Poland against global economical shuffle – how to position yourself?

USA-China-EU

We are surviving in a time of changing the global order of economical exchange and political influence zones. erstwhile establishing the economical strategy of a medium-sized country, which is Poland, account should be taken of the strategy of the main players determining trading conditions in the area where Poland pursues its interests. And so the United States is an global leader in the provision and regulation of capital, the monetary exchange strategy (dollar, SWIFT) and modern non-productive technologies. They effort to keep control of the world's physical circulation of goods, drawing a pension from it. China has become a global leader in the production of goods. They are developing increasingly advanced manufacturing technologies. It is in their interest to become independent of the US monetary exchange strategy and to break the control strategy for global trade routes by the United States. China competes with the U.S. in modern non-production technologies and slowly, as it accumulates, becomes a competitive US supplier of capital. Unfortunately, the European Union has lost its leadership in the field of industrial production, but in many areas it is inactive an crucial global producer, technology and manufacturing base. The EU is simply a client of the US monetary exchange system, capital regulation and military security, as well as China's main trading partner.

The confrontation between China and the US is inevitable. The current global trade agreement no longer serves the interests of the associate States of the European Union. Maintaining relations under the present conditions will lead to further failure of markets, industrial and technological bases. This is why the most economically powerful European countries will effort to change trade rules in order to keep or strengthen their position and prosperity.

The continuation of European trade with the US and China under the current conditions will lead to further failure of markets, industrial and technological bases. That is why the EU's strongest economical countries will effort to change its rules in order to keep or strengthen their position and prosperity.

China is the planet leader in over 31% of global industrial production and Europe's second trading partner after the US. As the only country in the world, they are implementing a state strategy to guarantee their economy access to key minerals through mining, steel and refining projects, protected by diplomatic and military activities worldwide. This results in monitoring the full production process from natural material to product, low costs and supervision of natural materials markets. However, this venture requires control over the physical oceanic transport of goods between continents. Europe is gaining crucial export surpluses in trade with the US and a crucial trade deficit with China. In the absence of a coherent strategy, this deficit will increase and European countries will be pushed out of the US export market.

On the another hand, the Polish economy is very powerfully connected with the German economy. Germany is Poland's largest trading partner, liable for over 28% of exports and 20% of imports, with a favourable trading balance for our country. We are a key supplier to their companies and indirectly participate in strong German exports. erstwhile considering Poland's economical strategy, this key link should besides be taken into account – to defend and make it in the case of good, long-term prospects of the German economy or to look for alternatives in the event of mediocre chances of growth.

Fight for a dominant position in industrial production

The European Union is losing its current trade rules. The reason for this is lower than Asian productivity, higher energy costs than in the US, failure of primacy in technology and quality, and consequently more costly offer for akin products or worse than Asian ones. In relations with the United States, Europe gains a number of benefits in exchange for its own concessions – it achieves a trade surplus with the US, while allowing US non-industrial companies (Big Tech) to dominate digital markets, media and entertainment. It besides submits to the U.S. monetary settlement strategy and military-political supremacy. For relations with China, and another developing Asian countries, the EU is evolving from a supplier of advanced industrial products to an importer of all industrial products. At the same time, Asian countries are displacing Europe from conventional export markets.

The effective revision of the European economical strategy and the subsequent implementation of effective measures to improve the situation is very hard or even impossible to implement in the context of the current EU-level decision-making strategy and conflicting economical interests of the associate States. The way in which the European Union's commercial interests can be effectively served and protected seems to be a strong consolidation at the expense of the sovereignty of the associate States. Without consolidation of decision-making powers, Europe will not meet the pace and challenges of violent competition. However, the chances of consolidation among the current associate States are slim. In the long term, the most likely scenarios for strategical alliances in a smaller group of EU countries or for disintegration or simplification of the function of the community and implementation of key policies, including economical and trade, at national level appear to be the most likely.

Analyzing possible options for Poland, it is worth identifying strong European countries with converging economical strategical interests. Our country is successfully developing exports of food and services in markets where the threat from Asian competition is negligible. In this respect, supporting the European common marketplace and efforts to keep trade links with countries for which the Polish economy is simply a long-term co-operator are beneficial. Both in the script of consolidating Europe and reducing the importance of the community and expanding the function of bilateral relations, Poland should build a coalition with co-operators countries, protecting long-term economical links.

Without consolidation of decision-making powers, Europe will not meet the pace and challenges of violent competition. However, the chances of consolidation among the current associate States are slim. In the long term, the most likely scenarios for strategical alliances in a smaller group of EU countries or for disintegration or simplification of the function of the community and implementation of key policies, including economical and trade, at national level appear to be the most likely.

The European Union is simply a key export marketplace for China. At the same time, imports from the EU are increasing rapidly. There are so solid grounds for establishing fresh rules for economical exchange. They will safe access to Chinese marketplace exports in areas where it can effectively compete with quality, brand or technology. At the same time, it will guarantee the protection of European businesses and the EU market, as well as time to make and improve competitiveness in crucial areas where it is presently losing (automotive, new energy, battery production, photovoltaic panels, wind turbines). specified new deal it is possible to negotiate, given what both partners can gain (reciprocal access to markets on fresh rules) or lose (closure of markets and isolationism). The implementation of this script is subject to consolidation of the European Union and a strong mandate for the European Commission. The mentioned new deal However, it would make sense, provided that the time bought in to improve the competitiveness of the EU economy is utilized properly.

How to reconstruct the competitiveness of the European economy?

In the area of trade and industrial policy, for a long time, EU associate States (particularly those belonging to the "hard core") have presented a model of "open gates" to make the most of export profits. Now this trend seems to be losing value. However, will the "closure of the gates" of the EU actually happen? There are major differences in the positions of key European countries. Germany has long been a supporter of free trade, believing in its export advantages, while France and countries The South was more supportive of customs barriers. However, the German economy, sometimes losing to China in conventional areas (automotive, chemical industry, device industry), can force the authorities of our western neighbour to take protectionist action. It should besides be borne in head that the condition for effective reindustrialisation is wise protection of the marketplace as a consequence of a highly negotiated fresh agreement with the State of the mediate East and a number of measures to improve the competitiveness of the European economy. It is so worth looking at the structural causes of the failure of the same and, subsequently, the conditions for restoring it:

– the fiscal burden and regulatory constraints imposed on energy production, which consequence in the highest energy prices in Europe, despite the cost of manufacturing akin to another countries. These burdens are justified by climate objectives. In fact, however, they are a fiscal and taxation tool and straight increase production costs in Europe. In combination with the free import of products from countries with low energy are the best prescription for the decommissioning of industry. The condition for restoring its competitiveness is to change the approach to energy transition: to destruct the burden of conventional energy generation methods (which consequence in lower energy prices) and to introduce fiscal incentives for the desired fresh generation methods (the effect of transformation at competitive prices through the incentive system);

– excessive regulation of the economy, in which each provision seems sensible and deliberate on its own, but their sum makes the simplest investment processes long-term or impossible to carry out. In addition, they take up quite a few time and affect immense resources for reporting, reporting, regulation. This yet results in much longer and more costly actions. Excessive regulation in very circumstantial areas of economical and social life is frequently perceived by EU citizens and entrepreneurs as a "bureaucratic republic". However, the added value of these actions is not behind specified strong interference. This leads to a reluctance to further consolidate decision-making powers at the level of central Community bodies. Deregulation and withdrawal of central interference from circumstantial areas of social life, combined with consolidation and increase of powers in strategical areas (economic strategy, abroad policy, armed forces) are conditions for expanding competitiveness and creating a apparatus in the European Union that will be capable of a dignified representation of the Community in competition with the US, China, Russia.

The 2 conditions for restoring the competitiveness of the European economy are unlikely. However, it is highly possible that action taken by EU institutions will prove inadequate to safeguard the competitiveness of associate States' economies. In specified a situation, the European Union will not decently service the interests of the associate States.

What position should Poland take?

The reindustrialisation of the EU, in conjunction with stronger protection of the European market, is an chance to increase the share of abroad companies that will be forced to invest in local production in order to keep their position on the EU market. In this context, Poland, as a competitive country for industrial placement within the EU, has a good chance of becoming a beneficiary of these measures. Reindustrialisation should in this case be combined with strong support of Polish investments by the government in order to build national technological advantage, accumulation of capital and knowledge. This consequently forces the creation of global ties by national champions and abroad expansion (here the large example is Japan and South Korea, which with the support of the state created technological and commercial giants specified as: Toyota, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Samsung, LG, SK). Local state-supported champions become the basis for ambitious economical ventures and cooperation with akin players from another countries. At the same time, they are indirectly a tool for implementing the state economical strategy.

The conditions for restoring the competitiveness of European manufacture are to change the approach to energy transition by eliminating excessive burden on conventional energy generation methods and introducing fiscal incentives for green transition and deregulation of the economy and decentralisation of circumstantial areas of social life, combined with consolidation and growth of powers in strategical areas.

The prosperity of Poland over the last fewer decades has been built on the basis of the hard work of Poles within the European Union, the common marketplace and wise compromises. If within the EU solutions can be developed to defend the European marketplace and give time for reindustrialisation, they should be given precedence by us. This direction will guarantee our country's participation in exports to the EU interior marketplace and external markets, in cooperation with European co-operating economies. At the same time, it is crucial to consider an alternate – bilateral scenario, focusing on cooperation and identifying common objectives with the closest trading partners and building smaller coalitions based on identical interests and sustainable cooperation. Given the advanced likelihood of failure in the EU to make and implement economical structural changes that increase competitiveness, this is necessary. These 2 directions are not mutually exclusive and can be implemented in an effort to influence the improvement of the European Union.

If within the EU solutions can be developed to defend the European marketplace and give time for reindustrialisation, they should be given precedence by us. At the same time, it is crucial to consider an alternate – bilateral scenario, focusing on cooperation and identifying common objectives with the closest trading partners and building smaller coalitions based on identical interests and sustainable cooperation.

Economic minimum for Poland

The economical strategy of Poland should be considered in the context of 2 areas: the European Union and the country. Within the EU we request new deal to defend the interior marketplace wisely. We request to guarantee good trade relations with planet powers: on the 1 hand, we request to focus on liberal trade relations with the US, in which Europe will gain trade surpluses from exports of goods, while the US from exports of digital technologies and services, and on mutually balanced by customs protection trade relations with China, in which the most crucial markets for the EU are protected. In order to get inexpensive energy, you request to decision distant from fiscal proclimate tools and lead to deregulation of its production. It is besides crucial to replace the fees charged to its conventional production with incentives/supplies to produce green energy. The depth of regulation of respective key business areas must besides be abandoned or controlled.

At national level, however, we request large investments in infrastructure for energy generation and distribution. CPK, logistics base, railways must start to be seen as tools indirectly reducing costs and facilitating access of Polish products to planet markets. It is besides crucial to support local champions and another companies that are likely to successfully implement hard projects and accomplish economies of scale, combined with targeting strategical areas for the national economy. specified projects consequence in the accumulation of capital and cognition and form the basis for the expansion of Polish capital into abroad markets.

All the above-mentioned actions were presented in isolation from the safety strategy. Meanwhile, the request to guarantee safety in hard times outweighs the request for economical development. The EU's largest trading partners are at the same time the main safety providers in their spheres of influence. In this respect, the Union is simply a beneficiary of the US scheme. The implementation of these actions is consistent with the existing safety strategy based on an alliance with the US. Changes in Europe's safety system, possible withdrawal of the US or increased function China as a safety supplier in Europe will find the change in economical strategy.