Attacks on Black Sea ports reduced exports of wheat from Ukraine by around 60% in August 2026, and from Russia by 56 percent. Both countries account for nearly a 3rd of the world's exports of this grain. The effect is more costly contracts and fresh force on food security, including in Europe.
Black Sea ports are losing capacity
War strikes again 1 of the world's most crucial food routes. Russian attacks on ports in Odessa and over the Danube and Ukrainian drone strikes on Novorossian damaged terminals and stopped most transports from both states. Polish economical Institute statedthat from 1 to 28 August Ukraine exported 1.6 million tonnes of wheat. This was about 20% of its capacity and about 60% little than a year ago.
On the Russian side, the scale of interference is similar. According to the estimates of SoveEcon analysts cited by PIE, the August export of Russian wheat fell by 56% a year. The audience received 1.6 million tonnes, at least in the first period of the period since the 2017/2018 trade games. The port in Noworosyjsk is liable for 1 3rd of Russian cereal exports, so its weakening matters far beyond the Russian coast.
The planet pays for war in Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine supply a full of about 1 3rd of planet wheat exports. erstwhile ports halt operating, prices respond quickly. In July the FAO cereal price index reached 113.8 points, i.e. by 6.9 percent more than a year ago. In August, the future contracts for wheat increased year-on-year by about 30%, and have been at most over 3 years.
The most susceptible are importers dependent on supplies from the Black Sea, including Egypt and Turkey. The higher cost of grain and transport then passes into flour, bread and fodder. Poland is not the main recipient of Russian wheat, but is active in the common price market. More costly natural materials in the planet sooner or later appear in the accounts of farmers, processors and families.
Alternative routes have hard limits
Kiev is trying to steer any of the cargo through the Danish ports, Romanian Constance and land routes through the European Union. However, low water levels in the Danube and attacks on infrastructure at the border with Moldova limit these opportunities. Transport by land is more costly and will not replace bulk shipping. erstwhile problems of Ukrainian agriculture, including risk of failure of millions of hectares of sowing, show the scale of force on the sector, which accounts for about 60% of Ukrainian exports.
Russia can besides shift only part of its supplies to Baltic ports and to railways. The routes are longer, more costly and little suited for deliveries to North Africa and Turkey. The attacks on Novorossian besides burden oil exports, which raises the economical cost of war for the Kremlin.
Poland must defend its own market
The force to increase transit through Poland will increase. Ukraine's assistance in repelling Russian aggression is in the interests of the safety of the Republic, but transit must not again turn into an uncontrolled influx of grain into the Polish market. The embargo on imports of wheat, maize, rape and sunflower protects Polish producers from the effects of unequal competition. Corridors should be sealed, monitored and targeted for export to final customers.
Russian military force on Poland and NATO is not limited to rockets and troops. The safety of ports, food and trade routes is part of the same puzzle. Warsaw should at the same time support effective transit and absolutely defend the interests of its own farmers. Solidarity without control ends with a bill issued to Polish families.
Source: Polish economical Institute, Bankier.pl
Source: Bankier.pl
