The debate on the return of conscription to the army is increasingly being brought to the question "or?" I think that's a mistake. This is no longer a question of whether, but of when, and above all of what shape. The starting point for specified discussion should be neither the current numbers of armed forces nor the emotions associated with public debate. The analysis should start with the forecast form of threats to State security.
They find what capacity we request – and only these capacities translate into an organisational model of the armed forces (structure and numbers), including a strategy of replenishment of individual resources. Importantly, this is not just a problem for the armed forces. This is simply a substance of the full state safety strategy – including administration, economy, critical infrastructure and social resilience, including another services and agencies, as well as a civilian protection/defence system.
Today's conflicts are clear: the state wins not only the army, but besides the ability to function under force as a whole. In this analysis, no
one of the key factors – demography can be ignored. Statistical data are clear: Poland shrinks and ages. This means that the conventional mass collection model, based on a broad database of young vintages, is becoming little real. All the more reason for the question, not about the return of the collection itself, but about its form – selective, competent, possibly hybrid, closely linked to the strategy of reserves and the needs of the state.
At the same time, the roles request to be clearly separated. It is not the generals who decide to suspend compulsory military service. This is simply a political decision – requiring a balance of costs, social acceptance and long-term imagination of the state. The function of soldiers is different: providing reliable data, realistic forecasts and fair hazard assessment. And the quality of this data depends on whether the decision – regardless of its direction – will be a liable decision and, above all, a safe state.
The text comes from the LinkedIn profile of the general weapon Maciej Klish
