On the night of Tuesday for Wednesday there was a massive Russian attack on Ukraine. Drones besides violated Polish airspace. respective of them were shot down by the military and found far from the border, including in Łódź.
Poland will close the border with Belarus. It's a reaction to the planned maneuvers.
Donald Tusk in the Sejm, among others, said that this is not just a Ukrainian war. "This is simply a confrontation that Russia has spoken to the full free world," he stressed. He besides admitted that "we have critical days ahead of us". He meant this year's collapse.
The Prime Minister has already announced that the border with Belarus (including rail crossings) will be closed due to manoeuvres. This will happen at precisely midnight on Thursday night, Friday, erstwhile this year's collapse begins.
Fall 2025. What do we know about maneuvers just off the Polish border?
According to authoritative announcements, the main phase of Russian-Belarusian strategical manoeuvres will take place on 12-16 September 2025. For years they have been part of the political-military force on the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance (by this they are called "a scare on NATO"), including Poland and the Baltic States.
Exercises, referred to by the Russian Minister of Defence as a "key event" for both armies, will take place in the field in Russia and Belarus. Unlike erstwhile years, the tasks are to be carried out mainly in north-eastern Belarus, which the Minsk government tries to present as a deescalation motion (to which we will return).
According to Lithuanian intelligence, a full of 30,000 soldiers will participate in this year's maneuvers, of which 8,000 will be in Belarus. The Russian and Belarusian authorities study lower numbers, speaking of reducing the quota to around 7-8 1000 personnel, compared to over 200 000 Zapad-2021 participants.
The exercise script is to officially presume defensive surgery, including "repel enemy air strikes" and "fight against illegal armed formations". This year's edition seems modest, but raises legitimate concerns: for example, provocations in the kind of passing drones... But that is not all.
The collapse will be smaller, but no little dangerous. What could happen?
The scale of manoeuvres is lower than in erstwhile years, but that does not mean any little danger. The simplification in the number of soldiers is most likely due to the massive engagement and losses of the Russian army in Ukraine.
Analysts from the Center for east Studies indicate that the exercise may be a direct preparation of soldiers from a fresh draft before they are brought to the front. It should besides be remembered that Zapad-2021 maneuvers utilized Russia to take the starting positions for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A peculiar concern is the expanding introduction of atomic component exercises into the scenario. Belarusian officials explicitly announced that Zapad-2025 would include an effort to jointly plan the usage of atomic weapons in Russia and Belarus.
During the maneuvers, a new, capable of carrying atomic warheads, the ballistic rocket Oriesznik, which Vladimir Putin promised to deploy in Belarus as early as 2024.
As Dr Dariusz Materniak, chief of the Polish-Ukrainian Portal, emphasizes, "Belarus remains an instrument in the hands of the Kremlin, utilized for both political competitions with the West and straight for aggressive actions".
Minsk leads disinformation and talks about deescalation and the desire for dialogue, but his actions deny it. According to experts, even if the likelihood of an open war with NATO is presently low, we must be prepared for military incidents, airspace violations or hybrid activities.
Unfortunately, specified tension will be something average at our east border in the close future, which is shown by fresh events. For the first time (last night) a large condition of drones flew over Poland straight from Belarus.
