Emmanuel Todd is simply a French intellectual known for the front pages of newspapers and mainstream media. He is simply a historian, polytologist, an anthropologist, sociologist and demographer, best known for having published a technological analysis in 1976, erstwhile he was only 25, in which he predicted the collapse of the russian Union. The time and circumstances of this geopolitical earthquake predicted almost exactly.
Multi-thousandths outlay
Prof. Todd was besides published and read in Poland (The end of the empire. Reflections on the Distribution of the American Empire, Warsaw 2003; of Youssefem Courbage – Meeting of Civilization, Kraków 2009). A French student has just written a book on the ongoing war in Ukraine (La Troisième Guerre mondiale a commencé), or alternatively its broad global context. His work will most likely not be published in Poland – for now only the French and nipponese editions are planned.
This is about the main besides its already sold in over 100,000 copies of the last work He talked. with writer of the paper “Le Figaro” (one of the largest, oldest newspapers of the French mainstream), Alexandr Devecchio.
To be or not to be the American Empire
Todd disagrees with the thesis put forward by an American political scientist, the creator of an offensive realism in discipline about global relations, Prof. John Mearsheimer. Let us callback that the second is of the opinion that the current conflict is of existential importance for Moscow, but no longer for Washington, who could in rule afford to retreat from the replacement war waged by the alleged West in Ukraine. "This war has taken on existential importance for the United States. Like Russia, they cannot retreat from it either. Therefore, present we are in a state of permanent war, a clash which must consequence in the collapse of 1 side or the other." – not very optimistic with the French professor.
Todd has been predicting the dusk of American hegemony for years, at the same time pointing out that it will run in convulsions. Their manifestation will include an effort to strengthen American control over its satellites and protectorates, primarily continental Europe and Japan.
However, Washington vassals are slow beginning to realize the dangers of remaining with a falling empire. Therefore, as Prof. Todd claims, the main perpetrator of the prolonged war is Washington – London – Warsaw – Kiev. It is to be limited to the actual nucleus of NATO. In this sense, Warsaw has shared work for creating a bloody conflict and its consequences. "The Ukraine whose army has been decently subordinate to NATO troops (American, British, Polish) at least since 2014 has been a associate of NATO de facto" – reminds the French, sharing Mearsheimer's diagnosis in this regard. In this sense, it reminds us, from the point of view of Russia, the present war is indeed of a nature "defensive and preventive".
Russia: economical resilience and mythical isolation
Todd points out the surprise that caused the first months of the war in Ukraine. Most forecasts were based on Russia's designation as a military giant and an economical dwarf. However, it turned out that military Moscow is not doing so well, but it has maintained its opposition to the economical sanctions of the alleged West, although they have an unprecedented scale in history. "Ukraine has not been crushed militarily, although it has already lost 16% of its territory. Russia was not destroyed economically. As we talk today, the ruble has gained 8% from the dollar and 18% from the euro since the start of the war" – notes the French scholar. It besides points to the sterileness of GDP fetishization as an indicator of Russia's alleged economical weakness compared to its western opponent.
"War becomes a test in the field of political economics, is simply a large revelation. GDP of Russia and Belarus is just 3.3% of western GDP (United States, English-speaking sphere, Europe, Japan, South Korea), which is nothing. The question arises as to how specified microscopic GDP manages and constantly produces rockets. The problem is that GDP is simply a fictional production benchmark. If we subtract half of the overestimated wellness spending from US GDP, the ‘good’ generated by lawyers, the most overcrowded prisons in the world, the full economy of fictional services, specified as ‘production’ of $15 or 20,000 economists making an average of $120,000, we will conclude that a crucial part of this GDP is simply a soap bubble. War brings us back to the real economy, allows us to realize the actual wealth of nations, the ability to produce and thus to carry out armed actions" - It's Todd.
All of this is further related to the fact that the isolation of the Russian Federation is only a myth. “West newspapers behave tragically. They keep saying, ‘Russia is isolated, Russia is isolated’. However, erstwhile we look at the United Nations vote, we see that 75% of the planet does not support the West, which then seems very small.” – prof. Todd says.
Miscalculation?
So where are the problems of the Russian side with the implementation of the first conflict scenarios? Various experts, commentators and analysts have written rather a lot about this. Todd is not first here, noting the misinformation he believed in in Moscow before the operation began. However, he adds an interesting reflection about Ukrainians and Ukrainian society themselves. "I think the Kremlin's calculation was that this disintegrating community would collapse under the first shock, or even say hello to holy Russia, Mama." Meanwhile, it turned out that a society in decay, fed by external financial assistance and weapons, could find a fresh kind of balance, or even a certain perspective, hope. The Russians couldn't have predicted it. No 1 could’ – he says. In fact, the situation we're dealing with is actually new. In the absence of historical precedents, forecasting the behaviour of society seems impossible.
War on Europe
As has already been mentioned, Todd believes that the American Empire will effort to keep its existing protectorates under control at all costs, whose possession allows them to participate in the current conflict. ‘If we read Big chessboard Brzeziński, we will see that the American Empire was created with the end of planet War II through the conquest of Germany and Japan, which inactive stay its protectorates. As the American strategy shrinks, it exerts expanding force on the local elites of these protectorates (I am referring to Europe as a whole). The first to lose all national autonomy will be (actually already) English and Australians. The net created specified intense ties with the United States in the Anglosphere that its academic, media, artistic elites were someway annexed. On the European continent, our national languages defend us from this, but the decline in our autonomy is crucial and violent" - Politologist says.
Neoliberalism vs. Industrial Capitalism
Why is the Russian economy doing comparatively well, effectively based on the pressures created by the alleged West? Perhaps, as Todd believes, a thing in the different systems and economical models. "If we look at production rates, we will see data on the Russian economy. In 2014, we introduced the first crucial sanctions against Russia, which in this period increased wheat production from 40 to 90 million tonnes in 2020. At the same time, as a consequence of neoliberalism, American wheat production decreased from 80 million tonnes in 1980 to 40 million tonnes in 2020 – notes.
According to the French intellectual, it turned out that the legendary flexibility and ability to adapt neoliberal economies proved to be much little effective than mechanisms based on ‘significant function of the State’, though at the same time Todd emphasizes that himself Vladimir Putin it continues to respect the basic principles of the free marketplace economy.
World War III
"It is clear that the conflict that has evolved from a limited territorial war to a global economical confrontation between the full The west, on the 1 hand, and Russia supported by China, on the other, is already a planet war. Even if the scale of armed aggression is tiny compared to erstwhile planet wars” says Todd. Is this a public figure, a colorful exaggeration of the process in which we all participate? A French political scientist says not: “We deliver weapons all the time. We kill Russians, even if we don't admit it openly. In fact, we Europeans are engaged economically. We feel our actual participation in the war through inflation and deficits.”.
"America is weak. opposition by the Russian economy pushes the American imperial strategy to the edge of the abyss. No 1 expected the Russian economy to last under the force of NATO’s “economic power”. I think the Russians themselves did not anticipate this.” – Emmanuel Todd speaking.
Emmanuel Todd's statements are 1 of the examples of voice in the public debate on the Seine, which, unlike the 1 on the Vistula, is inactive possible on the most crucial issues. This is besides a clear indication of the current tragedy, considered by Todd as a planet war, among which Poland unfortunately was.
Mateusz Piskorski
