The liberalisation of trade and transport conditions between Poland and Ukraine resulting from the decision of the European Union has produced mixed effects, affecting competition, prices and reactions of various interest groups. Carriers, farmers and authorities respond to these changes, adapting their strategies and calling for further modifications to regulations. In the article we will look at how liberalisation affects the transport services market, the situation of farmers and the overall condition of the Polish economy in the context of relations with Ukraine.
Changes in the transport market
In the first half of 2024, the number of Ukrainian carriers entering Poland decreased to 206 thousand, compared to 267 1000 a year earlier. In turn, Polish carriers entered Ukraine only 21 1000 times, compared to 38 1000 a year earlier. According to data of the Association of global Road Carriers (ZMPD), the simplification in the number of Ukrainian carriers' entries results from the introduction of fresh mobilization regulations in Ukraine. Polish carriers, fearing the increasing risks associated with transport to the East, are looking for alternate directions.
According to Piotr Mikiel, manager of ZMPD, the problem is not the specified amendment of the agreement between the EU and Ukraine, which took place on 20 June 2024, but alternatively the deficiency of assurance of Polish companies in the east marketplace and their search for fresh markets. Mikiel adds that a return to the quota strategy could be an chance to regain lost marketplace shares, but without concrete action, these changes may not be sufficient.
Amendment of the Polish Business Agreement and Reactions
The Ministry of Infrastructure in Poland claims that the fresh regulations resulting from the agreement are more favourable for Polish companies. The mechanisms put in place for monitoring the transport marketplace and the ability to take measures to defend the marketplace are aimed at stabilising the situation. Rafał Jaskowski, manager of the communication office in the Ministry of Infrastructure, emphasises that these changes have protective potential, but entrepreneurs have doubts about their effectiveness.
Representatives of Polish business, specified as Maciej Wroński, president of the Transport and Logistics Employers' Union, indicate that the fresh regulations requiring Ukrainian carriers to meet certain conditions do not change the marketplace situation, mainly due to the deficiency of adequate staff in control services. As a result, Ukrainian carriers proceed to enter the EU "in the clear", looking for orders on the spot.
Jan Buczek, president of ZMPD, critically assesses the fresh contract, calling it a "powdering" of the erstwhile version. In his opinion, there is no determination from the Polish government and EU officials to effectively defend the interests of Polish carriers. Buczek emphasizes that Polish transport companies lose marketplace shares and the situation becomes critical, leading any of them to the brink of bankruptcy.
Competition and marketplace Restrictions
Due to the economical slowdown in Western Europe, Polish carriers have limited opportunities to diversify their operations. A smaller number of orders and expanding competition make the problem of deficiency of price competitiveness increasingly acute.
Maciej Wroński points out the anticipation of solving the problem without the European Commission having to intervene, by enforcing Polish rules on the posting of workers in road transport. According to these regulations, Ukrainian carriers should supply their drivers with working conditions comparable to those in force in Poland. However, the deficiency of appropriate supervision leaves these regulations dead. In addition, the implementation of the SENT system, which would evidence the activity of Ukrainian carriers in Poland, was planned for 1 July 2024.
Agricultural marketplace Stabilisation
While the transport marketplace is inactive struggling, the situation in the agricultural marketplace has stabilised. The Polish Association of Grain Producers considers that the current situation on the cereal marketplace is ‘stable’. Imports from Ukraine, which in the late 2023-2024 caused many farmers' protests, are presently taking place on a much smaller scale. Marcin Gryn, vice president of the union, emphasizes that Polish grain producers returned to Western European markets, from which they had previously been pushed by Ukrainian competitors.
The problem of excessive inflow of cereals to Poland was partially solved by unlocking transit through Ukrainian and Romanian black sea ports. The National Centre for Agriculture Support (COWR) confirms that most Ukrainian agricultural goods are presently entering 3rd countries and EU associate States via Black Sea ports. The trade restrictions introduced on imports of goods from Ukraine to Poland are of peculiar importance for cereal producers specified as wheat and maize.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture show that imports of wheat from Ukraine fell from 337,8 1000 tonnes in January-April 2023 to just 100 tonnes in the same period of 2024. A akin trend was observed for maize and barley.
Challenges on the Horizon
Although the current situation on the agricultural marketplace seems stable, experts inform against possible risks. Łukasz Ambroziak of the Institute for Agriculture and Food Management notes that despite certain safeguards at EU and national level, Polish poultry producers may face increased competition from Ukrainian suppliers. It is crucial that the current stabilisation continues besides after the end of the harvest period, both on the Polish and EU markets.
The Ministry of Agriculture points out that, although the situation in the Black Sea is "relatively stable", war conditions can lead to a change in this situation in the future. In the event of the abolition of the embargo and a change in the situation in the Black Sea, Ukrainian cereals can again scope Poland in larger quantities. However, according to the ministry, current price and marketplace conditions indicate that the possible influx will not have as large a scale as at the beginning of the war.
Summary
The liberalisation of trade and transport conditions with Ukraine has provoked complex reactions at different levels of the market. While the transport sector faces competition and regulatory challenges, the agricultural marketplace seems to stabilise after the stormy year 2023. Further monitoring of the situation and flexible adjustment of regulations will be crucial for the future of Polish carriers and farmers to defend national interests in rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.
Continued here:
Polish business is inactive losing due to Ukraine. Government action did not deliver the expected result
