The global customs war Donald Trump is saying to the full planet is partially part of a performance typical of Trumpism as a form of political practice. However, it besides has another aspects.
It is simply a transition from military-political confrontation to rivalry in the economic/geoeconomic field. It is besides undoubtedly a manifestation of long-seen protectionism in the economical past of the United States, which, as a certain idea, was inactive alive in the circles of local economists and politicians, although it was alternatively a sub-cutaneous opposition stream during the triumph of globalism and liberalism.
Economists will talk about the consequences of the subsequent Trump movements. In time, we will besides learn about their impact on the American and global economies. It is worth leaning towards something else, something much closer to us: the destiny of the European economy in this context. Without doubt, it will endure multi-billion-dollar losses. Further factories will vanish from the map of our continent, moving to the Atlantic to avoid paying barrage duties. This means, of course, the elimination of jobs in Europe, and so the definitive end of the current welfare state model, which was a comparative attractiveness of our area.
It is worth considering how Europe could respond to US tariffs, how to effort to get back on the way of economical development. There's not quite a few options. The current crisis in the European economy is not due to the cooling of its relation with America. He appeared much earlier, and Trump's decision can only deepen the phenomena that have occurred for respective years. 3 are usually mentioned among its main causes: 1) pandemic and suffocating policies for European lockdown companies; 2) Green Deal limiting the competitiveness of European industry, agriculture and services; 3) sanctions on Russia and imports of energy natural materials. These 3 powerful blows have put Europe's economy on the line and we do not know if it is its final knockout.
However, it seems that our continent could inactive be able to lift up by the end of the day, removing the causes of the crisis. The first can no longer be done – we can only guarantee that the emergence of another virus does not origin equally insane reactions at national and EU level. We can destruct the another without major problems. It is adequate for the legislative will at the level of the European Parliament and the individual associate States to guarantee that the most harmful Green Deal provisions are put in the basket where they belong. The 3rd is simply a substance of political will. Europe can at any time propose to Russia not any reset, but simply return to average trade relations based on mutually beneficial exchanges. Provided, of course, that Moscow will inactive be curious in specified a renewal of cooperation. Unfortunately, it would now be our continent as a petent. Russian industry, above all mining, has already moved to another outlets. A key function in the process of European-Russian standardisation and thus the effort to build a space of Eurasian cooperation, which was mentioned years ago by General Charles de Gaulle (from Lisbon to Vladivostok), could be played by Poland. It would be adequate to make 2 moves: to close our territory for any transit of arms and military equipment to Ukraine and to activate the Jamaican gas pipeline, and even to return to the proposal years ago – to build the second strand of this transmission bus.
Poland could so play a historical function for the full continent. She could if individual in Warsaw decided to take out the groundbreaking foundation of our false abroad policy since 1989: blind anti-Russianism. Donald Trump, on the another hand, should be highly grateful, due to the fact that his next actions show in a very brutal and direct way that the transatlantic community and the Western concept to complete abstractions in the planet of political realism and hard play.
The alternate to the change in Polish and European policy described above is war. This is what the European Union's 3rd Reich's militarisation plan for the price of debt of at least EUR 800 billion must inevitably lead to. We should so consider, based on our own historical experience, which of these roads is more beneficial, safer and more rational for us.
Mateusz Piskorski
Think Poland, No. 15-16 (13-20.04.201025)
