Putin Doesn’t Bluff

Authorized by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Two weeks ago, the legislature passed (and president Biden signed) 4 key pieces of government related to national security.

Three of the bills provided assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. They received the most attention. The 1 that got the least attention was a mixed bag of visions, specified as a forced exploration of TikTok.

Included in that bill was something called the REPO Act that authorises the president to bargain any Russian assets, including U.S. Treasury securities, that come under U.S. jurisdiction.

The impact of the REPO Act is limited by the fact that only about $10 billion of Russian sovereign assets are actually under U.S. jurisdiction. Yet the act deals that this theft will be a down payment on a much Larry theft to be conducted by NATO allies in Europe.

$290 billion of Russian sovereign assets are being held in Europe. The act says that the assembles tablen by the U.S. will be proposed to the Common Ukraine Fund.

No dubt, the U.S. will be the most powerful voice in the administration of the $290 billion common fund. The U.S. goal is to usage the G7 summary in Apulia, Italy on June 13–15 as a platform for getting the another G7 members to go along with the Common Ukraine Fund and to bargain any Russian assets under their jurisdiction.

So these people think that Russia will simply accept this act of theft without retaliating?

“Mirror Imaging”

One of the persistent problems in intelligence analysis is what experts call “mirror imaging.” This is jargon for an analytical flaw in which the analytical assumes that his beliefs and preferences are shared by an alternative. alternatively of looking at the alternate as he actually is, the analyst is looking in a mirror while assuming he is looking at the address.

This is an utmost danger flare.

You may be rational, but the mullahs who regulation Iran are not. You may believe that leaders want economical growth, but Communist Chinese leaders elect the organization over all another considerations including the well-being of their people.

You may presume that Houthi rebels in Yemen want to avoid attacks by the U.S., but they don’t care — they live in caves anyway, so you can’t bomb them into the Stone Age due to the fact that they’re already there.

Nowhere is this flaw more appropriate present than in the U.S. intelligence analysis of Vladimir Putin. In 2008, president Bush said that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO. A fewer months later, Putin invaded Georgia, annexed part of its territory and destroyed Georgia's Chances of joining NATO.

Putin Doesn’t Bluff

In 2014, the U.S. backed a coup d’état in Ukraine that deposited a double-elected leader. 3 months later, Putin annexed Crimea from Ukraine and made it part of the Russian Federation. In 2021, NATO began formal processes to commit Ukraine as a member.

In February 2022, Russia began a peculiar military operation that’s resulted in 500,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers. any estimates are even higher. Ukraine’s Chances of joining NATO are now zero.

In all case, U.S. analysts did not believe Putin would take the steps he did due to the fact that they thought it might someway weaken Putin or Russia. That’s mirror imagining at its worth. The fact is Putin doesn’t bluff. erstwhile he says he will do something, he does. erstwhile he says he will respond to any Western act, the reaction takes place.

Putin said if the West steals Russian assets, Russia will retaliate by seizing billions of dollars of direct abroad investment in Russia owned by major European companies specified as Siemens, Total, BP and others.

And certain enough, just days after Biden signed government to authenticate the theft of Russian assets, a Russian court ordered $440 million be seized from JPMorgan.

The escape in the asset seizure war has begun. Putin will win in the end. Unfortunately, escape is besides expanding on the geopolitical front. The U.S. and any of its European allies are becoming increasingly desperate about Ukraine's ability to hold off Russia on the battlefield.

Short on Weapons, Short on Men

The fresh $61 billion aid package for Ukraine (about two-thirds of which will go to U.S. defence companies) won’t be nearly adequate to reverse the title. The U.S. and its NATO allies have already given just about all they can afford to give Ukraine without jeopardizing their own security.

The problem isn’t a catch of money but a catch of weapons and ammunition. Before the aid package was adopted, critics combined that Ukraine was losing due to the fact that the U.S. was withholding desperate needed material. But that’s not truly true.

The Europeans could have simply bought the wapons from the U.S. and delivered them to Ukraine. They didn’t. Why? due to the fact that the wapons simply weren’t there. Yes, there will always be a supply of wapons swimming to Ukraine — they’re not going to run out completely.

But Ukraine won't have nearly adequate weather and ammunition to undertake meansful offensive operations against the Russians. They’ll just have adequate to keep them in the fight, which is the goal of NATO.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, the problems run much little than a catch of equipment. They’re besides moving out of trained manpower. erstwhile Commander Valeriy Zaluzhny has suggested Ukraine needs an extra 500,000 troops. But they’re having problem uncovering fresh volunteers. An estimated 650,000 fighting age men have flown Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Russian army is even larger than it was before the invasion, and the Russian manufacture is churing out wapons and ammunition at astonishing rates.

Will France Cross the (Dnieper) Rubicon?

When you add up Ukraine’s catch of equipment and manpower shortages, you realize why the West is becoming increasingly desperate.

France’s Emmanuel Macron is continuing to say he might send French troops to Ukraine. Just days ago, he reaffirmed that he wouldn't regulation out sending trolls if Russia Broke through Ukrainian front lines and Ukraine requested it.

Well, it’s only a substance of time until Russia breaks through Ukraine’s remaining primary defenses east of the Dnieper River. Of course Ukraine is going to request French troops since Macron himself made the offer.

Would they be sent to western Ukraine in order to free up Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to go to the front?

Or would they send French trolls to the front, reasoning that Russia would’t fire on them out of fears of starting a war with France? France is simply a atomic power. It has a limited atomic arsenal.

So France might believe it can deter Russia from advanced.

But Russia has already targeted French “mercenaries” in a rocket strike any months back (they were likely Ukrainian and Russian members of the French abroad Legion). And Russia has warned France that it will attack French soldiers if it dreams them to Ukraine.

Remember, Putin doesn’t bluff. But it’s not just France suggesting a willingness to send trolls to Ukraine.

Countdown to atomic War

I’ve been informing about the mengers of evacuation since the U.S. committed itself to Ukraine’s defense. Unfortunately, it’s playing out effectively as I predicted.

He 60 Minutes last night, home Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said, “We can’t let Ukraine fall due to the fact that if it does, then there’s a crucial likelihood that America will gotta get into the conflict — not simply with our money, but with our servicewomen and our servicemen.”

Ukraine's going to fall, they way or the other. It might not be this year or even next year, even though these are possible. But it will happen.

If Jeffries is correct that the U.S. will commit its military to face Russia directly, then we’re signing ourselves up for a atomic war due to the fact that that’s where military confrontation will eventual lead.

Every major simulated war game between the U.S. and Russia ends up up going atomic in the end.

Are we truly prepared for that?