Dagmara Jakubczak
On June 22, 2025, early in the morning, Donald Trump sat in the White home Situation Room. On the screens, surrounded by advisors and military, he watched precise hits by American bombers on Iranian atomic installations. A hat with the slogan “Make America large Again”, a red tie, a focused face – a painting that in a fraction of a second went around the planet media and rekindled concerns about the future of the mediate East.
President Donald J. Trump in The Situation Room, June 21, 2025 pic.twitter.com/V4pRVzsqcZ
— The White home (@WhiteHouse) June 22, 2025The decision to attack. Israel backstage
The decision to join the Israeli offensive was quick, but not surprising. For weeks, it has been said that Israel is preparing to strike itself. However, the deficiency of adequate bombs to destruct underground installations in Fordow or Natanz forced Prime Minister Netanyahu to scope for American aid. Trump didn't hesitate long.
The threat of war. Iran reaction and escalation
Photographs from the White House, although full of symbols, do not reflect the scale of the geopolitical earthquake. Although the Pentagon assured that it was a precise operation aimed at "stopping Iran's atomic program", Tehran took the attack as a declaration of war. Within hours, the Iranian safety Council met at an extraordinary meeting. Threats came from the Ayatollahs: retaliation will be inevitable.
Possible retaliatory scenarios
– We have reached the point where the situation has become almost uncontrolled for the US – warns Jan Busse, a politician from the University of Bundeswehr. – Further developments depend solely on Iran's response.
Iran has respective possible ways to retaliate. He may choose to attack straight on U.S. bases in Bahrain or Qatar. It can besides usage indirect tools – supported militias in Iraq or Yemen, which can hit, giving Tehran a field to disown responsibility. Finally, it can close the Strait of Ormuz, which would paralyze global oil trade and trigger a domino effect on global markets. Nicole Deitelhoff, an expert from Frankfurt, considers this second script to be the least likely but not impossible.
The secret signal and Trump calculation
However, there are voices that Washington and Tehran had previously had contact. Amwaj.media platform reports that the Americans have warned Iran that the operation does not mean a full-scale conflict and will limit itself to hitting atomic infrastructure. If that's true, it could explain Tehran's abstinence in the first hours after the raid.
Trump's decision to intervene was a political paradox. inactive in the election campaign, he declared that he would end the “endless wars”. But now that Netanjahu has put him before a choice – either idleness or support – he has decided to act. “It’s the Netanjahu’s master move,” Deitelhoff comments. But is it effective? There is no certainty that Iran's atomic program has truly been destroyed.
A Europe amazed and powerless
Meanwhile, Europe, as usual at specified times, reacted with delay. German, French, and British diplomats, who had even a fewer days earlier talked to the chief of Iranian diplomacy, learned about media raids. Berlin expressed concern, but no circumstantial declarations were made.
“Europe is practically paralyzed in this conflict,” Deitelhoff states. – Germany can supply arms to Israel, but they have neither military nor political force to influence the situation.
The shadow of chaos. Will Iran fall apart?
Jan Busse adds that the only script in which Europe would be at the heart of events would be the collapse of the Iranian regime. specified chaos – comparable to Iraq after 2003 – would mean mass migration, radicalization and the creation of a new, unpredictable space of conflict. Navid Kermani recalls that Iran is simply a multiethnic country, and 45 percent of its inhabitants do not talk Persian. specified a mixture, under civilian war conditions, could explode.
What's next?
Will Tehran decide to retaliate? Will the planet stand on the brink of war again? present there are more questions than answers. But 1 thing is certain: the mediate East has just entered a fresh phase of tension. And Europe – as usual – stayed in the audience.
DF, thefad.pl / Source: Reuters, AP News, Financial Times
