The G20 Group is an informal but influential forum that was created in 1999 as a consequence to the financial crises in Asia and Russia. It brings together the world's 19 largest economies and the European Union and the African Union.
In total, these countries make around 85% of global GDP and account for 75% of global trade. The G20 summits have no legal power, but they set global economical trends and policies for years. It is in this forum that the key discussions on climate, finance and safety are held.
Why does Poland aspire to the G20 and what will that do us?
Poland's joining the G20 is not just a fan of politicians, but a consequence of our economical success. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and head of the MFA Radosław Sikorski talk louder about our ambitions, and the fresh invitation of Karol Nawrocki to the G20 summit in 2026 in the United States only warmed the atmosphere.
Why do we care so much? As quoted by Piotr Arak, the chief economist of VeloBank, the entry to the G20 would be for us the final sealing of the transition from the periphery to the economical centre of the world. Being in the G20 is primarily a large prestige and strengthening of Poland's image on the global stage.
It is besides a signal to investors that we are a large, unchangeable and predictable economy worth doing business with. That's not all. Membership besides gives a real influence on the direction in which the planet is heading.
Our main argument is the strength of the economy. According to forecasts of the global Monetary Fund, Polish GDP in 2025 is expected to scope nearly $1 trillion (and according to the Prime Minister it has already exceeded this value), which will put us in 20th place in the world. Just before... Switzerland, which does not belong to the G20.
Who's in the G20? List of members and criteria
The G20 Group is simply a very circumstantial club. There is no formal procedure to get to it, nor circumstantial membership criteria. Decisions on the composition of the group are based on unwritten principles, taking into account the size of the economy (GDP), geopolitical importance and geographical balance.
Currently, the G20 belongs (in alphabetical order):
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
France
India
Indonesia
Japan
Canada
South Korea
Mexico
Germany
South Africa (RPA)
Russia
Saudi Arabia
United States
Turkey
United Kingdom
Italy
European Union
African Union
As you can see, there are 19 countries and 2 global organisations on the list (there should be a G21 in total). We can besides announcement that in G20 there is no Spain and the Netherlands, for example, whose economies are larger than Polish. Experts stress that decisions on the composition of the group are political and frequently arise from the request to guarantee geographical diversity.
Who could Poland replace in G20? It's complicated.
Let us presume that the name "G20" is to be preserved and Poland jumps to another country. Who would be the candidate to leave the elite group? If we consider hard economical data, at least 3 countries come to mind.
South Africa
It's the weakest economy in the G20. The GDP of this country in 2025 is about $400 billion. This is more than twice the GDP of Poland. South Africa besides took over the Group Presidency this year (until the end of December). For the first time, which shows her vital function in the world.
From a purely economical point of view, this country is the first on the exchange list, but it is an crucial player on the African continent, so it would be hard to remove it for geopolitical reasons. The same applies to another countries, specified as Saudi Arabia (it has just over a trillion dollars in GDP), which represents the arabian planet and has energy significance.
Argentina
Her GDP, amounting to about $679 billion, is besides importantly lower than Polish. For years, the country has been struggling with powerful economical problems, a constant crisis and is regularly on the verge of bankruptcy.
In the G20 it has long been called the weakest link, but its presence in the group is explained by the desire to monitor the situation and save it from further falls (e.g. this week the US bought Argentina's $20 billion peso).
Russia
Here the argument is more political than economic, but in this field besides Russia is not as powerful as it utilized to be. After the invasion of Ukraine, Poland proposed to take her place.
However, the expulsion of Russia would require unanimity, which they may not agree to, for example, China. The presence of this country in the club is increasingly problematic, and its replacement by a unchangeable and increasing ally (talk about Poland) seems rational.
Poland will be in G20?
It's just a guess right now, and the answer to the question isn't that simple. As you can see, the arguments are on both sides. Looking purely through the prism of numbers, Poland could replace the economically weaker Argentina. In turn, given political considerations, the natural movement would be to take Russia's place.
However, it is not possible to exclude a script in which, despite the strong economy and our aspirations, we will not be in the group at all, due to the fact that there are also stronger candidates. Is that gonna happen? We'll find out shortly enough.
