The Polish political scene in 2025 undergoes a real revolution. fresh presidential polls uncover dramatic changes in support of candidates who may surprise many observers. Will the upcoming presidential elections bring a breakthrough, or will they confirm the current agreement of forces? Let's go over the latest public opinion polls.
Rafał Trzaskowski in the lead, but the difference decreases
According to the latest poll conducted by the Institute for marketplace and Social investigation (IBRiS) for “Events” of Polsat, if presidential elections were held in the second half of February 2025, Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition would get 35.2% support. On Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by Law and Justice (PiS), would vote 26.5% respondents. On the another hand, Sławomir Mentzen from the Confederate would be in favour 15.7% voters. It is worth noting that the difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki is just 8.7 percent pointsWhich indicates a increasing competition.
Sławomir Mentzen's dynamic growth
Sławomir Mentzen, representing the Confederation, noted significant growth support compared to erstwhile studies. His score 15.7% is an increase of 4.2 percent points against the erstwhile poll, making it 1 of the biggest wins of the last weeks. specified a consequence can be evidence of the expanding influence of the Confederation on the Polish political scene.
Stabilisation of support for another candidates
The following positions in the poll included:
- Simon Holovnia (Third Road): 6.2% support.
- Magdalena Biejat (New Left): 3.3% support.
- Adrian Zandberg (Total lot): 1.4% support.
- Marek Jakubiak (Free Republicans): 1% support.
- Krzysztof Stanowski: 0.5% support.
- Grzegorz Braun: 0.4% support.
9.9% respondents declared that there was no decision.
Increased interest in elections
The survey besides shows that 65.1% the respondents declared their willingness to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. That suggests high interest citizens in the electoral process, which could affect the final results of the vote.
Comparison with another surveys
Other studies, specified as a survey conducted by CBOS in March 2025, besides indicate akin trends. In this survey Rafał Trzaskowski received 34% support, and Karol Nawrocki26%. Confederation noted 18% support, which constitutes increase by 1 percent point compared to the erstwhile month. On the another hand, Simon Holovnia received 5% support, and Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg rod 2%.
Analysis of trends and forecasts
Both polls indicate dynamic changes in support of candidates. Fall by Karol Nawrocki about 2.4 percent points compared to the erstwhile period may propose weakness PiS position in the presidential race. In turn growth support for Sławomir Mentzen o 4.2 percent points could be the consequence of an effective Confederate run and the increasing discontent of any voters from conventional political parties.
Stable support for Rafał Trzaskowski may show persistent The strength of the Civic Coalition, although the decreasing difference between him and Nawrocki may indicate increased competition In the race for the president's seat.
More here:
Poland on the Edge: The presidential poll reveals unexpected twists!
