VIRGIN decision of president Karol Nawrocki shook the Polish political and fiscal scene. The head of the President's Chancellery, Zbigniew Bogucki, explicitly announced: there will be no consent to a government-planned 15% increase in excise work on alcohol and fuelwhich was to enter into force on January 1, 2026. This is simply a immense blow to Donald Tusk's budget plans and at the same time a immense relief for millions of Poles who feared another wave of expensiveness. But is this the end of the raise? Unfortunately, the reality is more complicated, and the coming months announce the escalation of the conflict on the Presidential Palace line – the Chancellery of the Prime Minister.
This announcement is not only the fulfillment of the President's election promises, but besides the strategical decision that puts the government against the wall. On the 1 hand, consumers will be relieved to know about blocking the drastic increase in the prices of favourite products. On the another hand, the Ministry of Finance, desperate for money to deliver ambitious electoral promises, must now find alternate sources of income. The situation is dynamic and shows that 2025 and 2026 will sometimes be intense disputes over the form of the Polish economy and citizens' portfolios.
Presidential veto: No more giant excise raise?
President Nawrocki's decision is definitive and has been passed on to the public with full determination. Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the President's Chancellery, in an interview with Radio ZET left no illusions: "If the president said he would not sign a taxation increase bill, he would not sign specified a bill. That's all”. This unequivocal position means that The plans of the Ministry of Finance to drastically rise the excise work on alcohol and fuel by 15 percent from 1 January 2026 will go to the basket.
The government argued that higher alcohol prices were intended to service public health, translating into lower intakes and lower alcohol diseases. However, the alcohol manufacture has already warned that specified a sharp increase in excise work is “A thunder from the sky”, which will hit both producers and consumers, threatening to decline profitability and increase the shadow economy. Although the president will block a 15% raise, will not completely halt the increase in excise work on alcohol. A smaller increase in excise work rates by 5 percent is already enshrined in the bill passed by the erstwhile government of PiS and accepted by the erstwhile president. This automatic increase will enter into force regardless of the current decisions, which means that the prices of alcohol will increase, but much little than planned by the current government.
The alcohol manufacture has breathed, the Confederate triumphs
For the Polish alcohol manufacture President's announcement is huge relief and stability In hard times. Money.pl reports that a 15 percent increase in excise work could reduce the sector's profits even by 25-30 percent compared to 2025. specified a drastic decline in profitability would endanger many tiny and medium-sized enterprises and would besides hit jobs. Now manufacturers can breathe a small and plan a strategy for next year with little burden.
The President's decision was met with enthusiastic support from the Confederate, who had opposed government plans from the beginning. Mr Michał Wawer estimated that "So large and abrupt increase in rates of excise work on alcohol is an attack on Polish entrepreneurs". Independent portal.pl quotes Waver, who warned against consequences for the full industry, stressing that "The government's search for additional funds in the budget is linked to a breach of the stableness and predictability of business in Poland". The Confederacy hopes that Nawrocki will honour the agreement with Sławomir Mentzen to block taxation increases, which is part of a broader agreement concluded before the presidential election.
More wets on the way? Government-President conflict escalation
The taxation increase blockade is most likely just the beginning. The head of the President's Chancellery, Zbigniew Bogucki, did not regulation out further wets, although he reserved that the details of all projects are not yet known. “There may be an increase somewhere, and a decrease somewhere” – he said. This means that the president will survey each task individually, and if he finds tax-raising elements in it, He'll most likely usage veto law.. Experts foretell that the coming months will bring an escalation of the conflict between the president and the government, with each taxation bill becoming a possible battlefield.
This is the President's second loud clash with the government in a fewer days. On Thursday, Karol Nawrocki vetoed the alleged "windmill Act", which was intended to liberalise the rules on wind turbine construction. The Rzeczpospolita portal reported the sharp reaction of Prime Minister Donald Tusk: "Bad will or terrible incompetence of president Nawrocki. possibly both. His veto means more costly current for all Poles”. Nawrocki replied that he would not agree to "A blackmail against society" and is “the voice of Poles”, announcing its own draft law freezing energy prices, separated from the rules on windmills. The TySol portal underlines that the president can propose alternatives to government taxation plans, which will further exacerbate competition.
Government fiscal trap. What happens to budget 2026?
The conflict around excise work is simply a reflection of a wider dispute over the direction of state fiscal policy. Donald Tusk's government is desperately looking for additional sources of backing for the expanding budget, while the president fulfills his promise of not raising taxes. The Independent.pl portal reminds that Nawrocki signed a commitment to block increases before the elections, which is now working in practice. Each subsequent veto of the president will be a test of the strength of the ruling coalition, and if Nawrocki maintains a hard line, Tusk may have a serious problem with the implementation of his budget plans.
The problem is that the government is inactive looking for additional sources of income. The Ministry of Finance is preparing a full package of increases for 2026, including an increase in taxation on sweetened beverages, excise duties on tobacco or taxation on winnings. Money.pl portal warns that “In 2026 Poles will feel a wave of taxation increases in their wallets”. Even if the president blocks any of them, others can go through parliament and hit his desk, which means that The fight for the tallness of public tribute will proceed at the best. For Poles, this means the request to keep track of information about subsequent decisions of the authorities, which may importantly affect home budgets.
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The president is blocking 15% of the excise duties. The Tusk government is trapped, will Poles breathe?