At first glance, the distant Chagos Islands appear to be the last place that would be of any interest to the Kremlin. Situated in the mediate of the Indian Ocean, this group of atolls and reefs seems a million miles distant from Moscow’s long-term fixation with Ukraine. specified disparity is besides reflected in the fact that the sparse archipelago offers small in the way of resources, a stark contrast with Russia’s embattled neighbour. However, a brief look through the headlines reveals what could be a geopolitical flashpoint in the making. Overseen by a fresh British government now considering the islands’ future, the area has become just the latest phase in this most bitter of bilateral rivalries. Events in the shadows may subsequently shed light on the finer points of Moscow’s wider clash with the West.
Intrigue surrounding the region can be traced back to an advisory announcement given by the United Nations’ global Court of Justice in 2019. Brought by the island nation of Mauritius, this legal case would advise London to transfer sovereignty over what is officially known as the British Indian Ocean territory (BIOT). Mauritius and the Chagos were governed under the same colonial administration before the second group of islands were made a separate entity in 1965. As a result, the dispute touches on the highly emotive subject of decolonization. This is especially actual as the destiny of the islands’ displaced native population remains uncertain. Despite this, another issue appears even more enticing to rival powers specified as Russia. This is namely the fact that the area is home to a joint Anglo-American military base on the largest island of Diego Garcia. In operation since 1976, the outpost has been utilized to monitor shipping traversing the key chokepoints between Europe and Asia. Indeed, so crucial is this base that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has demanded “strong protections” in a now stalled deal. This agreement would see the UK hold the base for at least 99 years. Much has been made about Beijing’s attempts to take advantage of this uncertainty, peculiarly by the fresh Trump administration. In spite of this, the issue of the Chagos Islands does appear to merge seamlessly with the Kremlin’s frequently overlooked ambitions in the area.
Back to the future
A brief foray into past reveals erstwhile erstwhile it comes to Russian abroad policy. The country’s return to Africa has become a hot topic in fresh years. Seen as a mostly local actor following the russian collapse, Moscow has increasingly asserted itself in a continent erstwhile brimming with friendly local networks. This welcoming environment was the consequence of the socialist superpower’s long-standing support for anti-colonial movements aimed against states like Britain during the Cold War. While condemned for imperialism closer to home, the russian Union would find in the more distant Global South a place where ideology could stay in the abstract. The hard power prized by Moscow would subsequently combine with an effective appeal to internationalism. russian leader Leonid Brezhnev would even declare a “militant union” with the world’s colonized peoples as a result. Fast forward to present and this sleight of hand has experienced a revival. Support for dictatorships in countries specified as Burkina Faso and Mali has allowed for a growth in influence and material enrichment. fresh years have witnessed the widespread if troubled activities of Moscow-backed mercenaries, as well as respective editions of a Russia-Africa Summit. A fresh Department for Partnership with Africa was even announced in fresh days. These platforms have besides allowed for renewed criticism of erstwhile colonial rulers in the West. For example, a colourful press release last year would attack French diplomacy for its “colonial and post-colonial crimes”. The Chagos dispute so offers the perfect chance to likewise challenge the UK, with Putin’s squad eager to court fresh partners following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
A Russian presence in this peculiar case is by no means new. The position of the BIOT has long simmered in British politics always since the first attempts by Mauritius to challenge the position quo in the 1980s. However, it is clear that the effective “globalization” of the case around 2019 was made possible by Russian help. Government sources in Britain have indicated that there have been regular warnings over Moscow’s attempts to “stir up support” in the Mauritian capital of Port Louis. This is supported by work conducted at the Royal United Services Institute think tank. The investigator Jack Watling, for instance, has noted how the Kremlin “carried out crucial diplomatic legwork to guarantee Mauritius had support” for its legal case. Whispers so abound in London over yet another Russian “lawfare” campaign. Attempts to reverse engineer the rules-based global order have surely been a long-running part of Kremlin strategy. This is exemplified by Moscow’s presence at a UN meeting specifically focused on the Chagos issue in May 2020. Demanding that Britain “complete the decolonization of Mauritius”, Russia was just 1 of 7 states to offer a detailed answer in the debate. It goes without saying that there is more to this appeal than meets the eye.
This activity has been supported by a wider charm offensive in Port Louis. Diplomatic niceties aside, Russian efforts to bolster bilateral links appear above all to be a means to a wider goal. An unnamed origin from Whitehall would even state bluntly that “They don’t give a monkey’s about Mauritius – that’s not what it’s about for them. What this is all about is ways they can undermine us and make us look weaker.” The Kremlin’s dedicated policy on the Chagos issue is subsequently complemented by a wider effort to bring the strategically crucial island nation closer into its orbit. Of course, Moscow will be well aware that Mauritius is simply a associate of the British Commonwealth of Nations, which functions as an effective regional network for London. extended diplomatic meetings appear the order of the day in this wider strategy. For instance, an exchange late last year would see Ambassador Irada Zeynalova meet with the Mauritian Culture Minister Mahendra Gondeea. Discussions would centre on the commemoration of russian sailors’ assistance to the country after a cyclone 50 years ago. Despite the worthy nature of this project, it is hard to ignore the possible presence of an ulterior motive. This is best seen in the existence of MAURUSS, a dedicated cultural group between both countries. It will not be lost on the British government that specified efforts now besides extend to close Commonwealth nations specified as the Seychelles.
Deal or no deal?
So what does all this Moscow meddling mean for the stalled Chagos deal? fresh weeks have seen a bewildering series of headlines concerning whether or not the agreement will actually go ahead. While Keir Starmer has continued to express his support for the transfer, this has not been without a deficiency of clarity. In particular, opponents have highlighted how the amount of money tied up with the lease of the military base remains uncertain. With a possible conclusion with Mauritius imminent, the possible safety implications of the deal have abruptly come to the fore. A heated exchange in parliament would see the prime minister inform how continued uncertainty over the BIOT would only be “a gift to our adversaries”. This all but confirms that more is being discussed behind the scenes concerning rivals like the Kremlin. It is possibly no wonder that Richard Dearlove, the erstwhile head of MI6, has stated that Russia’s activity over the islands “fits their playbook precisely”. As aforementioned, however, the final word on this back and distant yet looks set to come from Washington. The Trump administration has been peculiarly keen to tie its effective veto over the Chagos to the threat of possible encroachment by rival powers. This has only been exacerbated by alarming Mauritian claims that concluding a deal will aid “prevent a 3rd organization from entering the base”. As China and even Iran are named as possible trespassers, it is safe to say that a Russian administration, no alien to the area, could well follow suit.
In conclusion, the Chagos Islands represent a fresh episode in this thoroughly tense period in Anglo-Russian affairs. erstwhile mostly associated with espionage on the streets of London and Moscow, relations have one more time gone global to the point that they now affect even this distant archipelago. specified scope is in large part due to the conflict over values powering much of this confrontation. This is exemplified by the fact that events are being watched closely in an embattled Ukraine, which effectively acts as the “Gordian Knot” at the heart of this renewed clash. The head of the Ukrainian parliament’s abroad affairs committee, Oleksandr Merezhko, would even sum up Kyiv’s wider view on the dispute: “The UK is supporting the regulation of law and Ukraine, which makes the UK Russia’s enemy. so Russia is utilizing each chance to undermine stableness and the UK interests.” As a result, a key theoretical link to Europe’s most salient issue runs through the fine print of any deal with Mauritius. While London has stressed time and time again that it has done its homework, it is always worth double checking. After all, it is certain that Moscow will be keeping a close eye on proceedings.
Niall Gray is the copy editor and proofreader of New east Europe. He is besides an AHRC-funded past PhD student at the University of Strathclyde.
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