Leaving behind the war of the alleged West against Russia in Ukraine costs money. Increasingly, countries that effort to avoid engagement on either side in the current conflict gotta face unforeseen problems. The latest example is Georgia.
From the Colorful Revolution to the Violent Normality
Let us remind that Georgia was the subject of geopolitical competitions and attempts to destabilise the alleged soft underbelly of Russia from the very beginning of its modern statehood, i.e. from the dissolution of the russian Union. The utmost ethnonationalism of her first president, Gamsachurdi reconnaissance, led to the failure of control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and later besides the establishment of pro-Turkish separatistism in Adjaria. After a comparatively peaceful period of government Eduardo SzedwardnadzeIn 2003, Tbilisi became the camp of 1 of the first in the post-lost area of colorful revolutions, the alleged revolution of roses, which brought to power prepared by the Anglo-Saxons Mikhail Saakashvili.
Known for trying to swallow his own tie in front of tv cameras, suspected of being prone to drugs, the authoritarian president retired in disgrace in 2012. It has previously provoked a conflict with Moscow, which has led to the permanent failure of these separatist regions and their designation as independent states by Russia and respective another countries. The 2012 election was won by the organization created by the wealthiest Georgian, oligarch Ivanishvili’s Bid. He briefly became Prime Minister of the fresh government to later keep power in Tbilisi with his people. comparative stableness has prevailed.
Systemic weaknesses
Georgia is simply a country severely weakened and plunged into systemic, indelible weaknesses and contradictions. The first is of a systemic-political nature. This parliamentary republic is referred to as an oligarchical democracy, in which real power is exercised by those with the top resources. present it is Ivanishvili, but next day individual else can rise the stakes. manager of the Georgian Institute of Eurasia, Dr. Gulbaat Rcchilagze, says in an interview with “Thinking Poland” that there is another problem: the organization of power has not only no circumstantial ideology, but even a imagination of the country's development, it is only reactive. The organization system, dominated by 2 groups, does not offer many alternatives. This is not conducive to the dominance of these 2 forces – the Georgian Dream organization – Democratic Georgia, controlled by an influential billionaire; and the formation founded by Saakashvili and supported by the alleged West – the United National Movement. possible competitors have been eliminated over the years in various ways.
The second tender point of the Caucasian republic is the economical situation. As a consequence of successive crises, especially those global, but besides neoliberal reforms implemented by subsequent ruling teams, in 2022 a gigantic price increase led to 17% of Georgia's population falling below the poorness line. Many were forced to emigrate – primarily to Russia, but in fresh years besides to the countries of the European Union, including Poland. Only late did the Georgian government of Dream decision somewhat towards social conservativeism, introducing regulated prices to certain goods of primary need.
The 3rd weakness is due to geopolitics. Georgia is at the minute the only foothold of Washington in the Caucasus. The neoconservative plans play the function of a provocatrator and conflict trigger in the confederate rungs of Russia. In the Constitution of the Republic, we will inactive find an absurd point in the quest for EU and NATO membership, although it is the position of the second that has led to the most serious crisis in the cold war in years and the failure of crucial areas.
Oligarchy Pragmatism
The Bidzina Ivanishvili actually controls subsequent cabinets created by its party. It focuses on strength ministries and strategical positions, remaining offices allowing its allies to fill. His only uncontrollable office is the office of President, held by Salome Zurabishvili. The only case known today, perhaps, is that she began her political career in Georgia as shortly as she resigned from the position of Ambassador ...France. Zurabishvili had a double citizenship, and with the country of her ancestors it was comparatively small.
Georgian Dreams – Democratic Georgia has no ideology or circumstantial agenda. He's driven by situational pragmatism. The model of this pragmatism is complicated relations with Russia. There can be no formal normalization, after the war of 2008 it is considered that Moscow controls owned de jure to Georgia, the areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Diplomatic relations haven't existed since. Interbank settlements between the 2 countries are not possible. On the another hand, the current governments are practically silent on the Abchasian and South-Sotetian issues. De facto accepted status quo. And the Russian Federation is Georgia's largest trading partner. Its function in exports and imports increased by 50% in 2022 as the alleged West introduced unprecedented economical sanctions. Georgian authorities did not join them. Even recently, they planned to launch direct air connections with Russian cities for the first time in years. Business, though frequently in the grey area, flourishes. That's what Ivanishvili's pragmatists are all about.
You pay for pragmatism. In June 2022, the EU denied Georgia candidate status. Protesters with EU flags took to the streets. Not many then.
Transparency of influences
In 1938, the first alleged abroad agents regulations were adopted in the United States to regulate the activities of organisations financed from abroad. Later akin rules were introduced by many another countries, including the Russian Federation. Canada has late announced work on them, fearing Chinese influence. The European Commission is besides discussing the matter.
With a akin task introducing transparency of backing for NGOs and foundations operating in Georgia, a tiny faction of the People's Power was created early in the year, cooperating with Georgian Dream. This movement was created by the splits from the ruling party, utilizing unmistakably anti-war rhetoric and respecting the effects of possible confrontation with Moscow. It was all about transparency and transparency of sponsors. The draft law on the transparency of abroad influences was intended to concern only legal persons whose budget in excess of 20% comes from abroad. A registry of specified associations and foundations would be established publically available. Without any another consequences or restrictions on their functioning.
Hit the table...
The very appearance of the task has become a trigger for protests, not from below. On March 7, demonstrators on Rustaweli Avenue demanded an immediate resignation from the bill. On March 8, there was a riot. any of the “peaceful demonstrators” of these events attacked the police utilizing Molotov stones and cocktails. Stores were taken and cars were set on fire in the center of Tbilisi Capital. The plan was to take over the Parliament building and its occupation. Ordering forces reacted reasonably moderately; a 100 and a twelve people were detained, most of whom were released home.
Who took the streets of the capital of Georgia? Most likely students and young people, pupils sponsored from the so-called. Western programs carried out by various foundations and supporters of neoliberal pro-Western lecturers surviving just from abroad grants. Among them were not only Georgian flags, but besides EU, American and highly many Ukrainian. The protesters were joined by local nationalists chanting the names of the capitals of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in fact openly calling for the military reintegration of the lost territories.
Washington trace
A unusual coincidence, the French diplomat who was present the president of Georgia, Zurabishvili, was on an authoritative visit to the United States. It was even more peculiar that she recorded a brief speech to her fellow countrymen in the Caucasus, in which she supported the protesters, speaking in her homeland government on abroad agents, that the Georgian bill's draft was a calculus of Russian solutions. The background for this speech was the fresh York Statue of Liberty.
Administration Joe BidenaOf course, she explicitly supported the "peaceful demonstrators". Summing up talks with Salome Zurabishvili, White home advisor for national security, Jake Sullivanstated: "Parties discussed the request to guarantee that Russia feels the real economical price of sanctions, export controls and another economical constraints introduced by the United States and a coalition involving more than 30 allies and partners". rather clear allusion: Ivanishvili's pragmatism does not like behind the ocean.
It is worth noting that most of the various foundations, associations and organisations that could be covered by the fresh Transparency of abroad Influences Act are structures of maintaining from overseas, including those whose generous sponsor is George Soros and his boy Alexander Soros.
The Kiev Trail
The war in Ukraine continues, the country burns and its prospects are, regardless of the course of events, rather dark. However, it does not bother Kiev in verbal (or just?) interference in the interior affairs of another countries. The Georgian direction is highly popular in Ukraine. Let us remind at least the stormy career of an international, "colour revolutionary", Micheil Saakazwili, over Dnieprem and Odessa.
Saakashvili is presently behind bars due to the fact that he has inadvertently and not reasonably returned to Georgia, in which he has not been falsely accused of a number of abuses from his authoritative presidency. However, any of his erstwhile companions proceed to engage in active public activities. erstwhile Head of the Home Office, convicted of violent repression against the opposition, Vana Merabiszvili, clearly outlined the political objectives of its environment: "We are about to launch mass protests, and I am certain that Georgian society will support us to bring about a change of government and to the authority of the pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian government. So Ukraine is not alone”. So all for Ukraine!
8 March Volodymyr Zelenski in his speech all evening, he assured Kiev's support for the "democratic" and "European" choice of Georgia. For more decisive action, he warmed up those gathered in Tbilisi Georgian, the head of the parliamentary faction of the presidential organization Servant of the Nation, David Arachami.
Gia Wolski, vice-president of the Georgian Parliament, however, reported that among the extremist wing of the protesters there were respective twelve Saakashvili militants who went on short “relopes” from the front in Ukraine to tighten the course of events.
Submission
Georgian Dreams – Democratic Georgia was never a skeptical group towards the alleged West. On the contrary, the pragmatism of oligarchy and its people caused that the approach to Washington was rather realistic, which meant that it was taken into account that Americans should be counted.
Ivanishvili's economical pragmatism is in the first place the defence of interests, those of the most measurable, own and own crew. erstwhile clear signals were sent from Washington and Brussels about the anticipation of imposing sanctions, including individual ones, against Georgian ruling class representatives, the ruling camp immediately resigned a minute earlier in the parliament of the bill. On March 10, MEPs of all groups voted to reject and resign from further reading. The part, guided by a sense of dignity, in parliament did not appear that day.
Why the change? 9 March Prime Minister Iraq Garibashvili He took a call from Washington. He spoke to the State Department counselor, Derek Chollet.. What did the American authoritative say to him? It will stay a mystery, at least until individual from Georgian Dream decides to talk out about the course of fresh days.
Sharp about Ukrainian interference
Iraq Garibaszvili has late turned 40. He first became Prime Minister erstwhile he was small over 30. He was besides able to work in ministerial positions – he headed the police and public safety department and then the defence department. A wonderful kid of Georgian politics, spotted and promoted by Ivanishvili years ago.
Iraq GaribashviliOn March 12, he gave an interview to Imedi television. He did not dress up in words, despite the failure of his formation and withdrawal from the bill. It got Zelensky the most. Garibaszvili mentioned that he had already known about the possible outbreak of war in the fall of 2021. "We had information about this, including from our colleagues, partners. erstwhile did Saakashvili arrive in Georgia? It was planned, the main goal was to organize a coup and bring our country into war at the right time. We have no uncertainty about this today" – he spoke plainly. He referred to the increasingly emerging thesis that Kiev wanted to open the second front of the war with Russia as shortly as possible, prompting individual countries to face Moscow. "Maybe it would be a relief for Ukraine to distract Russia from Georgia. If in power the Saakashvili organization was founded, the United National Movement, Georgia would have turned into a field and we would have a second Mariupol here. Ukraine would thus gain time’ – he argued.
"This is direct interference in Georgia's interior affairs. Let the Ukrainian authorities be more afraid about themselves and their country. Georgia can handle itself. The Ukrainian authorities are unhappy that Georgia has not joined the conflict" “The head of government in Tbilisi summed up sharply.
These words were equally acutely reacted by the Ministry of abroad Affairs in Kiev, categorically denying any interference in the interior Georgian policy. “Ukraine is and will stay a friend of the Georgian people” said the spokesperson for the ministry, Oleg Nikolenko. Note: not “a friend of Georgia”, but “a Georgian people”. More specifically, the part of it that went on the streets against the present Georgian government of Dream.
Elections or a creeping coup?
The neoliberal camp, controlled by American centres, won a tactical triumph in Georgia. Protests have been somewhat relaxed, but they can be suppressed for months to come. Their main postulate, following the resignation of the Act acting as their trigger, is the resignation of the government and early elections (according to the electoral calendar they should take place in 2024). This subject may appear regularly in the following months. On the another hand, it must be admitted that the current opposition has small chance of electoral success. And that's what might be causing her and her promoters to decision unconstitutionally, into a tadpole-like tadpole.
Gulbaat Rcchiladze predicts that Georgians can wait just a creeping, spread over a longer period of coup. The Georgian Dream of Ivanishvili had already made concessions, even though he withdrew from the proposed reforms of the electoral code in 2019. And then the street was pushing.
Tbilisi by definition cannot lead a pro-Russian policy. It is limited to pragmatic neutrality resulting from rational calculation of its own interests in the sphere of economy and security. president of the Russian Pride, Mr Volodin, however, he rightly commented that “Georgia has lost its chance of sovereignty. The draft abroad Agents Act limited Washington's influence on the country's interior political life”.
Time will show whether the behaviour of the Georgian ruling class was an unforgivable manifestation of a weakness in politics, to which international, above all Anglo-Saxons, predators will absolutely benefit; or another manifestation of pragmatism. 1 thing is certain: there will be fires around Russia. For their perpetrators, the destiny of the nations burning in their fire is completely indifferent.
Mateusz Piskorski
