Today, Poland faces major geopolitical challenges, but besides a chance to strengthen its position in Europe and in the world.
Andrzej Derlatka
Our country has a gross home product much lower than Germany – about 7 times smaller – resulting from hard history: 2 planet wars and decades of economical exploitation by the russian Union. Nevertheless, Poland has been making up for the distance in fresh years and can not only catch up with the European average, but besides approach the most developed economies of the continent.
Relations with Germany, though burdened with hard history, are crucial today. It is Germany that is our most crucial economical partner, and Poland is 1 of the leading economical partners of Berlin. Cooperation is so a natural choice – entrepreneurs on both sides have long known that improvement and problem solving are only possible in cooperation. Of course, there are conflicts of interest, specified as the issue of the container port in Świnoujście, but specified disputes cannot obscure a wider picture. The port, apart from its economical role, is besides strategical – it is the shortest way for NATO troops to Poland, and so besides serves the safety of Germany.
In the event of a military conflict, Poland would gotta trust primarily on support from Germany – both in terms of armed forces and logistics. All land aid from the West will scope us through German territory. Similarly, Germany should realize that Poland is simply a shield for them against threats from the East. For this reason, the construction and financing of defence infrastructure, specified as the border wall with Belarus, should besides be subject to joint discussions and joint action. Before Poland entered NATO, Germany clearly declared that the membership of our country was in their interest, due to the fact that Poland is the first line of defence against Russia.
Let's not build artificial conflicts
Today we must not build artificial conflicts with Germany. The thought of conducting politics in an open dispute with Berlin is nowhere. Poland, deprived of German support, would not stand a chance in the event of a safety crisis. Yes, the past of Polish-German relations is difficult, but the future requires a sober look. The European Union is not always effective in emergency situations, and we must first number on our closest allies, including Germany.
Our neighbors' awareness is besides changing. In the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries, in peculiar Latvia and Lithuania, any sobering-up occurs: they increasingly realize that Poland is simply a warrant of safety for them. In these countries, after decades of dislike of Poland, there is simply a favorable change of mood. Slovakia and Hungary, despite political differences, besides stay in our business orbit.
In the planet we see the return of the Cold War logic. 2 political-military blocks are formed: western, dominated by the US, and eastern, built by Russia, China, India, Iran or North Korea. These countries openly declare their desire to end the dominance of the United States and the dollar. alternate structures like BRICS are being created to integrate this block. Although their attempts to make their own currency or to break the West's hegemony are hard for the time being, the very fact of specified initiatives shows the scale of the challenge.
The UN safety Council is inactive based on the 1945 Agreement, which creates force for change – large countries specified as India, Brazil and Indonesia feel marginalized. The West should respond to these demands by reforming global institutions in order to avoid escalation of conflicts.
One of the biggest points of inflammation is Taiwan. China is increasingly preparing for a military alternatively than peaceful takeover of the island – they practice blockades and grow the landing fleet. The Taiwanese definitely do not want integration with China, fearing the deterioration of surviving conditions and the failure of freedom. Any effort to take Taiwan could lead to an open conflict with the US.
There is simply a real hazard that Russia could usage specified a crisis to attack Europe, e.g. in Latvia or the Suwałki Corridor. Russia has been saying for years that Ukraine, Belarus or northern Kazakhstan are its sphere of influence and must return to control of Moscow. The war in Ukraine shows the determination of the Kremlin, ready for immense costs and losses. NATO has increased defence spending to 5% of GDP, but there is very small time to prepare for the possible war in 2027.
Poland must strengthen its armed forces and make its defence manufacture in this context. Military purchases should affect technology transfer and investment in the country so as not to be totally dependent on supplies from distant countries. This is especially important, due to the fact that during the war communication lines can be interrupted and parts from the US or Korea will be impossible. Therefore, the improvement of the Polish defence industry, capable of producing and servicing equipment on site, is simply a prerequisite for our safety.
Lack of transparency
However, the deficiency of transparency and decision-making chaos regarding purchases for the army is worrying. Management positions in the arms manufacture are frequently held after cognition and not on the basis of competence, leading to delays and inefficiency. Contracts, specified as the acquisition of F-35 without a technological offset, are proof that Poland does not take advantage of the chance to strengthen its own industry. Meanwhile, the armed forces and the defence manufacture should be 2 pillars of national security.
On the global stage, 2 main factors are the size of the economy and the number of divisions. The Polish economy is increasing and advanced to the top 20 of the world, but the number of our divisions is inactive insufficient. Like Turkey, we can gradually compensate for the weaker economy of the expansion of the army, and in time – thanks to economical improvement – become a regional power.
In summary: Poland is at a crucial moment. We must work wisely with Germany and our neighbours, strengthen the army and make the defence manufacture consistently. The global situation is becoming increasingly tense, and the possible of conflict over the coming years is real. Only a strong economy and a modern military will give us the chance to defend and account in the world.
