Warnings coming from Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn are getting louder: Russia can carry out a series of provocations on the east flank of NATO in the coming weeks. Experts no longer usage generics, but indicate circumstantial targets, from refinery to power grids. Latvia is the weakest link of defense. Is the Kremlin preparing an alliance unity test just outside the Polish border?
The material of Virtual Poland, based on statements of politicians and services, is an analysis of scenarios, not an account of events. It's a very crucial reservation, due to the fact that there are forecasts that no 1 would want to see. However, the point remains worrying: more and more people liable for the safety of the region say openly that Russia is preparing for large-scale provocation.
Warnings from Baltic capitals
The alarm is primarily raised by the countries closest to the Russian border. Lithuanian president Gitanas Nauseda and the peculiar services of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia inform that dangerous incidents may happen in the coming weeks. According to them, the Kremlin is looking for a way to test the coherence of the alliance, not exceeding the threshold of open war. This is simply a strategy of balancing on the edge, where all signal of weakness on the side of the West counts.
Provocations under individual else's flag
A recurring subject of warnings is simply a script of actions carried out so that work falls on individual else. The east flank states presume that this time drones utilized for provocation can be armed, unlike erstwhile incidents erstwhile machines did not carry loads. The head of the Polish Defence Ministry Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz warned that Russia was able to scope for intercepted Ukrainian drones to cover its tracks and sow confusion about the perpetrator in the late summertime or autumn.
Maximum version
The most dangerous of the options under consideration assumes reaching for rocket missiles and drones with explosive loads aimed at the military objects of the alliance. It would be a qualitative leap, transforming existing games at the border into a real attack on NATO infrastructure. Analysts point out that even a limited impact of this kind would put an alliance before a dramatic question about the answer, and that is precisely the reason for Moscow's hesitation.
Latvia and circumstantial objectives
According to experts, Latvia is the most vulnerable, considered the weakest link of anti-aircraft and anti-drone defence on the flank. The possible targets include the Orlen refinery in the Lithuanian region Mojek and the transmission lines of the Litgrid operator, crucial for the integration of Baltic networks into the Union energy system. The impact on specified points would combine the military effect with the economical one, reconciling the energy independency of the region that the Baltic countries have been building for years.
Signal sent to Warsaw
The intent of specified actions would be clear. It would be about sending a message to the West: halt supporting defending Ukraine, due to the fact that you will be in serious problem yourself. For Poland, neighbouring the royal circuit and Belarus, this script is peculiarly close. Even if the darkest predictions fail, their very appearance in the mouth of liable politicians shows how thin the border between peace and the crisis on the east line of the alliance has become.
Source: WP News
