Will these people give the PiS victory? I was asked to comment, so I read any of the furrows right into the Trwam tv camera. due to the fact that in fact, the decisions made will verify the election consequence and the run itself. The alleged election singles were read by president Jarosław Kaczyński himself. This time Krzysztof Sobolewski was sent to journalists. This may not mean much, of course, but I would not be so certain of the dogmatic view that everything is full decided by the president of the Law and Justice Office.
However, if you are looking for a concrete answer to the question of where these and not another candidates came from, you would request to look at the technological issue – preferably through a political decision-making analysis. Serious political players do not make specified decisions rapidly and in vacuum. Even the detestable (until recently) organization work by Paweł Kukiz, erstwhile he first came to bet on 41 districts, he spent quite a few time gathering candidates, biographies, etc.
In the case of PiS or PO, a number of different factors must be taken into account, starting with a clear definition of the actual decision-maker:
(a) the political and media context of the decision-making period;
b) the arrangement of authority within and outside the party: leaders, merited in combat, coalitions, government, president, competitors and their programs and election strategies, etc.,
(c) the political personality of the decision-maker and his experience, the kind of decision-making,
(d) the socio-economic context of the environment, including various types of surveys, the analysis of the only individuals and their supporting figures in the districts, or the possible to compete for individual groups of voters and the possible to mobilise their own electorate.
From the planes so outlined, we draw out causal-effect sequences and consider which origin was decisive. Obviously, there's quite a few work to do. So for a master's thesis or doctorate – taking into account the widening of the origin base, i.e. looking under the coats of authoritative communications from the staff (to learn more than they compose in the "Rzepa" or show in the "President's ear"). Unfortunately, I have time and desire for a second PhD so far...
Therefore, it remains to put up respective types of hippothesis, based on an overview of the political situation of fresh weeks, the erstwhile observations on the compositions of the lists and the results of the elections, especially those parliamentary from 2015 and the Europarliament from 2019, or on officially published polls.
1. It appears that, in the cast of "out-of-one" seats, the plane of power within the organization and the state of the another policy players was crucial. We have a large number of members of the government (well assessed in the polls, which may in the decision-makers' head translate into better chances in the election campaign), we besides have many "earned in combat", sometimes from the Centre's Agreement. They have played an crucial function in the Law and Justice organization for years (vide Suski, Kuchciński et consortes) and this frequently translates into higher positions than young people, who hope for a political career. For me, the results of Marcin Horała (Gdynia) and Marcin Ociepa (Opole) to the Sejm and Krzysztof Mazur as a candidate for the legislature in Krakow will be peculiarly interesting.
2. one more time Jarosław Kaczyński kept the coalitionmen in check, giving them no more than they had received so far. Leaders of “Understanding” and “Solidar Poland” have taking places, their facilities are much worse (exceptions in Nowy Sącz and Poznań). But we know that not only the number of parliamentary swords is measured by receipts and rewards for loyalty in the United Right camp. Kaczyński himself repeatedly demonstrated an incredible political intuition in the III Polish Republic and the ability to effectively implement the tactical arrangement of the political scene. If it were essential to guarantee the final triumph, he would find a place on the lists (and not only there) even for the PSL.
3. The leader of the PiS consciously besides did his work on the cut of Kukiz 15. He got good names by placing them in average places. If they enter – a plus for them and open the door to a career within a fresh camp, and if they do not enter – seemingly they could not prove that they mean more than average, but loyal politicians from the second and 3rd ranks of the Law and Justices for many years. Unfortunately, the demoliberal organization and election strategy favours specified a logic of decision-making.
4. You can see a certain outflow of strong names, which has become a simple consequence of success in the elections to the European Parliament. This peculiarly shows a set of candidatures for the Senate, where known names and publically recognisable faces actually appear only in districts where the PiS has been winning for many years. With the single-mandate, this discrimination becomes crucial. However, we request to launch anywhere, so at least at the level of rivalry for the Senate, the main run message of the PiS may be more centralised, national and little regional.
In conclusion, the management of the Law and Justice Department decided. I'm certain the expectations of these electoral letters are great. The aim is not only to repeat the 2015 consequence in the Sejm (the strategy of converting votes of d’Hondt will be in the current strategy an ally of the PiS), but besides to defend the Senate, for which they can fight on the side (unified?) of the opposition strong names. Here in the Law and Justice, they hazard a lot, but... it is besides at hand that everything that has worked so far has worked great: a permanent-democratic social policy, an artificially prolonged economical situation, a conglomerate of favorable media, and, at the moment, a comparative peace in the EU arena. This time it may be adequate to win the election and keep power.
