The turning point of the war on Ukraine?

We are just witnessing the developing conflict of the Avdeevsky territory Reinforced and the industrial city itself 30 thousandths, turned into a fortress – Awdeevka.

The Russian-Ukrainian War is simply a groundbreaking battle. The settlement of this conflict may be in my subjective assessment, the turning point of the war on Ukraine, as was the conflict for the city of Debalcevo (January-February 2015).

The capture of Avdieevka by the Russians, as Debalteva did in 2015, could become the end of war and the beginning of diplomatic solutions. Major players in this war, Moscow and Washington, have a presidential election in 2024, and the erstwhile leaders will search re-election in the glory of the victorious chiefs. 1 and the another commander-in-chief needs a "winner chord".

According to Russian war discipline rules, conducting a defensive operation is only a transitional element, after which, seamlessly, troops defending themselves, go to controversy, to weakened, bled to death by an unsuccessful attack of the enemy's force. At the end of September, it was clear that the large effort being prepared by both Ukraine and NATO countries, the large spring-summer offensive ended in failure. The Russian controversy was so a substance of time. However, it was assumed that in the face of the autumn’s ‘razputica’, it would only happen in winter erstwhile the frost confounds the deep steppe. Commander-in-chief of the Russian Army, General Walery Gierasimov, again, as in his style, amazed Western planners, as he did during the annexation of Crimea, the rebellion on Donbasa, or an expeditionary operation in Syria. The Russians neither intended to wait nor strike on 1 episode. Long-held by experts, scattered many reserves, they were de facto almost evenly spread throughout the long front line. Turns out they weren't deployed there by accident.

The recruitment of volunteers and contract soldiers continued throughout Russia, with a full of about 400,000 in late October. Previously, partial mobilization was made in October 2022 and 300,000 soldiers were obtained. Thus, Russian reserves were constantly expanded, trained equipped. However, only partially they were launched for support and rotation of “bloody”, in moments of desperate defense, the “East” group units General Alexander Romańczuk Zaporozh. Similarly, the bleeding and retreating group of Russian units south of Bachmut, where they were killed, in a heroic full sacrifice of defense, Russian paratroopers, on which the Ukrainian operational and strategical units of the “Chortica” army group of General Syrski insisted

At the end of September 2023, Russian troops almost on the full dimension of the front went to "active defense". On many episodes the Ukrainian side began to draw crisis situations. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Valery Deserved, was forced to shift forces between sections and activate the last reserves. The initiative in the first days of October clearly passed Russian hands and only a dilemmaant can deny it. The (chief Russian command) rate started a big, autumn strategical ‘game’ whose objectives are not mostly known. In the face of the ubiquitous designation of the satellite group of United States spy satellites and the reflection of NATO drones and reconnaissance aircraft, to which, due to the failure of the parties (Russia-NATO) to carry out direct war, the Russian side cannot take measures to destruct them, it is almost impossible to surprise at strategical and operational level. Unnoticeable maneuvering of forces and measures to bring out an unexpected attack seemed impossible, and after all, surprise is the key to the success of counterattack according to the martial arts.

Head of the Russian Army Staff in command of Russian forces on Ukraine Gen. Walery Gierasimov He was aware of it. Hence, he had to find a way to carry out the maneuver, “in the spotlight” and under the eye of the lenses of American satellites. And that was a large challenge. As early as July/August the “mask” of the large Russian maneuver began. Under the cover of the expansion of the units, the redesign, the expansion, the training of the mobilization reserves, in large-town spaces, warehouses, factories, buildings, the large Millennium Agglomeration of Donetsk and the 250-thousand Gorlovka began to place the ammunition supplies, fuel, supplies and weapons planned for the offensive.

Defending the city, the 8th Guarded Military Army was formed in 2017 around Rostov intentionally to operate on Donbas. It was then composed of the rebel and since February 2022, subordinate to the national army of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps and the 2nd defender Corps of Lugansk. The army according to Russian standards was well trained and equipped. It was precisely the well-trained and constantly expanded 1 Donetsk Army Corps that was to be the main force of impact in the framework of the Avdeevsky attack operation. A massive number of guns were directed to Donetsk, including a dense 2S7M ‘Little’ 203 mm, and dense siege mortars 2S4 ‘Tulipan’ 240 mm, which reinforced the 14th Artillery Brigade ‘Kalmius’. besides 238 Artillery Brigades and 944 Artillery Brigades moved the stakes.

In Lugansk, in the Sieriebrian forests under Kremina there appeared units of the recently formed 25th Reserve Army, and under Swatowo in August and September further units of the 1st Armoured defender Army. The units present there and around Lugansk, the Russian 2nd and 41st National Army began to decision backwards in the area of the city of Bachmut, which, in the face of a crisis situation there for Russians, seemed logical. Brigades under the ‘Centre’ group so far General Andrei Mordwichev, progressed smoothly into the confederate Grouping area gene. Sergei Kuzovleva. However, only partially, to strengthen forces under Bachmut. Kuzowlew gross of them was heading increasingly south, into the industrial area of Gorlovka, which did not rise suspicions among American analysts, after all, it is the back base, which is in a hard position of units of the alleged confederate flank of Bachmut. Brigade 2 of the National Army, though they were close to the confederate flank of Bachmut, but besides ... very close to the northern flank of the Avdievsky Reinforced District.

In this cunning way, on October 10 the Russians achieved surprise and concentration of large forces in artillery, armored weapons and infantry, in a ratio of 1:4 to conduct offensive operations under Avdieevka. On the another side of the front was the industrial fortress of Avdieevka, its many garrison and powerful fortifications built by Ukrainians since 2014. many minefields, bunkers, traditionals, concrete multi-level shelters and weapons supplies and ammunition gave Ukrainians a sense of security. On October 10, 2023 at dawn, after the hurricane artillery preparation of nearly 200 caliber guns over 152 mm and bomb blasts, brigades of 1 Donetsk Army Corps and selected units of 8th General Genadiy Anashkin's Military Army passed into the attack. The Russians began a two-sided rounding maneuver. In the northern section of Krasnogorówka, 114 Mechanized Rifles Brigade struck, in respective days of bloody fighting, despite a series of Ukrainian counterattacks, the brigade gained a strategically crucial heap and alleged "tericon", rising over Awdieevka. The city and Ukrainian positions visible to Russian artillery observers are at hand. Strong Ukrainian counterattacks, so far end in bloody losses and failures.

The armored battalion equipped with the latest T-90M "Proriv" tanks and 2 mechanized infantry battalions hit the railway line. The defence of the 116th Territorial Defence Brigade began to fall apart, the Ukrainian 33rd Mechanized Brigade passed to counterattack. The Russians encountered powerful minefields, and their tanks were hit by the hurricane fire of Ukrainian artillery, the "stock" of drones "kamikaze" and the precise fire of missiles guided by Excalibur satellites produced by the USA. Ukrainians supplied by Germany with overhead mines began to mine communication routes.

During the first week of the fighting, Russian forces lost around 150 armored vehicles in this section, of which about 40% will go back.. Large losses from clustered (delivered by the US) artillery missiles were sustained by Russian infantry. The battlefield was filled with shells and wrecks of Russian armored vehicles. At the price of dense losses, the 114 Russian mechanized firearm brigade carried out the task and breached Ukrainian defence lines and most importantly maintained along the railway line leading to the city. Ukrainian defence was in crisis.

On the confederate “sticks” of the Russian attack of the Wodjanoje Episodes – Siewiernoje – Tonenkoje, the legendary rebel units of this included: 1 troops of the Slavic Armed firearm Brigade, 13 independent armored battalion “Somala” and exploratory battalion “Sparta” from the 1st Doniecki Army Corps. The Russians succeeded and moved north. In fact, towards the village of Tonenkoje and close the neighbouring village of Siewiernoje Russian elevated positions are already located in the same forest belt from the confederate outskirts of both settlements. On the jasinotskaya motorway node towards the Avdeevian industrial zone, the attack units belonging to the 255th Motorised firearm Regiment moved north of Lane Jasinowski by about 500 metres. This is crucial compared to the erstwhile 10 years of standing at the site.

Here in the south, in the second pitch, units of the 41st National Army appeared including the 55th Independent Mountain firearm Brigade Mechanized and 6th Mechanized Infantry Regiments and 580th Artillery Regiment. On the Ukrainian side defends 53 Mechanized Brigade and approaches led from reserves 1 The Armoured Brigade. The distance between the arms of the Russian “sticks” is about 9 km. The Ukrainians lost the chance to deliver supplies by rail, they remained 1 road and the roads of the field, and these autumns softened.

The conflict of Awdeejewski The Fortified territory (AWRU) is gaining momentum, both sides attach large importance to it. The command of the Ukrainian defence section was late visited by General Deserved and the president Vladimir Putin visited Rostów and the command of operations in Ukraine, where Gen. Gierasimov reported on the improvement of the situation on the front in this on the course of the Avdeejevian attack operation. The conflict is fought in the area of the work of the Russian staff of the “South” group of General Sergey Kuzovlev, 1 of the most talented Russian commanders, but the full operation is directed, by scale, by most likely the command of the Russian army in the Ukraine in Rostov, or General Walera Gierasimov.

The Russians clearly take their time, put themselves on firepower and constant force on the defending Ukrainian troops. The conflict is material, like the conflict of Bachmut. It seems that we are behind the first stage, so to teardrop the ringing of Ukrainian fortifications and drag Ukrainian reserves into the fight. The conflict itself is only getting momentum, the Ukrainians have a ‘narrow throat’, which can supply supplies to the fortress and evacuate the wounded (one road and 9 km between the utmost points of the Russian ‘sticks’). In Russian operational thinking, there is most likely an effort to repeat the operation of taking Lisyczańsk and Siewierodoniecka, where the bilaterally winged Ukrainian garrison threatened by lap and demolition from the agglomeration withdrew.

CDN

Photo by RIA Novosti

Krzysztof Podgórski

Przemyśl Poland nr 45-46 (5-12.11.2023)