The peace conference scheduled for mid-June, where the peace plan of the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, is to be presented, cannot lead to the end of the war for 1 reason – Russia does not participate in the summit. However, this does not mean that a gathering of representatives of respective twelve countries will not matter.
A peace conference without Russia's participation could be a way of bringing peace back to Ukraine only in 1 case – if Russia were a defeated state, whose peace conditions are dictated, as, for example, Germany after the end of planet War II. But now we are very far from specified a scenario.. Nor is there any indication that an interior crisis, specified as in 1917, would happen in Russia erstwhile the Bolshevik Revolution led to the collapse of the political strategy and the withdrawal of Russia from planet War I. The autocratic political strategy created by Vladimir Putin is stable, no serious opposition is seen in Russia, and the vast majority of society retains inactivity or supports the dictator. The Russians, who were the top opponents of the regime, mostly left the country. On the front, the Russian army took the initiative, and although for now it does not seem to be able to make a major breach in Ukrainian defence lines, the Russians are able to wage war for months or even years.
The fact that the West does not anticipate a breakthrough after the summit close Lucerne indicates that Joe Biden, for whom the country's electoral run was more important, is missing. Yes, the United States will be represented in Switzerland at a advanced level (instead of Biden will come Vice president Kamala Harris), but if the conference of 15–16 June were to be a landmark, I'm certain Biden would have shown up. Finally, the current president of the United States became the leader of the West opposition putin, and he would most likely not quit his presence at the peace summit to play a key function in ending the conflict.
The gathering in Switzerland will so mainly be an chance for Ukraine's allies to “count”. For Volodymyr Zelenski, the most crucial thing will be to gather as many countries as possible, which will have a symbolic dimension – will show how much of the planet it accepts, or at least is willing to consider, taking Kiev's perspective. From this point of view, the absence of China, which would have put force on the Russian Federation, is simply a painful blow to Ukraine. In the face of Western sanctions, Russia's dependence on China is expanding and if Beijing had sent a signal that he wanted to end his war effort, Moscow could not have ignored it. However, it is simply a mystery to the polyshinel that Beijing is much closer to the Russian position towards the war, as it is itself curious in rebuilding the planet order that emerged after the Second War.
Also Volodymyr Zelenski's peace plan, which is to be addressed by the participants of the conference, is not possible present due to one, most crucial point – the request to reconstruct the territorial integrity of Ukraine. For Kiev, this means returning to internationally recognized borders of 1991, so returning to control of Ukraine not only the lands lost by it after 24 February 2022, but besides Crimea and the part of Donbas that the separatists occupied in 2014. And this – in current realities – is an unacceptable condition for Russia. Moscow presently has no reason to capitulate – as explained above. It turned out that its economy, at least in the short and average term, was able to function despite the force of Western sanctions. Russia does not endanger to straight affect Western states in the war in Ukraine, NATO has repeatedly stressed that it is simply a defence alliance, and speculations about the possible appearance of, for example, French soldiers in Ukraine afraid only instructors or military advisers, or forces that would relieve the Ukrainian army in specified unwarranted tasks as, for example, the demining of the country. The image of the situation is complemented by the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023, the increasing problems of Ukraine with recruiting fresh soldiers and the mentioned acquisition of the initiative on the front by Russians. Russia is not losing the war present – so talking about restoring territorial integrity Ukraine is as right as it is unrealistic.
Church of Ascension in Zaporozh, destroyed by Russian fire, May 2024.
The latter, in fact, is evidenced by signals from Moscow. Not only does it underestimate the summit in Switzerland, but it besides demands that, as a condition for peace negotiations, the situation at the front be taken into account, that is, the de facto consent to leave occupied areas of Ukraine in Russia. However, there is simply a trap in this postulate: in 2022 Russia has made illegal annexation full Donetsk circuit, Luganese, Zaporosian and Khersonian, but it inactive hasn't occupied the full area of these circuits. As a result, any peace or ceasefire left to Russia by Ukrainian territories occupied after 24 February 2022 will contain casus belli for the future – indeed, from Russia's point of view, part of the territory the Russian Federation considers to be its own will be under Ukrainian control. For Russia, it will not substance that its annexation does not recognise the global community. Russia has its own reality and pursues its own policy.
However, this does not mean that a conference in Switzerland will not matter. The very presentation and publicity of the peace plan proposed by Zelenski is crucial due to the fact that it will remind the planet who is the aggressor in this conflict, and who only wants to return to the position quo ante. No point in the peace plan interferes with Russia nor can it be seen as an effort to weaken it or humiliate it. Ukraine signals this plan that it would like to return to co-existence with Russia on specified conditions as arose after the dissolution of the USSR. That's what makes the narrative. Putin, who tries to convince the planet that Russia is de facto leading in Ukraine any kind of preventive defence war against the alleged safety threat of the Russian Federation.
