonsubjective of the fresh leadership of Syria is without a uncertainty to strengthen power, which is not easy in a war-stricken country. After the victory, the rebels from Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham immediately proceeded to subject themselves to state structures. HTS rapidly took control of all state institutions. Personnel from the time of Assad were replaced, released from state functions were respective 100 1000 people[9]. In utmost cases, institutions were liquidated and fresh ones were created — specified was the case with an army that was built again on the basis of rebel troops. In December, president Al-Sharaa announced the dissolution of all armed groups including Hajat Tahrir asz-Sham[10]However, the implementation of this plan has encountered serious obstacles. In practice, there is inactive a scope of paramilitary organisations and militias more or little independent of central authority in Syria, and they have real control over many parts of the country by conducting their own local policy. The decentralization of the rebel forces proved beneficial to them at the time of the offensive against the government's troops, erstwhile the highly free commanders of the individual troops could respond to developments on an ongoing basis, while the Generals of Assad had to wait for orders from above. In peace, however, this makes it hard to merge troops and slows the stableness of the country. It is besides hard to be amazed that abroad jihadists do not want to quit autonomy, which is for them the best warrant of the anticipation of moving a fight in the name of Islam to their homelands.
The state institutions seized are subject to the process of Islamisation, as illustrated by police services. After the fall of the Assad dictatorship, changes in police training made the main emphasis on spiritual learning for recruits[11]. There have been crucial changes to the programme base in the Syrian education system. In past classes, the teaching of pre-Islamic past of the country was limited and the condemnation of the Ottoman period ceased. Religion’s influence on another subjects has besides increased, and the explanation of the Qur’an has changed in religion itself.[12]. Broader Islamisation can be expected erstwhile the process of organization transformation is completed and the position of the fresh power stabilised.
The top interior tensions caused a conflict between the Sunni majority of the population and the alavits forming the backbone of the erstwhile ruling elite. The Alavites were victims of self-righteousness and force from self-deeding fresh safety officials[13], they were frequently besides discriminated against in recruitment for state posts. This made them start organizing their armed forces. There was a rapprochement between them and erstwhile Assad government officials who resisted arrests. On March 6, an alawick rebellion broke out, which covered large areas on the coasts of the country. Zriv was rapidly mastered by government troops. In his suppression, war crimes occurred, and the murders were joined by Sunni civilians who organized the alawite pogroms. Over a 1000 people died in battles and slaughters, detailed estimates vary[14]. president al-Sharaa condemned force against civilians and announced the punishment of the guilty. For this purpose, he set up, among others, a commission to analyse events on the coast. In early April, the investigation was extended by 3 months[15]. The committee's actions are criticised for not disclosing the results of its work on an ongoing basis and for not cooperating with victims, civilian society organisations and UN bodies. She is besides accused of being independent[16].
Bringing guilty crimes to account and preventing akin events in the future is not an easy task due to the limited control of the president over the armed forces and the existence of many troops actually independent of the government.
Moreover, as the author of the Lewant Pulse blog notes, it is to a large degree the forces closely associated with Turkey that are liable for the bloodshed, and Ankara's consent to hold them accountable is virtually unrealistic[17]. According to most sources, respective to a twelve Christians died in the early March massacres, which was the consequence of the transfer of Sunni mob's anger in general by innoisseurs or mistakes. Besides, there are no attacks on Christians. There have been incidents specified as burning the Christmas tree (in its place the authorities have put a fresh one), while reports of the persecution of Christ's followers have been deposed, among others, by Bishop Hanna Jallouf, Apostolic Vicar of Aleppo[18] and Open Doors organization[19] tending to exaggerate the problems faced by Christians in different lands. Over the years, Christians in the Islamic-led Idlib state enjoyed tolerance, changing this policy would be a extremist turn in the strategies of the current authorities. Christians are accepted to state positions and Christian hierarchs attend government meetings.
If the nonsubjective of the massacre on the coast was to intimidate the minority, this goal has been achieved. Following the bloody suppression of the isolated (although declaratively supported by Iran and Israel at the same time) Alawite rebellion, the remaining minorities decided to compromise with the Damascus government. The agreement with the authorities was concluded by the Drusian communities and besides dominated by the Kurds Syrian Democratic Forces, whose troops are to be integrated into the Syrian Army by the end of the year. As shortly as these points of the agreement with the Kurds entered into force, the Syrian Government assumed control of border crossings and oil fields[20]. The agreement with Kurdish organizations proved to be permanent, which cannot be said about the agreement with Druz. After reports of the image of Islam's prophet Muhammad by 1 of the Druzes at the turn of April and May, there was a violent riot between Sunni and Drusian communities, which turned into armed warfare. any 100 people died in the clashes. After this tragedy, the Damascus government reached a fresh agreement with the squad leaders[21], however, tension persists. The allavians besides live in fear due to the fact that the attacks on this group continue[22].
Currently there is no authority to threaten, which does not mean that anti-government organizations are not operating. The most extremist of them is the muslim State, for which the much more average Hajat Tahrir asz-Sham are “departers of faith”. However, ISIS fighters fight in the deserts in the east of the country without occupying any crucial areas. Among the armed muslim opposition, more extremist than HTS, were the splits from this organization — dissatisfied with the overly mild policy of the fresh authorities, especially not adequate harsh settlements by erstwhile Assad dictatorship officers and tolerance towards the Alawic religion believers.[23]. Of the splits, the Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah group carries out self-judgment and attacks on the Alawick and Shiite civilian population, and Sayf al-Bahr besides fights government forces. At the same time, Al-Qaeda announced its final end in Syria[24]. On the coast and to a lesser degree in another parts of the country there are besides cells of the muslim opposition Front and Syrian People's Resistance[25], grouping supporters of the erstwhile system. These organizations gained importance during the March alavit rebellion, but it was a short-lived success. On a regular basis, tiny groups of militants of both organizations carry out single attacks in different parts of the country, not achieving greater success than troops of Daesz[26]. Armed opposition is the most extremist form of opposition from the erstwhile authorities and involves mainly those who have the least to lose, that is, above all, elder officers of the Assad dictatorship liable for the major crimes. Most of the members of the dissolved Baas organization must operate under conditions of socio-political marginalisation, any of them seeking different ways to find a place for themselves in a fresh reality. It is hard to tell what the future of the thought of arabian socialism itself is in Syria. It is certain that, as in Iraq, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the phase of active armed opposition will shortly end, and the socialists, wishing to survive, will gotta find a fresh place for themselves on the political stage, transforming their ideology or feeding a completely different movement. Joining a spiritual movement like Iraq is unrealistic. The Alavitians together with the Shivites are not adequate in Syria to establish their theocracy as Iranian. Therefore, they have long supported secular ideologies, allowing them to regulation the state in creating appearances of national unity. In the long term, the Baasists can be democratised like nasers and become part of the Syrian liberal-democratic movement. Supporters of Western solutions were destroyed during the Syrian civilian War by both Assad's repression and muslim rebels. They have the possible to be reborn as a serious force, but this requires both time and financial support from abroad. This will be supported by the authoritarian character of the emerging fresh strategy of power. At the same time, it is not expected to return to the scale of repression from the period of Assad's rule, which resulted from the dictator's desire to keep the number position of the elite against the Sunnic majority of society.
Economy
The Syrian civilian War caused catastrophic economical losses in the failure of $800 billion of the Gross home Product, causing an increase in poorness from 33% in 2011 to 90% in 2024 and an increase in utmost poorness at the same time from 11 to 66%. Almost 90% of the population were affected by the food access problem before the war in 2024. This is just a clipping of the problems facing the Syrians and which is accurately presented by the study The Impact of the Conflict in Syria, developed by the United Nations improvement Programme.
The fresh authorities are implementing a plan to liberalise the Syrian economy with a view to economical recovery. many import restrictions have been abolished, many previously inaccessible goods from Turkey and from another countries in the planet have appeared on the market, but besides most frequently imported by Turkey[27]. This was 1 of the factors that led to a immense fall in food prices.[28]. The state of Idlib serves as a model for economical transformation, where under muslim regulation the solutions implemented for years have functioned. Entrepreneurs from this part of Syria see in liberalisation an chance to grow their companies across the country. In turn, the business in Damascus and another areas, which were under the control of Assad six months ago, is afraid of losing the position he owed to protectionist policies and agreements with erstwhile authorities. In fact, Idlibu economical operators are rapidly developing due to changes, while many another companies are in trouble. The situation of average people in areas long controlled by the present authority and lands until late controlled by Assad is completely different. Most Syrians face serious economical problems specified as restrictions on access to cash. Their regular life is waiting in a multi-hour queue for an ATM in which money may be scarce at the end. There's no specified thing in Idlib Province. Another currency policy was besides in the areas controlled by government troops and rebels. Asad subjected the exchange of currencies to strict control and allowed it in limited quantities at an overpriced rate, while Islamists allowed Turkish lira and the US dollar to trade. Today, currency exchange across the country is carried out freely at the marketplace rate.
Political change has led to a shift of the centre of gravity of the Syrian economy towards Idlib Province. Participants from this state benefited a lot from contracts with the fresh government, among others. This can be interpreted as favouring by temporary governments of companies in their mother's area, but supporting effective business in that area, accustomed to operating under conditions of greater economical freedoms, is 1 of the strategies for implementing economical reforms and developing the Syrian economy. The reforms may besides benefit entrepreneurs from Aleppo, Damascus and another major Syrian cities, and over time they will dominate the Syrian marketplace in fresh economical and political realities. However, the improvement of the country is dependent on the abolition of abroad sanctions, which very limited the capacity of the state.
Foreign relations
The biggest challenge for the fresh Syrian authorities is Israel's actions, with which Syria has been formally at war since 1948. Following the collapse of the Assad dictatorship, Israeli troops entered the previously controlled United Nations peacekeeping region and occupied further border areas. In addition, Israeli troops organize rallies for the more distant areas of confederate Syria, with Israeli aviation regularly bombing Syrian military bases and another targets in Syria. In these raids civilians are killed[29]. The 1974 ceasefire agreement had already been breached by Israel by bombing government forces during the civilian War, but after the fall of Assad, it was officially declared void by the Israeli side due to the change of power in Syria[30]. This argument is flawed because, under global law, the fresh government is the successor of the erstwhile in matters of commitments. The situation with the invasion of Israeli forces is humiliating for the fresh Syrian government, which has no forces capable of resisting the invasion and only makes further statements condemning Israeli actions. As leader of al-Sharaa rebels (who then utilized the alias al-Dzulani) he announced that his next mark after Damascus was Jerusalem [31]. After Assad's escape, however, the fresh Syrian leader remains cautious of Israel.
In December, al-Sharaa stated that he wanted peace with all his neighbors[32]He later expressed his willingness to normalize relations with Israel[33], and in early May confirmed that Israeli-Syrian deescalation talks were being conducted[34].
However, peace between these countries is unlikely. The main obstacle is the control over strategically located Golan Hills, whose planting provides military advantage to 1 state over another. According to global law, this is Syrian territory, illegally occupied by Israel, and only the return of these lands makes average relations with a hated neighbour acceptable to Syrians. In addition, it is the territory of the Syrian President's family[35]which makes this issue besides personal. For these reasons, as well as the past of Al-Gary, Israeli decision-makers consider the regular war against Syria inevitable and search its maximum weakening, while creating itself as defenders of Syrian minorities. However, Israel is an occupier for the inhabitants of the late occupied lands.[36]. The Israeli side claims that 1 Israeli defence Force soldier was killed during the operation and 3 were injured — but not as a consequence of fighting, but as a consequence of an accident.[37]. However, losses are likely higher and consequence from armed clashes with rebels.
Israel's actions met with widespread condemnation. The exception is the United States, which, at the time of Joe Biden's presidency, justified these actions.[38]. Israel's actions reconcile the interests of Turkey, which after the fall of Assad is Damascus's main abroad partner. In addition to developing economical cooperation, the Turks train the Syrian army. The question of time is to transform the rotational presence of Turkish troops into permanent. Israel powerfully opposes this, a clear sign of which was the bombing by the Israeli air force of the Syrian bases, which were the likely planned location of Turkish troops. Israeli analysts increasingly indicate Iran, not Turkey, as the main threat[39]. At the same time Turkish-Iranian relations have deteriorated rapidly and have been the most tense in years. In early March, Turkish abroad Minister Hakan Fidan, commenting on Iran's ability to support Syrian Kurds as a counterweight to the Damascus government, stated: "Whoever does not want to be thrown stones at his windows should not throw stones at the windows of others himself". This has been widely interpreted as a threat to support Azerbaijani separatists in the north of Iran in case Tehran sabotages Ankara's policy in Syria[40]. Since the storm of the angry mob to the unprotected Iranian embassy shortly after the overthrow of Assad[41]Syria remains in a tense relation with Iran. The relation between the fresh Syrian authorities and Hezbollah is similar. There were clashes between the Syrian army and Hezbollah on the Lebanese border, whose escalation led to Syria raiding Lebanon[42]. Syria's relation with Russia, the second main patron of the erstwhile power, is different. common relations are characterised by pragmatism and the common desire to keep cooperation, although not on the erstwhile level. The main issue between countries is asylum for Assad — Syria demands his extradition, which is not expected. Russian military bases were maintained, which was not apparent at all — Syria deliberately kept Russia in uncertainty about their future to gain benefits in exchange for agreeing to leave them. Despite the resumption of Syria's contacts with Ukraine, diplomatic relations between countries have not yet been restored. 1 of the conditions put forward by Kiev was the withdrawal by Damascus of designation for the annexation of Crimea and the 4 circuits officially annexed in 2022, which has not yet occurred. Temporary governments do not talk on this issue in order not to alienate either organization to the conflict or the leading global players.
Syria is actively seeking the abolition of global sanctions. However, most of them were maintained, the UK went farthest in their abolition[43]. In addition, Syria's relations with the West are correct, but inactive far from advanced cooperation. European countries have suspended the reception of asylum applications from Syrians stating that, after the overthrow of Assad, the people of Syria have no reason to leave. Much about the plans of the Syrian governing squad can be learned from their statements in global forums. For example, during the Davos forum, the Syrian abroad Minister, Assad al-Shaibani, asked by Tony Blair about the states on which Syria wants to model itself in its improvement plans, indicated Saudi Arabia and Singapore[44]. The demands the West makes against Syria are primarily about the protection of minorities and the demolition of any chemical weapon residue. However, there are besides calls for democratic reforms. Among the minimum demands are the withdrawal of general nominations for abroad jihadists, which will almost surely not be implemented. Tolerating them and giving them a strong position in the country complicates Syria's relations with the world, especially given the large participation among abroad Chechen, Palestinian and Uighur militants. However, the impact of this origin on Syria's relations with the outside planet remains limited and the sanctions imposed on it are increasingly criticised as damaging to the people of the country. US president Donald Trump announced the abolition of American sanctions on Syria. another western countries can shortly do likewise, but the abolition of sanctions by the United States and another countries will be a gradual process. At the beginning of the year it seemed that Syria was willing to denounce the Russian base in exchange for abolishing EU sanctions, but this is contrary to Israel's request that Russian bases be a counterweight to Turkish influences[45].
Syria is very much in request of abroad financial assistance. She may be able to receive another Western aid package. However, if her policy does not change, she will later gotta trust primarily on the support of the Gulf countries, which are already among the main abroad partners of the country.
Summary
The acquisition of power in Syria by Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham group began a fresh chapter in the past of the country. The Syrian State must proceed to focus its efforts on post-war reconstruction, which is slowed down by abroad sanctions. At the same time, a fresh strategy of power is being built. It all indicates that it will be an authoritarian system, based on the patterns tried during the about 10-year muslim regulation in part of Idlib Province. The function of religion in the fresh Syrian state may prove to be little than all these years in Idlib, but it cannot be excluded that more extremist solutions will yet be introduced. The model, which could be described as muslim technocracy, at the same time provides tolerance for spiritual minorities, although their first distrust of fresh authorities after the massacres on the coast has only deepened. Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa has a strong global authority, but Syria's position in the region remains weak. For now, the Syrian State is incapable to respond to threats, specified as the incursion of Israeli troops in its territory, and its existence depends on the protection of Turkey, for which Syria has become an crucial base in the mediate East. However, with the gradual restoration of potential, Syria can take forward ambitious abroad ventures specified as support for Sunni in Iraq, or even an effort to unify historical Syria (including present-day Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Jordan), as the name of Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham would indicate (Levant Liberation Organisation). specified ambitions were demonstrated by Syria during the period of its top power in the 20th century, so they cannot be ruled out in the future. Time will show how the fresh authorities will cope with interior and external challenges.
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[25] Self-translation.
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