Electoral Forecast 2023 - politiks.pl

Election forecast politiks.pl after adding votes undecided in %.

Method

We utilized polling results to make the forecast, which besides carried out them in 2019, and then assigned them weights on the basis of the full mistake (0.1 little for each 5 pp.): Kantar (weight 1), IBSP (weight 0.9), Pollster (weight 0.9), Estimator (weight 0.8), IBRiS (weight 0.8), Social Changes (weight 0.7), CBOS (weight 0.6). After calculating the average, we received the following differences from the election result:

-ZP/PiS 5% (this means that this organization has been overestimated by 5% (not percent points!)

-KO -5% (i.e. undervalued by 5%)

- fresh Left 10%

-Third Road -9% (In this case, we divided the score by 3 due to the PSL data only, which, according to fresh separate polls, accounted for ~1/3 of 3rd Way support)

- Confederation -16%

We then calculated the weighted average of the latest studies of the above-mentioned studios with the percent mistake amendment and counted the votes undecided proportionally to support receiving the final results.

Finally, we assigned the winning tickets.

Distribution of tickets based on the election forecast of politiks.pl.

Did you like the article? See what else you can find on our website!