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Putin won't start negotiating just due to the fact that Russia no fuel,
Ukrainian drones are getting deeper and deeper into Russia. They've already hit 9 of The 10 largest Russian refineries. Part of the installation has been shut down, and fuel shortages have emerged in many regions. Russia has limited its exports, and even began to import oil products from abroad.
On The West hears voices that Putin will be forced to start talks peacekeepers.
Yes may think a politician who has forgotten that dictatorship does not work by the rules democracy.
War Putina rules not military calculation, but above all logic the endurance of the regime.
Dictator maintains power as long as the surrounding elites believe that it can guarantee them
- Participation in power
- money
- impunity and security
When This religion is shaken, the elite can turn against the leader.
None The triumph over Ukraine weakens Putin. At the same time, however, start negotiations and acceptance of the compromise could be taken by the camera Security, military and political facilities of the Kremlin as a confession Failure.
A In a dictatorship, showing weakness can be the beginning of the end of the leader. And this. Biological.
Putin He can so feel that escalation is safer for him than a compromise. Therefore, in the close future, further violent attacks are more likely. the Ukrainian cities and the increase in the hybrid war against Europe: cyber attacks, sabotage, misinformation and attempts to destabilise support countries Ukraine.
Such actions are not only intended to intimidate Ukraine and the West. They're besides expected to convince Russian elites that Putin inactive controls the situation and only he can guarantee their survival.
Therefore The strategical task of the West cannot be simply to wait for Putin to “ripen ” to the room’. At the same time, the main pillars of his government must be weakened: war ability, gross from the sale of natural materials, industry arms, access to western technology and convincing the elite that Russia He can win this war.
Ukraine She'll gotta endure another phase of aggression. The West must supply for her defence anti-aircraft, long-range weapons, money and political consequences.
Real The negotiations will not start if Putin finds the war costly. Dictators can shift costs to society for many years.
Conversations They will only become possible if Putin's people hold power recognize that the continuation of war threatens their power, wealth and safety more than compromise.
