The fertility rate in Poland in 2025 was 1,068, while in 1990 it was 1,991 – according to GUS data. The decline in birth rates translates into a failure of population, besides in agrarian areas, where around 41 percent of the population of the country lives. Although the village has a affirmative migration balance, the death rate continues to exceed the birth rate. Experts indicate that the situation may further worsen the obstruction of young people from settling or returning to the countryside.
– In Poland we see a very large problem with agrarian demography. The debate is highly focused on cities, specified as the desire for a career or the difficulty of uncovering a suitable partner for women, which frequently applies mainly to those with higher education. But the village has completely different problems. 1 major problem is settling in, building your own home – says Newseria Mateusz Łakomy, Demographic Policy expert, manager of the Demograficon programme in the Polish economical Society.
According to the Jagiellonian Club report, “The village will vanish from the plan? How to deregulation for Poles to return to agrarian areas”, in the 10 largest cities in Poland there are 17% of the country's population, and in agrarian areas 41%.
CSO data from the study “Population. The state and structure and natural movement in the territorial section in 2025" indicate that more than 404.3 1000 people (by 26,000 little than a year earlier) changed their permanent residence by moving to another municipality, as well as from the village to the city or vice versa. The village has a affirmative migration balance, but at the same time it loses the population due to the advantage of death over births. In 2025, the affirmative migration balance for the village amounted to over 36.1 1000 people and the number of deaths there exceeded the birth rate by 56,000.
– Recently, the Jagiellonian Club published a study in which it tries to deal with this subject and to tell what current regulations may paradoxically make it hard for people who went to the large city to settle down there, for example in agricultural competitions, and would like to return to their fatherhood, to their place of residence. abruptly it turns out that there may be difficulties in building your own home close to your parents or expanding your farm – emphasises Matthew Lakoma.
The authors of the Jagiellonian Club study draw attention to the context of the general plans of the municipalities, which constitute a fresh planning instrument introduced as part of the planning reform. They replace the existing studies of the conditions and directions of spatial planning, as well as identifying the different areas where different building rules apply. The key mechanics of the general plan is the alleged absorbency balance. The municipality designates zones allowing housing – multi-family, single-family and homestead – in specified a way that the absorption of undeveloped areas in these zones is between 70 and 130 percent of the request for fresh housing in the municipality. This request shall be calculated according to a country-wide harmonised formula, in the 20-year horizon and on the basis of a demographic forecast based on the CSO database.
– It turns out that the most depopulated municipalities have the most pessimistic predictions. Therefore, they are somewhat related, at least some, to allocate the area to housing, besides known as habitat, covering not only the residential home but the full farm related to the place of residence. This paradoxically may in any cases impede the return of young, educated farmers, landowners – explains Matthew Lakoma.
The study indicates that the fresh regulation is intended to reduce the uncontrolled spillage of construction investments. However, the club experts stress that this makes sense for agglomeration areas, where suburbanisation has negative social impacts, but regulation does not take into account the specificities of depopulated agrarian areas. The open zone, which includes agricultural land, does not supply in the basic profile of housing or construction related to agricultural production. Experts forecast that the effect may be to reduce the possible for agrarian development, blocking part of the investment.
“The difficulty is that people who do not inherit this habitat directly, thanks to absorbance balances, have limited opportunities to live in another places outside the designated residential areas, which are frequently not those adjacent to their parents’ home. The problem is to grow the area of residence or habitat – emphasises the expert on demographic policy. – It's perfectly apparent that erstwhile we get back, we want to live close our parents. This is besides conducive to fertility, due to the fact that parent or mother-in-law can aid care for children.
According to the authors of the report, the disadvantage of the fresh rules is the same approach to the very diverse situation and size of municipalities. The mechanisms operate in the municipality straight adjacent to Warsaw, as well as in the municipality 100 km from the metropolis. The first defends itself against excessive influx of fresh residents, and the second struggles to last and halt depopulation.
– We should think about the demography completely differently spatially, depending on whether we are talking about a large city, bagels, or alleged periphery, or areas distant from large cities. Villages distant from large cities have very different needs, they conflict to be able to return there, to keep people who want to leave, but the attractiveness of this place is insufficient – says Mateusz Lakoma. – Young people who will stay or who have developed in the city and come back are completely different human capital. These people are educated, enterprising, they have friends, that is, they are possibly attracting business and more advanced services than those that are locally available.
As he emphasizes, as a result, any villages will vanish from the map of Poland more rapidly or will be inhabited only by the elderly.
– Thus, they will not be a origin of taxation for local governments and a origin of development. From a purely economical perspective, it will mainly be the centre of costs than income for local governments – adds the demograph.
The work to pass the general plan of the municipality had until 31 August 2026. Tomasz Lewandowski, Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of improvement and Technology, said late in the Sejm that 946 municipalities, or 38% of the total, have done so far, but after taking into account the conclusions of 31 August this number may be higher (even 1.1–1,2 thousand). Most of the another municipalities are at an advanced phase of work, and only little than 4% have not started at all.
