Commentary by Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of Leviathan
The enthusiasm of the Polish industrial sector does not fade. The PMI in March increased by 0.1 points to 50.7 points. That's the best score since 2022. However, there is something to be enjoyed and to announce the reflection of 1 of the most crucial sectors of the economy. In our opinion, unfortunately, no. It's a temporary improvement in the temper behind the mechanics of overtaking customs war.
The manufacture around the planet knew that Donald Trump's word would be dynamic and unpredictable. However, we have not estimated the magnitude of changes. Concerns about another U.S. President's ideas in the trade war make everyone order and buy what they can and buy as shortly as possible.
Hence, we have an increase in the number of fresh orders in the PMI index. Exports have besides increased beyond average. The moods have improved for the next 12 months, mainly due to expectations of recovery of request or the influx of fresh funds from the KPO.
Of course, we consider that possibly these affirmative expectations will indeed find their lasting reflection in the data. For now, however, in the publications of the CSO this optimism is vain.
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