Russian drones this week violated not only Polish airspace, but besides our sense of security. erstwhile again, we began to figure out how to prepare ourselves just in case and where to hide in case things got worse. This first question is answered in an article on supplies for a rainy day. We will clarify the second point right now.
Places in Poland the most at hazard are in the Lublin, Podlaskie and Warmia-Masurian provinces.
In June 2025, BGK's Department of investigation and Analysis published a study entitled "The Local Governments Against Contemporary Threats. opposition of Polish municipalities and cities" (full version to download here).
Experts have looked into 4 main categories of threats, which have become peculiarly fresh in fresh years. On this basis, they assessed each region not only the level of vulnerability to the crisis, but besides the ability to respond and rebuild.
Hazard types analysed in the BGK report:
Natural threats: violent weather phenomena specified as floods, droughts or heat waves.
Health threats: crises specified as epidemics.
Humanitarian threats: mainly related to the abrupt and uncontrolled influx of large numbers of people, e.g. refugees.
Military threats: covering not only full-scale armed conflict, but besides hybrid actions, cyber attacks or misinformation.
The general conclusion is that the opposition and hazard are not evenly distributed in Poland. From the study we learn that as many as 15.7 million Poles live in local governments, which have achieved a superior level of opposition to all 4 threats simultaneously.
On the another hand, about 311,000 people live in areas where the level of threat is higher than the average and opposition to all crises is lower. These are tiny local governments from Lublin, Podlaskie and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship.
The most safe and endangered regions of Poland. In all respect
BGK analysis shows that the safest (taking into account the overall hazard rate) is in Lubuskie Voivodeship, which achieved the lowest score in the country (16,7). In turn, the highest overall level of hazard was recorded in Mazowieckie voivodship (35,8).
But you can't look at it as zero. A advanced hazard is frequently associated with greater capacity to deal with crisis situations. This is why the Mazovia state may and has the highest hazard ratio, but besides the highest level of overall immunity.
The most resilient regions: The highest level of overall immunity was besides recorded in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship. 2 thirds of the municipalities and cities in this region achieved superior resilience in all 4 categories analysed.
The least resilient regions: Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship was located on the other pole, where as much as 77.6% of local governments have opposition below the national average in all areas surveyed simultaneously. The situation is akin in Zachodniopomorskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie voivodships. However, we must note that these regions are not the most vulnerable, which can be explained by the lower level of preparation.
The largest cities specified as Warsaw, Gdańsk, Kraków and Poznań are, on the 1 hand, the most susceptible to humanitarian and military crises, but on the another hand, they have the largest financial and human resources to deal with them.
A map of military threats. Which provinces are most susceptible during the war?
In the event of a military threat, 2 factors are most important: geographical location and accumulation of critical infrastructure. BGK analysts took into account, among others, the distance from the border with the Kölewiecki Oblast, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine and the location of specified facilities as power plants, ports, airports or key energy networks.
On the map of military threat (above) it is clear that the east of the country is darker, which means that the hazard is higher there. Interestingly, in the case of military and humanitarian threats there is simply a affirmative correlation: local governments, which are more threatened, are at the same time better prepared to defend and react.
The most threatened cities: Among the cities on the district's rights, the highest military threat rate was recorded in Warsaw, due to its strategical importance, location and advanced concentration of critical infrastructure. The ranking is besides advanced in Gdańsk, which lies about 130 km in a consecutive line from Królewiec and has a key port and refinery.
The least threatened voivodships: The lowest military threat index in the country reached Lubuskie Voivodeship. Generally, the further west and south, the lower the level of this peculiar threat.
Poland has many safe areas. What affects the resilience of the region?
The resilience of individual local governments is simply a complex phenomenon, which is influenced by many factors. Only any of them, specified as infrastructure or finance, are straight shaped by the authorities. There are besides factors that nobody has besides much influence on, specified as geographical location. actual resilience, however, is not only shelters and supplies, but above all an efficient community.
However, the authors stress that "in a crisis, the smooth cooperation of all actors is crucial – both residents, local entrepreneurs and social organizations, as well as local, regional and central authorities have their roles to play"
According to a study in Poland, 799 local governments at the lowest level show opposition higher than the average in all 4 analysed areas, with more than a 4th of them located in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship.
At the same time, 863 local governments (34.8% of all) have below average immunity in all categories. Almost a 3rd of these most susceptible units are located in Warmian-Masurian, West Pomeranian and Kuyavian-Pomeranian provinces.
As far as the level of hazard is concerned, nearly 1.3 million Poles live in 169 local governments, which are above average exposed to all 4 hazard categories, and most of them lie in Lublin, Podlaskie and Mazowieckie voivodships.
On the another hand, 3.9 million people live in the least-at-risk areas that have not been considered to be above average endangered in any of the areas surveyed. Most specified safe local governments are located in Wielkopolska, Silesia and Lesser Poland.
