The probability of PiS winning the upcoming election is inactive very highBut even higher you gotta put another probability indicator. The chances of creating an independent government by the Law and Justice, without any unpredictable cataclysm, are virtually zero. If, after years, individual looks at the controversy and reads this column, they will be able to usage that “expert” hit themselves, and if I am not mistaken, no 1 will appreciate it. In any case, predicting the results of the elections in Poland is not easy, as many have already seen, so I expressly reserve that I am writing about what is here and now, and what will be in 3 months we will see.
The PiS in 2015 had quite a few assets, first it competed with the completely utilized PO, which in addition to the moles lost the presidential election. fewer people remember this today, but in 2015, even left-wing activists, specified as Legierski, straight said on TVN that they had adequate PO. Of course, the slogan “Poland in ruin”, describing the governments of the PO, was electoral populism, but not so far from social sentiments. Second, the PiS could hit the PO like a drum due to the fact that the scandals and corruption were so large that they cut off the anticipation of effective defence. It was adequate to remind you of VAT fraud, whether Amber Gold and was swept away. All of this was covered by the “Sows tapes” and the escape of Tusk to Brussels.
PiS besides had very strong arguments on the front of the fight against refugees and LGBT ideology, then Poles were afraid of both. 8 years ago, Kaczyński and his organization besides sounded credible in terms of "getting up from their knees", moments even sharper than the Confederate. Before the elections and in the first months after the election, many PiS supporters looked at reform of the judiciary and disgust what “the highest caste” does. And a complete novelty in Polish politics turned out to be a very courageous package of social programs, which for a long time strengthened the Law and Justice Office in power. What's left of these assets? 1 of the only social programs that doesn't make the impression he's done before. Even 800+ did not change the direction of the campaign, mainly due to the fact that the PiS in the remaining areas entered the PO skin.
It is actual that the state's treasury companies in PiS times are a different communicative than the sale in PO times. This is far better managed, but the average voter will always be annoyed that the "fat cats" got to the trough. Sobolewski matrimony became a symbol of this pathology known in Poland for years. Apart from them, there is simply a full group set up on boards, followed by sponsored “disbelief”. It's better not to mention getting out of your knees, due to the fact that you can exposure yourself to ridiculousness, and things are akin with judicial reform. Under the circumstances of the Law and Justice, there is no point of attachment and there is virtually nothing to base the run on. Only a gigantic crisis in opposition ranks or an external crisis like a "pandemic" can supply a fresh anchor.
It is said that the iron electorate of the PiS will swallow everything, but in this message it would be a fewer things to kind out. The real iron electorate of the PiS, who stood on the side of what the PiS preached and for any time realized, has long been disgusted and has a desire to open up. erstwhile an iron electorate recognizes a group of blind believers, of course, specified a group exists, but they end up at the 30% threshold, which does not sue to keep power, even though the PiS manage to win the election. So everything indicates that we're going to be dealing with a fall stick. A broad coalition from the PO, via the Left to the Confederacy, A coalition of PiS and Confederacy would cost both parties a lot. On the 1 hand, these elections seem to be terribly boring, and on the another hand, after the elections, a real political scourge can only begin.
