The Ukrainian Army, following a fiasco of a large spring-year offensive, completely losing its initiative, moved on to strategical defence and began extended fortification work.
Russian command, contrary to the aura's expectations, “the autumn razputica, but according to Soviet/Russian martial arts, without operational pause, has gone into controversy and leads a number of local lashing operations, which are constantly increasing.
Basically, on the full over 2000 km long front, with a full of 620,000 Russian troops, groups of troops in Ukraine, in highly unfavorable weather and terrain conditions (all-present mud), carry out actions to bleed out the Ukrainian army and find weak points in its defence.
Commander of the Joint Russian Military Forces, designated to carry out peculiar War Operations in Ukraine, General Valery Gierasimov, Having respect to the dimension of the communication lines and their safety and the facilities for demanding more frequent rotation, due to the time of year of the fighting units, he imposed 2 devastating battles on the Ukrainians, fundamentally in the centre of the front, in the back of Donetsk, i.e. Avdieevská and Bachmucká Zachatne Operations of an operational nature. They are accompanied by at least 4 sections of the front, on which Russian units conduct local attacks.
For the sake of clarity of the further part of the report, let me divide it according to the geography from north to south.
Czernickhowsko-Sumsko-Charkovsky front section
Following the withdrawal of Russian troops to the Ukrainian-Russian state border, this over 500 km section of the front is fundamentally passive. The Ukrainian side, however, carries out extended fortification work here, including the digging of anti-tank ditches, the establishment of minefields, the construction of insane tranches, concrete passive shelters, as well as concrete combat shelters and concrete anti-tank barriers – “Dragon teeth”. This was reflected in a study by Ukrainian tv published last week.
Kharkiv as the second largest city Ukraine is inactive occupied by a large and strong Ukrainian garrison and the Kharkiv agglomeration is the key logistical facilities of Ukrainian armed forces units in this section.
Parallelly, the Russian side in the Kursk and Bielgorod direction besides built many fortifications and shielded them with extended minefields. Analysts, however, have late signaled any fresh “activity” of the Russian army.
First,, has been extensively expanded to the in/in the operational direction of the Radio Electronic Combat Unit (WRE), which may indicate an electronic shield of the formation of a group of troops or if it is only an component of the direction shield, in order to reduce the threat of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes.
Second, the number of activities of the Russian Specnazu reconnaissance and diversion groups which penetrate into the area of the Suma and Chernihovsk oblast, carrying out acts of sabotage and attacks of Ukrainian patrols increased significantly. specified broad and deep infiltration by Russian scouts can attest to the plans of the Russian command of the “invigoration” of this section of the front.
In any case, Russian activity hinders Ukrainian leadership from being able to decision the units stationed here, to another demanding front sections.
Buyer's operating direction
On the Russian side, the “West” group commanded by the General operates on this 100 km section of the front. Evgeny Nikiforova. It has units very well equipped with modern weapons, supported by many artillery. However, as war experiences have shown, the “television-show” elite regiments from St. Petersburg and Moscow and surrounding areas showed reasonably mediocre combat qualities.
The “West” group is the 6th Military Army and the 1st Armoured defender Army, supplemented by a forced Ukrainian in the fall of 2022 retreat from Izjum, where while avoiding the lap she abandoned many tanks and another dense equipment.
As a consequence of a partial mobilization by the Russians, many reserve regiments and artillery were sent here.
The formation by the Russian General Staff (Stawka) of specified a strong Russian group under General Nikiforov required the command of the USZ (Ukrainian Armed Forces) to form a numerous, own group.
The Russians lead the border between Kharkovsk and Lugansk amidst actions to push Ukrainian troops beyond the Oskoł River and capture the town of Kupansk.
Units 6 of the National Military Army are trying to penetrate the village of Sinkowka, as well as break the Ukrainian defence into the territory of Zagorujkowka – Timkowka – Ivanówka – Kisłówka. Leading Russian troops and reconnaissance groups identify targets and coordinate fire attacks along the front. Russian artillery is very powerfully operated here, including 9, 244 and 288 Artillery Brigades and 45 large Power Artillery Brigades.
In Sinkovka alone, attempts to enter the village from the north by units of 138 Guards of the Armed Rifles Brigade resulted in failures and losses in men and equipment for the Russians.
The key nonsubjective of the “West” group for the close future is the communication node close Pietropawlovka. However, without gaining the Ukrainian area fortified in the village of Sinkowka, access to the east Kupansk gate is impossible.
Further east, at the tallness of the village of Pierszotrawnewe, the front turns south and here the Ukrainian unit of the 30th Self-Mechanized Brigade attack reserve regiments and the elite 2nd Taman firearm Division. Under the Ivanovian defence of the Ukrainian 32nd Mechanized Brigade, the remaining regiments of the 2nd Taman Division and the armored regiment of the 47th Armoured Division press with strong artillery support. That's the work belt of the 1st Armoured Guard.
The Russian side with air strikes and rocket troops destroyed or damaged most bridges and crossings on the river The slant, which importantly impeded the supply of Ukrainian units and the anticipation of evacuation of damaged equipment. The USZ Command expects that specified a large Russian concentration of troops can attest to a Russian attack planned and maintains a large group here to halt specified Russian activity.
Krasnolimanski operating direction – Terny and Sieriebrianski Forests under the Cremna
On the Russian side, the Lugansk casts the ‘Centre’ group, General Andrei Mordwichev. Originally, Russian forces were deployed here, including elite air-desant troops, to another sections of the front, and the Rate directed General Mordivitzov to order alternatively the recently formed reserve 25th National Army.
The Russians exhibit small activity on this 70 km front segment, however, they have an highly strong and battlesome 90th Armoured defender Division, reliable units of the 20th National Military Army (3 and 144th Mechanized firearm Divisions) and forces of the 2nd Lugansko-Lisician Army Corps.
Donetsk operational direction – 2 parallel battles of General Kuzowlev
General ‘South’ group Sergei Kuzovleva It has behind its back a powerful agglomeration of a million Doneck and a fewer 1000 Gorlovka. It's a large base and a comfortable base for subordinate units. The command strategy of many South Group troops, however, supports the staff of peculiar Operations in Ukraine including personally General Kim.
The stakes were directed here by the detachments and regrouped forces so subordinate to General Mordwigev and Zaporozh.
The main start in this episode is the second period of destructive material, the conflict – so-called Avdieyevsky Adjacent Operation.
In the north of the Russian “sticks” alongside the 114th Mechanized firearm Brigade, as a consequence of the success of the attack, units of the 2nd Military Army entered the formation, i.e. the 21st Mechanized firearm Brigade and the 15th Alekandry Armed firearm Brigade. The Russians, however, are moving forward at the price of considerable losses. The prey is counted at hundreds of meters a day, sometimes at tens.
In fresh days, the main force of the Russians during the fighting for the Awdeejewski territory Reinforced was on the northern flank. In the village of Stepov, Russian troops managed to displace Ukrainian formations from meadows west of railway tracks. In response, Ukrainians powerfully fire on positions taken by Russians utilizing drones and artillery. They run a girdle of German mines, which origin dense losses to Russians.
To halt the Russians, Ukrainian command introduced a unit of 47 of the Self-Mechanized Brigade brought here from Zaporozh, whose American combat infantry wagons M2A2 Bradley ODS proved very effective in fighting Russian infantry and armored vehicles. The 116th Mechanized Brigade and the elite reserves of the 1st Armoured Brigade were besides removed from Zaporozh. The Ukrainian troops effort to stabilise the front line by inflicting dense losses on the attacking Russians.
On the confederate flank of Awdeevsky Bad weather territory complicates the work of BSL operators, and besides restricts the capabilities of sites in field maneuvering (muddy sea). However, this did not prevent Russian troops from achieving certain successes. The Russians liquidated the last opposition center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in SNT Winegradniki. The Ukrainians suffered dense losses and retreated towards the southwest.
The success of the Russian assault troops BARS-11 "Kubań" and 87th Mechanized firearm Regiment enabled the bravado support of vehicles of the 10th Tank Regiment from the 6th Mechanized Division and the company of dense tank support vehicles of the "Terminator" type.
Russian artillery and bomb aviation proceed to “treat” the fortress, focusing on the Chimik territory and approaches to “Winograders”. Against the defenders of Awdievka fortress, among others, the systems of dense fire throwers TOS-1A "Solncepierze", the heaviest guns 2S7 "Little" 203 mm caliber and dense mortars 240 mm 2S4 "Tulipan".
Point defence targets are attacked with light LUMR missiles by Ka-52 and Mi-28NM impact helicopters. Ukrainian CKM or PPK stations are hit with clockwork precision, a rocket falls into a circumstantial window from a distance of 14 km.
It is not without importance that the air support of the attacking Russians is shown by their bombings. The Su-34 bombers carry out bomb attacks with gliders with a satellite guidance module of 250, 500 and 1500 kg, especially on the site of the large Avdeejewski Koxochemical Complex
Ukrainian troops, for their part, with the usage of U.S. GLMRS rockets, Himars and MARS systems attack Russian logistics in Donetsk, destroying fuel bases, petrol stations and military objects. Sometimes failing, civilians, residents of Donetsk, pay for the price.
The fight for Avdieevka, in a consistent assessment by analysts of both sides, is highly bloody and both sides endure dense losses.
At the same time, General Kuzowlev's “South” group went to local counterattacks on tired Ukrainian offensives under Bachmut. This week, the Russian direction of impact on the Syrian general's units from Operation Command "Chorticia" clearly outlined. The Russian attacks have formed into a logical whole, they clearly aim to displace Ukrainians and capture the city of Jar Times.
In addition to the 200th Arctic Armed firearm Brigade, the Russians introduced the erstwhile “Wagner” group and paratrooper units including the 106th Guarded Launching Division from the Tula as well as the 11th Guarded Launching and Storm Brigade, with the support of the 68th Tank Regiment from the 150th Idricko-Berlin Armed firearm Division. There are fighting for strategical hill 215.7 above the village of Kleszczievka, or what is left of it. Soldiers of the 4th Mechanized firearm Brigade, the “Achmat” specnaz (Chiefs) and the mercenaries of a given group “Wagner” storm here.
As a substance of fact, regiments of the 150th Mechanized firearm Division and the 20th Mechanized Division and units of the 68th Army Corps captured Marina after nearly 2 years of fighting and rejected Ukrainians south and north of the city.
To the south of Marina, the Russians began a conflict in a triangle" the village of Pabieda, fortified point “Zwierzyniec”, the village of Nowomichaylówka. The Bleeding Ukrainian 79th Armed Forces Brigade withdrew from Marina, and the 46th Aeromobile Brigade will clearly should be reinforced to halt the Russians. And the reserves begin to run out.
Zaporoże – General Romańczuk tries to regain his lost positions in the summer.
In Zaporozh, the group of Ukrainian troops “Tawrida” was weakened by the dispatch of parts of the brigade under Awdiejewke and at Kupansk. Between the villages of Prijutne and Zwitne, Russian regiments of the 127th firearm Division regained part of the position and only terrible weather frozen Russian activity.
In the alleged Oriechow-Tokmack operational direction, i.e. in the place of the largest breach of Russian defence during the spring-year Ukrainian offensive, about 20 km deep, Russian landing and assault divisions (76 and 7) and 42nd firearm Division mechanized by a series of counterattacks yet stopped Ukrainians and even drove out of many positions. Especially distinguished were the regiments of the Russian 42nd Division of Mechanized Rifles, they went to the celebrated village of Rabotino and occupied the old Russian defensive lines with “Dragon teeth”. Here besides the aura stopped Russian activity.
Dniepr — ‘Bloodhead close Krynkami’
Russian Dniepr Group, late commanded by a talented general Michał TieplinskiWho replaced the old general's bullshit. Oleg Makarevichhas been reorganized and strengthened. Although Ukrainians, contrary to logic and martial arts, inactive keep a cape under Krynkami, Tieplinski isolates and destroys them there, as even the American press describes.
The Ukrainian naval infantry from the 38th and 37th Marines Brigades pays a large donation of blood, in the name of propaganda interests of the squad of president Zelenski. From a military point of view, keeping the base at Krynkami does not make much sense. It's just for propaganda to show in the country and abroad that it's a "piremoga".
General Tiepiliński directed the 810 Guarded Marine Brigade to Krynka received from Zaporozh, and brought in “his” paratroopers: from Bachmut – 83rd Infantry Desert Brigade and 2 regiments of the recently formed 104th Air-Desant Division. He besides has the 10th Specnaz Brigade and 227th Artillery Brigade nearby.
The visions of Mr. Rapke from the German “Bilda” about the planned rally “Abrams” towards Crimea from the cape close Krynkami can be inserted among fairy tales.
In conclusion, Russian forces are constantly increasing. full steamed, switched to “war tracks”, the Russian arms manufacture provides a mass of fresh and renovated equipment and upgraded from the russian resources. Russian reservists mobilized, on the front is their president Putin 240 000, have been rather decently trained and supplement the units of the professional army. "Fungence of artillery ammunition", due to the increase of its own production and imports from North Korea and Iran in the Russians does not exist.
General Valery Earned The Ukrainian army commander, in the circumstances described above, made the only rational decision and moved on to strategical defense, fortifications of his own routings, and as the media writes "review of tactics to defend the lives of their own soldiers as much as possible".
It was simply that the mobilisation resources began to run out in the Ukrainians. all war has its rights, and the key to the conduct of the war are financial resources, war production and demography, and these, in more words, do not form favourably for Ukraine.
With a large deal of probability, it should be assumed that the Russian army commander General Walery Gierasimov will keep the activity of his forces so far, "striping" and bleeding out the Ukrainian army. On weakened Ukrainian troops in the winter of 2024 on selected sections, Russian strikes will be carried out all the time creating reserves, but we will see this only in my opinion in late January.
Krzysztof Podgórski
photo. izvietia
