I'm not going to build tension, and I'm going to compose it straight: I think today's most realistic script is without any plots or lace schemes. For months there has been a conflict between the Shojgu (and higher command) and the Prigozhin. The second had legitimately accused of incompetence, willlessness, laziness, inability to the highest military authorities.
Here I am able to realize as much as possible - since as a consequence of Russian inability, deficiency of coordination under Bachmut, since last summer, he has lost years of trained and experienced people from his army, since his people have lost so needed morale, the increasing anger and bitterness is as understandable as possible. It is worth reminding only circumstantial to Russian nature, mindless and tragic "meat storms" under Bachmut. A complete deficiency of respect for the life of an average soldier. This is an component which, with the probability that is bordering definitely, was not an component of conspiracy or appearance play.
Then there was information about the obstructions or even attacks of the Russian army on a group of vasners. The last specified attack occurred a fewer days ago. In the video, we saw the effects of explosions, torn up debris. Was that reliable information? There may be more conspiracy and false information, but on the another hand, the Russian authorities may have done so on purpose, knowing of the coming over. Interviews of Western states present say that preparations for the coup and rebellion have been known for weeks. The Russians themselves could have known. So this component can be more undermined, but it is inactive very credible.
Another case. In order for Wagnerian troops to scope this close to Moscow, it was essential to pass them virtually without any opposition for almost a 1000 kilometres (with Rostov over Don, to Moscow is about a 1000 kilometres!). We've all seen helpless military checkpoints on the Primogyn rally way yesterday. We've all seen his troops take over the buildings of the Ministry of Defence and Home Affairs in Rostov. We've all seen inept and easy driven blocks. yet - we have all seen peaceful and affirmative Russians to the Primogyn troops. It is in my opinion that there is simply a immense image blow and definitely could not be included in the plot, the game of appearances.
A large cost is besides the large morale breakdown on the front. And during the ongoing counteroffensive. How do soldiers sitting in trenches feel, proceeding Putin flee Moscow? There's no way this apparent effect is included in the cost of this possible operation. Let us besides note that respective units, troops, have besides declared the transition to the Prigozyn side. This component is as credible and natural as possible, due to the fact that in the pits of the army has been going on for many months utmost discontent with the inept actions of the command. And the highest command besides knows that, which is why the escape of Putin, Medvedev and many people of power from Moscow was another credible and natural element. There were quite a few analyses and graphics on the net with planes flying to Petersburg. They could truly feel the threat, knowing that the Primogyn, as a man whose life's profession is to wage war, could be for the army a very natural, full of charisma and experience leader. A very real script was 1 where the military could control to its side. rather credible and logical to me.
Notice that throughout the day the public was fed sensational information about the rebellion. Prigojin appeared to be everything as an erratic lunatic, but a very desperate and effective lunatic. On the another hand, Putin and the full lineup - their image completely collapsed. Helpless police, military, shot down 7 planes and helicopters, tragical roadblocks and completely ineffective checkpoints. The state and power are completely surprised, helpless and vulnerable. Putin, Medvedev - moving like rats from Moscow. Sad, car face of Solowev... Complete image disaster. A complete disaster for the indicator of charisma, Putin's leadership. Totally embarrassing. This component would not be acceptable in any variant of lace intrigue and appearance play.
Throughout the layout, the mediation of Lukashenko, the retreat of vasners and the provision of shelter for the Primogyn troops in Belarus is highly worrying and interesting. What does that mean? About the Lukashenko and Prigozhina arrangement? surely this is simply a fewer affirmative points for Lukashenko's fatal image. It may besides prove that it was 1 large bluff of the Prigozhyn, who first showed up as a desperate lunatic who had been sentenced to death, but yet it turned out that he was a good player and strategist, who was definitely aware of his momentary advantage in the chaos of Russia, but besides aware of his lost position in a fewer days or weeks. In this way, he could besides buy himself time all day long to agree with Lukashenko to retreat to Belarus, which in geographical position, was the only sensible place to escape.
What is the meaning and consequences of what happened in Russia yesterday? They'll decide the next days, weeks or months. surely for Ukraine - regardless of the truth, hidden under the possible game of appearances - the events of yesterday are affirmative in many respects, and this may delight us.
