44% Ukrainians would like to start authoritative peace talks with Russia, according to a poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre. The number of people supporting negotiations has been expanding since last autumn, which does not change the fact that the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens inactive disagree with the conditions imposed by the Kremlin.
The conclusions of the investigation conducted by the renowned laboratory have caused confusion among the observers of the conflict in the East. In particular, this 44 percent interest for any became a proof of defetism, and at best a progressive – but already dangerous – decline in the morale of Ukrainian society.
What's the reality? Let us first look at the findings of the researchers, for the devil is in the details. As it turns out, most negotiators live in the confederate regions of Ukraine. Six out of 10 citizens stand for peace talks. This may be due to the fact that a crucial proportion of those surveyed in the south were residents of Odessa, where pro-Russian sympathies stay comparatively large. Relationships with Russian culture, Russianism, are cultivated there, which does not mean collaboration, but alternatively permanent intellectual discomfort that “ours do harm.” Peace talks are a way to halt killing.
Less, due to the fact that 49 percent support for the beginning of negotiations is expressed by Ukrainians from central regions. In western Ukraine, only 35% of respondents accept the idea. Even little enthusiasm to get along with Moscow is shown by the people of the East. Among the Ukrainians surviving closest to the front, barely 1 in 3 would like to start talking. On a national level, 44% of citizens are in favour of this. However, it is clear that there can be no peace at all costs. As many as 83% of respondents announced that they would not support the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporosian districts, as Vladimir Putin would like. It is besides worth noting – as the authors of the survey emphasize – that only civilians who have not yet served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine participated in the study.
What does the military think? The moods in the army are not the subject of public research, so I must appeal to my own experiences and findings. I just got back from Ukraine, where I had the chance to talk to uniforms. With frontists and logistics, distant from offices and no corset of authoritative sharpening. Conclusions? The Ukrainian Army has quite a few problems and shortcomings (this is simply a subject for a separate comment), but it does and will manage to stabilise the front. And if you manage to keep the current dynamics of Western material assistance and do not "interrupt" the mechanics of replenishment of individual states, in spring you will be able to think of more serious grappling operations. In this perspective, there is no place to negotiate, especially those in which the army would quit the “reconquist” or even abandon the field to the opponent.
The Russians are moving out of supplies of dense equipment from russian times – my interlocutors pointed out, predicting a crucial decrease in the possible and effectiveness of the opposing armed forces. Although any analysts in Poland believe that the Russians inactive keep the top-equipped units distant from the front, specified arguments have emerged since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. In my opinion, they are an effort to rationalize, explain or realize the incompetence, defeat and weakness of the Russians. I find it hard to believe that the Kremlin would premeditately let a negative turn of events (a prolonged, bloody and costly war), only to avoid engaging its most valuable military. specified – understood as over-standard quality – simply does not exist.
But the Ukrainians besides have problems, and the results of the Razumkov Center poll reflect them to any extent. Today, it is good to look for traces of patriotic uplift from the first months of full-scale war – now the essence of recruitment remains the forced conscription from which many effort to get out, seeking "retreat", or postponement.
Don't get me wrong. The army inactive enjoys large respect for society. This can be seen on various occasions, for example on the road where the lights of military vehicles overtaken have been lost. Or in places where there is always area for soldiers, as in public transportation. This respect can be seen in shops with “promotions for heroes”, and above all in the ways in which Ukrainians tell about “our boys”. A lot in these relationships of tenderness, pride, concern, understanding.
At the same time, nobody has any illusions that the front is besides for Ukrainians "a device to grind people". Let us add to this widespread disappointment that "the old has returned" – corruption, the privatization of power – and the accompanying belief that the war is waged by the poorest. These are definitely not recruitment circumstances.
In order to look for historical parallels, Ukrainian army soldiers are in the eyes of their countrymen like gladiators. Yes, heros, and at the same time unlucky, forced into the modes of deadly machinery. They may be appreciated, respected, or even loved, but it is better not to be in their place. And on the basis of this aversion (to be a gladiator) there is besides a reflection on the necessity to deal with the Russians.
