In the preceding article, I rushed to the conclusion that the Turkish imperial task had failed. Until 2 weeks ago, however, no publically available information indicated that the Idlib Islamists would launch a general offensive on Syria al-Assad and that they would overthrow the country within a week and a half.
The capture by militants of Hajat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) of the erstwhile Umajjad capital changes the geopolitical scenery of the mediate East completely. As the Turkish columnist wrote Jusuf Kaplan, The acquisition by the militias controlled and trained by Turkish secret services of the muslim caliphate's capital begins a fresh "age of Turkey". The change in the narratives of the authoritative factors of Anatolia related to events in the confederate neighbours looked funny: erstwhile the Iranian Minister for abroad Affairs on 6 December Abbas Araghchi arrived in Ankara, his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan (for the last thirteen years he was the manager of the Turkish interview Millî Istihbarat Teşkilati) assured him that his country "does not carry out any secret operations" along the 820-kilometre-old border with Syria, but "carefully monitors the situation", but respective hours after the fall of Assad president Erdogan acknowledged that Ankara provides information and intelligence support to HTS.
World format leader
In his next statement, Erdogan went further, stating that “There are now only 2 more experienced leaders left in the world: me and Vladimir Putin. There are no more others.’ This seems to be besides much of a compliment to Putin, as his "special military operation" in Ukraine proved to be a military embarrassment and geopolitical defeat of Russia, the Sultan, meanwhile, since the failed American coup in Turkey on 15 July 2016, made no mistake: Ankara takes tiny steps but never backs – the Turks have not lost any territory that they have since occupied.
As summarized by the cynical Turkish analyst Abdulkadir Selvi, after Damascus was captured by Turkey's allies, Erdogan advanced to Dünya leaders – a planet leader. In a strategical imagination of Turkish analysts, the fresh Syria is to become Ankara's client: The Levant Liberation Organization is to combine with the Turkish protector the bonds of gratitude and relationship followed by contracts, supplies, investments, concessions for the extraction of energy and mineral resources, and the Syrian armed forces are to become the Türk Silahli Kuvvetleri branch.
Ankara gains 800 kilometres of strategical depth in the south. "He who controls Syria controls the east Mediterranean, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It can easy scope the Gulf and the Indian Ocean." The possible of triggering the domino and overthrowing the secular governments of Jordan and Egypt has opened up to Turks and Islamists, allowing Muslims to yet orbit Israel. They fear this leader of the judaic state, seeking to safe specified a script by taking a position on the border with Syria, giving Israel a strategical advantage. Destroying the remaining military possible of Asad is expected to give the Jews more time. However, it became an uncontested geopolitical fact that the Turkish "imperium" now borders straight with the judaic "imperium".
In my opinion, it would now be logical for Muslims to transfer the confrontation from the Turkish-Israeli border at Golan Hills to the British protectorate in Jordan, de facto belonging to Israeli strategical space. The next step is to overthrow the junta General Abdela Fatah el-Sisi, being in a functional alliance with the judaic state and the US against the people of the Gaza Strip and against the Muslim population of their own country.
However, the Turks will gotta make effective methods of maintaining Syria in orbit of their influence. The experience of the Nile should give Ankara thinking, for an effort to make Muhammad Mursi any kind of “bejlerbei” of Egypt ended in disaster – and this long before the coup of July 3, 2013, performed in defence of the laicism and western modernity of the army. Syrian Islamists can besides balance the influence of Anatolian capital raising from Gulf countries, weapons from Russia and ideologies from the West. In his first speech at the large Umajjad Mosque of 8 December, Abu Muhammad of Golan Hills focused on a secondary issue: the fight against captagon trade.
It is besides an open question whether the erstwhile Al-Qaeda militants, who did not even manage the effective management of Idlib muphahase, will manage the management of all Syria. To the east of Euphrates extends the Kurdish US protectorate. There are oil deposits there, the failure of which has taken distant Asad's means to pay for the Syrian arabian Army, which since then has mostly existed in the form of posts on the border with Lebanon drawing labour from the carriage of goods, and as specified has scattered without a fight in the face of the muslim offensive.
Meanwhile, the Syrian National Army first captured the Turkish Manbidz drones on the western shore of the Euphrates on 9 December, and then on 11 December Dayr az-Zaur over the river itself. It is unclear whether Turkey and its allies will let themselves to strike on direct protégé stars and belts. Washington seeks to bring to the negotiating table patriarchal Islamists from HTS and lay feminists from PKK, which would consequence in the formation of Kurdish autonomy in the east of Syria, as in Iraq. However, the president-elect of stars and lanes had already on 8 December declared on his social media that Washington should not interfere with the conflict in Syria. Meanwhile, Turkish drones and artillery are active in the east shores of the Euphrates Ajn al-Arab, Tall Tamr and further south Ajn Isa. On the table remains the possible of Turkish military operation in Al-Tamishla and even in Al-Hasaka.
Expulsion of Russia and Iran
Russia has lost its importance in Levant. Whether he yet evacuates his Tartus Navy and military aviation with Humajmi, Moscow will no longer be a decisive quarterback in Syria. Inability to save its Syrian protege will besides likely make little curious in basing its safety on the protection of the Kremlin than before. The possible failure of bases in Tartus and Humaim will besides impede Russian projection in Africa and the Black Sea Straits. possibly the Kremlin's knowing of the indirect takeover of Damascus by Ankara occurred, as in September 2023 Russia did not object to Turkey's indirect acquisition of Stepanakert. Now the game between Sultan and Cara will decision to the chaotic Fields, where Anatolia will effort to be a broker of an agreement to halt fighting.
Expert of the Russian global Council and manager of the Centre for strategical Analysis and Technology Ruslan Puchov notes in its analysis that Russia had suffered a defeat in Syria as shortly as it found out that it lacked resources to complete the demolition of the anti-Asad rebels. The endurance of Assad's government was contingent upon his military successes, while the de facto demolition of Syria had to be agreed. After she was stuck in Ukraine and disbanded Wagner, Moscow no longer had the means to fight Assad's increasing opponents, but at the same time she did not decide to leave the Levantine country, which had to end in a fall in position.. According to a Russian analyst, Russia lacks the strength, resources, influence and authority to effectively operate outside the borders of the erstwhile USSR. Russia's actions are based on a bluff and are only possible until another powers see or accept them. Russia may be bluffing about its strength, but it is crucial that it does not engage in its own bluff.
Moscow must besides bear in head that with the current measures it can afford only fast intervention, with strong victories and a complete crackdown on its opponent. The protracted campaign, according to Puchów, is in itself already the failure of its initiator, regardless of the victories, due to the fact that it consumes besides much resources for Russia's current capabilities, and leaves area for changing the attitude of forces to its disadvantage.
The Persians were besides defeated by Erdogan. The Iranian origin was almost removed from Syria's political geography, especially after Israel's armed neutralization of Hezbollah. Turkey gained a direct strategical border with Israel. On December 8, it turned out to be a mark punch over October 7. Time will show whether the strategical approximation of Turkey to Israel's borders will bring more than, controlled to the point that it resembled more staging, the Israeli-Iranian rocket "ping-pong". 1 Iranian expert on geopolitics points out that, in view of Turkey's success in Syria, a fresh strength may take on the question of the Turks' forced corridor by Zangezur in Zakaukazi, and may besides increase Taliban hostility towards the muslim Republic.
Return of the Sultanate
Erdogan announced in 2012 "We will scope Damascus, we will pray at the Umaijad mosque.” These words have been ridiculed since then, but the fact is that no power in the 20th century could replace the unchangeable function of the Osmans. The mediate East has been scratched between England, France, Israel, Russia and the Yankees for a 100 years, and has been plunged into wars and chaos. Al-Kuds, in which Muslims, Jews, and Christians lived together in the late 19th century, now became a symbol of the historically late colonial oppression of the arabian population by the Jews. Istanbul, Damascus, Cairo and Baghdad are meantime historical pillars of Ahl as-Sunnah. Her heart is Al-Kuds. Aleppo, Damascus and above all Cairo are ancient centres of civilization, historically crucial for the superethnos of arabian and Muslim religion. It was there that they developed and had their centres co-existed for centuries in the area of the sapphire and Hanafic schools.
Erdogan brought Turkey closer to the borders of Misak-i Millî in fresh years: in August 2016-March 2017, the Turks occupied the northern part of Aleppo muhaphasis (Operation ‘The Euphrates Tarcza’), in January-March 2018 they took over the Afrin territory (Operation ‘Olivia branch’), in October 2019 they took over the belt at the northern border of Syria between Ajn Isa and Tal Tamr (Operation ‘The origin of Peace’). Istanbul becomes a "patron-city" for smaller muslim centres, to which the rays of its geopolitical impact reach. In the orbit of Turkish influence present are Azerbaijan with Mountain Karabach, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Tripolitania, ruled by the Barzanich clan Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, and now besides western Syria has joined.. Anatolia's indirect influence goes even further, as far as Gagauzia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and even Abkhazia, where Turkish capital tries to fill the gap created by Russian scarcity.
The Sultan will not adhere strictly to the pre-adopted tactical plan. His strength was always creative improvisation. In mid-October, MIT stopped the rebels from hitting Aleppo, opting for hybrid power over Syria, where Islamists and Baasists could be played against each other, strengthening simultaneously against feminist-anarchist PKK. The unexpected implosion of Bashar al-Assad's regime, however, made Turkish concepts equally rapidly adapted to current realities – with a strategical objective. The further action of the Anatolian leader will be the accident rate at which the game will be played and the conduct of Turkish rivals and allies.
Ronald Lasecki
Photo X profile of Recep Erdogan
Think Poland, No. 1-2 (5-12.01.2025)
