In the Law and Higher Law, there is simply a process on the right, which Polish politics know besides well. After years of comparative unity — though subdued by resentment and smiting — the organization begins to repeat the destiny of the SLD and the Civic Platform. Each of these formations, as shortly as it lost power, immediately fell into the whirl of factions that lasted for years and prevented reconstruction.
Why now? due to the fact that the plan fell apart.
According to Agaton Koziński in Novgorodka, 1 script was long believed: Early elections in the fall of 2025. All organization activity — Kaczyński's tours, demonstrations, congresses — looked like preparation for a run that was yet not announced.
In this plan, he was to become Prime Minister after returning to power. Mateusz Morawiecki. Despite many enemies, his asset remained efficiency in managing the state's finances. However, erstwhile it turned out that there would be no earlier elections, and Donald Tusk not only did not fall after the defeat of Rafał Trzaskowski, but even strengthened, the full structure collapsed.
And then it started what always starts in parties after losing power: settlements, solos, factional wars.
Conservative commentator on who will be killed on the right - Agaton Kozinski - Paweł Sito
Morawiecki versus everything else
Today's division in the PiS goes precisely where it went before 2023: Morawiecki and his people versus the hard wing of Ziebra, Nzarnek and more extremist environments.
Jarosław Kaczyński tries to play the function of arbitrator, but even his surroundings send signals that strengthen 1 side — specified as Jack Kurski's entries, perceived as a blow to Morawiecki's camp.
New factor: Braun and taboo themes
In the background there was another element, which previously was not in Polish politics: Grzegorz Braun and his ability to play topics that over the years have been subject to an informal ban.
Braun hits 3 areas that have so far been overly sacred:
- Ukraine — utilizing social fatigue and irritation with regular tensions.
- Jews — playing conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic sentiments.
- European Union — undermining the foundation which for 20 years has been apparent in Poland.
The Confederacy couldn't do it. Braun, yes. This changes the power strategy on the right and further destabilizes the PiS.
Conservative commentator on who will be killed on the right - Agaton Kozinski - Paweł Sito
Tusk was about to fall. Meanwhile, it stands stronger than ever.
The biggest paradox of the year 2025, however, is that Donald Tusk — after the failure of Trzaskowski, after a terrible interview with Rymanowski, after a run that was to plunge him — not only was he not overthrown, but strengthened his position.
Novgorodka assumed that Tusk would repeat Kaczyński's 2007 fate: the coalition would break down, Brutus would appear and the government would collapse. Nothing like that happened.
It was this unexpected stableness of the ruling camp that the most destroyed the PiS — due to the fact that their full strategy was based on the presumption that Tusk would not survive.
What's next?
The Law and Justice present faces a challenge that will find his future: Question, Is anyone able to “take distant buckets and blades” and halt the faction war?
In the SLD, it was only after a decade. On the Platform — only after Tusk returned. There's no 1 in the Law and Justice that can take on the role.
Patronite.plPublications
