Pressure on Russia, force on Hungary. Ukrainian oil blasts of the best man

osw.waw.pl 1 week ago

Analysis

2025-08-27

Pressure on Russia, force on Hungary. Ukrainian oil blasts of the best man

OCS

On 22 August, Ukrainian unmanned aircraft hit the distribution station of Uniecz in the Briansk Oblast for the 3rd time in a month, which caused the pipeline to halt transmission Best man of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. On the same day, Budapest and Bratislava sent a letter to the European Commission asking for support in ensuring safety of supply, while Kiev's actions were described as “totally unacceptable”. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán besides referred the complaint to president Donald Trump, and the head of the Hungarian diplomacy Péter Szijártó recalled Ukraine's energy dependence on Hungary: in 2024 40% of its electricity imported came from there. In a akin spirit, the head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs of Slovakia Juraj Blanár pointed out that the attacks on energy infrastructure “are not serving the interests of Kiev” as withRussian oil refinery in Bratislava produces diesel, which is to cover 10%Ukraine's request for fuel.

On August 24, president Volodymyr Zelenski stated that Kiev had always maintained a relationship withBudapest, and now the existence of the best man oil train depends on the position of the latter. The way accounts for 6% of all Russian oil exports to the alleged far-flung abroad countries, besides provides transportation to Belarusian refineries and the Ust-Ługa terminal.

Several-day interruptions in the supply of natural materials do not pose a crucial threat to the energy safety of Hungary and Slovakia. With oil attacks Ukraine is trying to get Hungary to quit blocking its European integration and to harm the Russian oil sector. However, Budapest will not change its attitude – a run before the parliamentary elections in 2026. Fidesz builds on stressing the threat that neighbouring countries will supposedly bring to the EU.

Comment

Ukraine seeks to origin as much harm as possible to Russia's energy industry, origin oil deficits in its interior marketplace and reduce Russian exports of this natural material. The attacks on the best man and the anticipation of cutting Hungary off from its supplies are likely to besides be utilized to force Budapest to amend its decision to block the beginning of the first negotiating cluster with Ukraine by the EU Council (Cluster, open up! Chances and threats of Ukraine on the way to the EU). Zelenski lobbied for it in the United States, trying to influence Trump to convince Orbáto change his head – the U.S. president spoke to the Hungarian Prime Minister about this after the Ukrainian leader's last visit to the US. Ukraine could suspend supply via pipeline through its territory. However, until now, she has not taken specified a step, most likely fearing that Budapest and Bratislava would address the arbitration tribunal.
Several days' oil supply interruptions do not seriously endanger Hungary's and Slovakia's energy security. While both countries cover most of the natural material needs by the Druzba, EU regulations require stock retention for 90 days, and individual companies besides have their reserves (e.g. Slovnaft – for 10 days).
Slovakia's refusal to supply electricity and gas to Ukraine seems unlikely. Exports are profitable and expanding (there has been a crucial increase in gas transmission during this year). At the same time, it gives Bratislava an argument in the Brussels talks about the concreteisation of the package of safeguards promised by the EC to be introduced in view of the possible negative effects for Slovakia on the planned full ban on imports of hydrocarbons from Russia. Bratislava besides has limited opportunities to influence traders with Kiev.
Hungary will not halt exports of electricity to Ukraine due to its profitability and will keep the negative position of the European neighbour. This issue is central to the Orbán government's communicative before the April 2026 parliamentary elections. Fidesz presents the possible of joining the EU as the biggest threat to national interests.
For the Kremlin, further transmission of the best man strategy is crucial for political and economical reasons. In the context of EU sanctions, the usage of oil is the only option to sale natural material to the EU's profitable interior market. The continuation of supplies not only brings financial gains to Moscow, but is besides seen as a tool for influencing the EU course. Dependence on Russian natural materials, as is seen in Hungary and Slovakia, undermines its unity in its policy towards Russia, making it difficult, for example, to pass sanctions against Russia.