On Sunday, the president of the muslim Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, was killed in a chopper crash. In addition to the president, 8 more people died in the crash, including the head of the Iranian MFA, Hosejn Amir Abdolloahian. president Raisi was a trusted man of the ultimate leader, Ayatollah Chamenei. any claimed that after the death of 85-year-old Chamenei, Raisi would be the head of the muslim Republic.
Raisi's death comes at a hard minute for the muslim Republic. For months, the mediate East boiler has been boiling. The struggles in the Gaza Strip have continued, and the pro-Iranian formations from Syria to Yemen, run operations aimed at the interests of the US and Israel in the region.
Who was Raisi? What does his death mean for interior games in the muslim Republic of Iran? And how will his death affect the political puzzle in the mediate East region?
Disaster
On Sunday morning, president Raisi went to the Azerbaijani-Iran border, where he met with president Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev. The gathering was connected with the solemn beginning of the dam on the border of the River Araks. Following the ceremony, the president of Iran boarded his chopper and flew to Tabrizu, North Iran.
However, the aircraft did not scope its destination. About 1:30 p.m. helicopter, with president Raisi, crashed on board in the mountains of the Iranian state of East Azerbaijan. The rescue action rapidly set off to search for survivors, but dense fog, rain and strong wind made the search difficult. Only late in the evening and thanks to the assistance of a Turkish drone equipped with night vision, the rescue squad arrived at the site of the disaster. But it was besides late. Nobody survived the crash.
In view of the tension that exists on the Israeli-Iran line, conspiracy theories about the assassination appeared immediately, as if Israeli services were to be behind the crash of the presidential helicopter. However, there is no evidence of this. Looks like the origin of the crash was bad weather. Prior to the weekend, the Iranian weather organization issued a informing about the expected weather breakdown in East Azerbaijan Province. At the time of the accident the weather conditions were so bad that the visibility reached 5 meters. It is besides worth noting that the crashed chopper is Bell 212 which Iran had already bought before the 1979 muslim Revolution. Therefore, it cannot be excluded that the method condition of the chopper could besides have affected this accident.
A full of 9 people died as a consequence of the disaster. In addition to president Raisi, the head of the Iranian MFA, Hosejn Amir Abdolloahian, politician of the East Azerbaijan Province, and a typical of the highest leader in that province, was killed. Together with the presidential chopper to Tabriz, there were 2 more helicopters on board, on which members of the government were besides on board, but they arrived safely.
Photo from the crash siteWho was Raisi?
Before we proceed to represent the character of Ebrahim Raisi, we must remember that Iran is simply a theocratic republic. So you are headed not by the president, but by the rahbar, the ultimate leader who combines the qualities of a political and spiritual leader.
Ebrahim Raisi was considered a trusted man of the ultimate leader of the muslim Republic of Iran, ajatollah Chamenei. He held many influential positions over the years, including the head of the judiciary or a associate of the Assembly of Experts. He ran for president twice – in 2017 and 2021. He won only the second election, which was held in the atmosphere of scandal, after most average candidates for the office of president were rejected by the alleged Guardian Council, which decides who can compete in the election and who cannot.
Raisi was rather a controversial figure. The black card in his biography was peculiarly 1988 erstwhile he joined the alleged Death Committee. It was a peculiar four-member Committee tasked with executing the order of Ayatollah Khomeini on the execution of opponents. The exact number of victims of the Death Committee is unknown, but it is estimated that at least 2,500 prisoners have been killed within six months. However, any sources give much higher numbers and as the advanced limit indicate 30,000 killed.
Iranian commentators believed that Ayatollah Chamenei favored Raisi and prepared him for the function of ultimate leader. This explanation has gained fans especially in fresh years, due to the deteriorating wellness of 85-year-old Ayatollah Chamenei. At the same time, the question of succession in Iran has been debated for years and various possible Chamenei successors have been identified over the years. Therefore, theories about Raisi as another ultimate leader have always been conducted on the border of political speculation and should have been approached with any distance.
Raisi and ChameneiWhat about Raisi?
According to the Iranian constitution, power after Raisi's death was taken over by the first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber. However, he will regulation only temporarily, as the election of the fresh president should take place in the next 50 days. That means the beginning of complicated political games. For apparent reasons, we do not yet know the names of all possible candidates, but it seems that the peculiarly strong candidate is Mohammad Ghalibaf.
He is simply a retired General of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps and erstwhile chief of Iranian police. After taking off his uniform, Ghalibaf began his political career. He was mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017, and has been a talker of Parliament since 2020. Ghalibaf is simply a conservative who inactive maintains close contact with the military.
Ghalibaf's election as president would fit well into the wider trend that has occurred in Iranian politics in fresh years. This is about the ever-increasing influence of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps. The Guardians are closely associated with the position of ultimate leader and usage this to introduce Corps members: present or retired to key positions in the state.
It must be remembered that Ghalibaf has already applied for the post of president 3 times since 2005 and has lost all time. Therefore, at this stage, it seems that the name of the fresh president is inactive an open issue.
Especially as the script cannot be ruled out that with its candidacy will be performed by the current first Vice president Mohammad Mokhber, who, after Raisi's death, took over his duties. Mokhber is not a front-plan politician, but has quite a few influence. Mokhber, for example, sits on the Council for Purposes, which, despite its bizarre name, performs crucial functions, settling disputes between Parliament and the Council of Guardians.
Mohammad GhalibafSuccessive crisis
Raisi's death comes at a very hard minute erstwhile it comes to Iranian home policy. The muslim Republic is going through a deep legitimacy crisis. The bad economical situation of the country combined with the constant veto of candidatures of more average politicians led to political apathy among voters.
In this year's parliamentary elections, only 41% of the eligible voted, which is the worst consequence since the muslim Revolution. According to unofficial data, only 24% of the eligible people voted in Tehran alone. erstwhile it turned out that any candidates did not get 20% of the required votes and a second circular was conducted, attendance in the Iranian capital fell to just 8%.
It is simply a large problem for the muslim Republic authorities, who are trying to make election attendance as advanced as possible. The Iranians respect the advanced turnout as legitimising for governance.
After Raisi's death, it will be hard for the authorities to mobilize the Iranians to vote. Political apathy among voters, combined with a short run period (the election will take place on June 28, could lead to Iran breaking another evidence and attendance will not exceed 40%. It will be harder to mobilise voters due to the fact that there are no clear candidatures that could attract people to polling urns. Especially since more average politicians most likely won't get approval to take off.
Middle east crisis
Raisi's death occurs at a very hard minute not only due to the conditions of interior policy, but besides due to the wider global situation in the mediate East. The situation in the region has not been so tense in a long time.
The Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip lasts more than six months, and its effects have already spread throughout the mediate East, starting with the skirmishes at the Lebanese-Israeli border, by Hutich attacks on merchant ships, ending with the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Israeli Republic's retaliatory shelling of Israel.
In specified an atmosphere, many interior and external threats, the election of the fresh president of Iran will be a very hard task.
However, it should not be imagined that the fresh president will importantly change the abroad policy of the muslim Republic. In Iran, abroad policy is not created in the President's office, but during the gathering of the alleged ultimate National safety Council. It's a 23-person body, which includes both representatives of the ultimate leader and president. It sets out broad lines in abroad and defence policy. The decisions of the Council are subsequently approved by the highest leader, who has a final opinion here.
It is only erstwhile a Council decision is approved by the ultimate leader that it is being forwarded to the president for implementation.
In the muslim Republic unchanged
The crash of the presidential chopper triggered a political earthquake in Tehran. Within 50 days, Raisi's successor, and both the interior and global situation, must be chosen, making it hard to make any changes in the highest positions of power.
Moreover, if the theories about Raisi actually being prepared to take on the function of the fresh ultimate leader, the substance becomes even more complicated. Ajatollah Chamenei is 85 years old and the question of succession should be resolved even before his death – even if by informal agreement. So to avoid the crisis and the faction's fight erstwhile choosing a fresh ultimate leader.
Raisi was a loyal man, both to the ultimate leader and the thought of the muslim Revolution. Choosing his successor in specified a short time will so be difficult, but not impossible. As I mentioned, the long-term plans of the muslim Republic are developed by the ultimate National safety Council and not by the president himself. The strategy is so not looking for a political virtuoso, but alternatively a loyal and efficient organizer.
However, it cannot be said that the election of the fresh president is of no importance. Well, who will be president now may indicate what direction the muslim Republic will take in the following years. If it is Ghalibaf, it will mean a further increase in the influence of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps. The choice, for example, of a average policy could indicate that Iran would want to reopen negotiations with Americans on the return to the 2015 atomic deal.
Personally, however, I believe that in the current situation, erstwhile the mediate East is in turmoil, there is simply a full-scale war in Europe and Ayatollah Chamenei is already 85 years old, the muslim Republic cannot afford any revolutions in politics and will want to keep the current course.
