Threatening policy
Hans Vogel • September 2, 2025 https://www.unz.com/article/gunboat-diplomacy
Some things never change. Now that the American monopoly on adjective “American“ It has seemingly become widely recognized (even in many parts of Latin America), it is not amazing that the US policy in Latin America has not changed in nearly 2 centuries.
At the moment, a tiny U.S. Navy fleet is patrolling off the coast of Venezuela. So far it seems to be a classical case of canoner diplomacy, a peculiar practice initiated by the English (when Brittany continued to regulation the waves), adopted by the US, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands and applied with varying success.
Today we are fortunate to witness in real time another case of the diplomacy of canoniers against Venezuela. Unlike Grenada (1983) and Panama (1989), where the diplomacy of canonniers has evolved into a full-scale invasion, Venezuela is simply a hard nut to break. Although any Americans may be able to identify Venezuela on the map, there are even less people who have any thought of Venezuelan past and politics. Indeed, relying on mainstream media will not enlighten them. There can only be a fistful of Americans who know Venezuelan culture and what Venezuelans can be, both individually and as a collective. It is doubtful whether any of the second can be found among Donald Trump's advisors.
It should be clear that Venezuelans can be “Latin American” but completely different from Nicaraguans, Salvadorans or Guatemalans. They are not like Mexicans or Cubans, although their Spanish may sound the same as Cuban Spanish.
The last time the diplomacy of the canonierek brought tangible results in Venezuela in 1908, erstwhile the Dutch Navy intervened to bring Juan Vicente Gómez, the then vice president, erstwhile president Cipriano Castro was leaving for Paris to get syphilis treatment. Acting either as president himself, or as “The Grey Eminence” ruling the country utilizing puppets, Gómez remained in power until 1935. It was Gómez who returned the favour of the Dutch, granting the Shell Oil Company, which was inactive a Dutch-English company at the time.
This gave Venezuela a place among the selected group of world's largest oil producers. In the early 1930s Venezuela was the 3rd largest producer, after the US and USSR. 30 years later, in the 1960s, Venezuela was number two, shortly surpassed by upcoming oil producing countries in the mediate East. present Venezuela ranks 21.
So, given the fact that global oil production is now higher than demand, the insistence with which Donald Trump is now trying to impose his will on Venezuela does not seem to be primarily about oil. The only thing is possibly that many U.S. refineries were built to process heavy, almost tarry Venezuelan oil, and adapting specified refineries to oil from another sources is costly and burdensome. In fresh decades Venezuela has not been precisely the kind of trading partner that Americans like to do business with.
Of course, the authoritative U.S. maneuver is allegedly connected to drug trafficking. Again, it is simply a silly pretext, due to the fact that if Venezuela plays any function in this area, it can only be very modest. Moreover, because Colombia is the world's leading cocaine producer, boasting 2 thirds of all world's cocaine crops (behind them Peru with a 4th and Bolivia with almost 10 percent), Venezuela simply cannot be considered a real player in this field.
Given the nature of drug trafficking activities, the risks involved, but above all the immense financial and political interests involved, it is risky to make any far-reaching statements. However, over the years there have been so many indications and secondary evidence that it is safe to say that American spy agencies, especially the CIA, play a key function throughout the industry. It is the CIA that supervises and coordinates the production of natural materials, organizes the production process and transport of goods to major markets in North America, Europe and elsewhere. The DEA besides plays a key function in the fight against drug trafficking, helping to destruct unwanted competitors, and yet helps keep prices advanced adequate for stakeholders to make large profits, all tax-free! Given this interaction, it is safe to say that yet this deep U.S. state is liable for global drug trafficking.
Against this background, charges against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro are as outrageous as imagined and unfounded. In fact, the United States is trying to do the same trick against Maduro as it did in 1989 against Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, who was taken to Miami to be tried for drug trafficking and now rots in American prison.
However, it will most likely not be so easy to arrest Maduro, as the invasion of Venezuela by the U.S. troops seems to be out of the question for the simple reason that Venezuela is not Panama, which for the US had the advantage that it houses respective crucial American military bases (in the Panama Canal zone). The nearest base to Venezuela that the United States could usage is the islands of Curacao, Aruba and Bonaire, all 3 parts of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Although the Netherlands is simply a US vassal state and a loyal NATO member, for various applicable and political reasons, it does not seem so easy to establish an American operating base there in a short time.
Other obstacles to the smooth replay of Panamanian operations are geography Venezuela and the greatness, morale and combat readiness of its armed forces. While Panama (created in 1903 as a consequence of the US intervention against Colombia, of which it was originally a province) is to any degree a fallen state, Venezuela is the heir to the venerable Bolivian tradition, and Venezuelans are a arrogant and fiercely independent nation.
Although Trump's advisors and possibly he himself may believe that Maduro is simply a modern version of Noriega or the Latin American version of Saddam Hussein and that the Venezuelan army will fall as shortly as the Americans appear, they are mistaken. Any U.S. military intervention in Venezuela may encounter strong resistance.
Anyone who has always been to Venezuela and spent any time with Venezuelans will realize that they are not crazy. Take the night life in Caracas, for example. 1 time, erstwhile I was having a drink with a prof. at Central University, I was amazed to learn that he always wore an automatic weapon in his belt, which no American or European colleague would have thought of. However, in Caracas most men in bars are likewise equipped. And don't think specified weapons are never utilized erstwhile the owner feels threatened or insulted.
A high-ranking European diplomat erstwhile told me that Venezuelans are tough negotiators, noting that knives were, so to speak, always on the table, not under it, as in many another Latin American countries.
In another words, Venezuelan mentality is proud, tough, and militant, and Venezuelans will stand in their place, as they have always been since they became America's 3rd independent nation, after the US and Haiti. Moreover, unlike the US, Venezuelans have gained independency without European support.
Of course, it remains completely unpredictable as the current deadlock ends, and it is always possible that Maduro withdraws and tries to calm the tough guy in the White House.
Nevertheless, president Trump should be careful.
