In order to win the election in the second round, there will be quite a few treatments to take care of the electorates of those candidates who will fall off.
We're in the end of the election run with a possible settlement. Who will win in the first round, which will take place – callback – on 18 May? Let's start with what we should be most curious in, that is, with attendance, which unfortunately does not seem to be high.
As for the level, it is between 63 and 64%. If we combine this with the activity of even the last 2023 parliamentary elections, we have a very visible regression. Not small, due to the fact that from the memory of just 2023, we would now go to the election by 20% less. Why? The answer seems obvious. The reluctance of Poles to the political class and to politics increases from period to month, from week to week. This campaign, which is inactive ongoing, showed that it was a cure.
We had what we've been watching for years: sticking ourselves with sticks by candidates from the left to the right.
Low turnout = weaker legitimacy of the President
We are talking here about a group of voters who do not regularly attend elections that activate. In the case of presidential elections, attendance was usually higher. However, this time it may turn out that it will not fundamentally deviate from the average attendance for all types of voting. However, we must be aware that this means lower legitimacy from the sovereign to the fresh head of state. But there are hard times, and you request to have the support of a maximum number of people to regulation and trust on the electoral verdict. Of course, this is related to the fact that polarization, which has been accompanying us for about 20 years, since 2005 – between Law and Justice and the Civic Platform, now the Civic Coalition – has led to a situation where for many years the percent of voters who have tried to function somewhere between the 2 opposing tribes was small. In these elections, which I want to pay peculiar attention to, we can witness a break. From 2005 to 2020 – I mean presidential elections, but besides parliamentary – we saw absolute dominance from 1 side of the Jarosław Kaczyński camp, from the another side of the Donald Tusk camp. There were three-quarters of Poles who chose from these 2 main parties.
Electoral breakthrough after 2 decades of dominance
In these elections we can witness – for the first time in 20 years – that the 2 main contenders to Belvedere may get a score below 60% in the first round. This means that respective percent of voters decided not to scope for the offer of 2 major political parties, and to choose from another offers that are available.
This is good from the point of view of democracy and political pluralism, due to the fact that I think that in the heads of both the PiS leader and the Civic Platform and Coalition for years it has been to push as much political force as possible into the margins and to dominate by exchanging power.
Social impatience and the request for fresh opening
It turns out that there is increasing impatience and concern about the way in which Polish policy is going, and the results of the survey published a fewer days ago are confirmed. It follows that 3 quarters of Poles believe that Jarosław Kaczyński should quit to politics and 2 thirds think Donald Tusk should do it. This is nothing but a clear yellow card for both the leader. A large part of society says, "We don't want this." I think that in a form materialized in the election, alternatively than in the poll that I told you about, this will be the case as early as next Sunday, 18 March, erstwhile it turns out that 4 out of 10 voters will say: we are looking for an offer outside the dominant Polish political PO-PiS, and we have 11 candidates, we have a very wide choice. There are candidates firmly on the left, like Adrian Zandberg from the organization Together, to the strong right wing – I am referring to Grzegorz Braun from the Confederate who is most likely the most advanced on the right.
End of 2 organization domination?
Poles say this way: "You will gotta exert yourselves in these elections as you have never done in the last 20 years." The Citizen Coalition candidate has a chance to score about 30%, a candidate associated with the Law and Justice can rank at 30 percent. It's not enough. In order to win the election in the second round, there will be quite a few treatments to take care of the electorates of those candidates who will fall out. But it is very good for Poland, for the Polish political scene, that it will be possible to awaken any of these 2 leaders, these 2 formations and show them that they no longer dominate that they should make area for others, due to the fact that pluralism is needed, due to the fact that freshness in Polish politics is needed.
Poland in the shadow of political stagnation
It remains to be hoped that this process, which will most likely begin on 18 May, or decomposition on the political stage, will bring any fresh moves. Looking at Estonia all the way to Bulgaria, i.e. countries that have akin post-communist heritage, where a fresh policy was formed and parliamentary democracy was built from scratch, Poland as 1 of the fewer is in minus. In the sense that the political class that dominated Poland since the late 1980s and 1990s, politicians who are 60+ years old today, including participants of the pact in Magdalena or talks of the circular Table, have survived on the political phase until today. Many of our neighbors have experienced fresh air. One, two, 3 times the political scene was thoroughly rebuilt. There is simply a far-reaching stagnation here, especially, as I said, since 2005, erstwhile we said goodbye to the old division into post-solidarity and post-communist Poland and a fresh division into liberal and solidarity Poland, i.e. Donald Tusk's camp, and Jarosław Kaczyński's camp.
Is it time to change?
I hope that the change knocks and at our door, we will see it in the first circular of the vote and will besides have consequences for the next elections that await us, the parliamentary elections in 2027.
