The EU's SAFE debt programme is not without drawbacks and is not free, but there is inactive no sensible counter-proposation in the game "Who will indicate a better proposal than SAFE". The principles presented to the public of the presidential "Polish SAFE 0%" specify this thought as questionable financially, bureaucraticly expanded and inadequate.
O SAFE mechanism Everything's been told. We have besides devoted quite a few space to this instrument on the Polish Armed Portal. So let's leave him on the side, focus on the presidential rift, which is what we call. Polish SAFE 0% project. In a nutshell, the Armed Forces Authority proposes that profits be allocated to additional arms purchases for the military National Bank of Poland.
The first problem with this proposal is that the NBP has not shown profits in respective years. That could actually end the discussion. However, let us presume that banking accounting allows for activities in which the NBP will show profits and can be utilized to buy weapons. But whether it's real money or just an accounting record, no 1 knows it today. What will change in macroeconomics, that from minus PLN 20 billion per year the NBP will jump to the level plus PLN 20 billion? How will the creative approach to bank records affect the stableness of the zloty and investor assurance in Polish debt papers? And most importantly, the NBP wants to do this without the sale of reserves.
The president of the NBP assures that it will not be just accounting profits. “The central bank will become an active player in the gold marketplace and will actively manage gold reserves,” says NBP president Adam Glapiński. “There is simply quite a few volatility in the gold marketplace and it allows specified transactions to be carried out with profit,” he explains. Yes, it “allows profit” but besides “does not prevent loss”. The past of financial investments is paved with assurances that ‘tomorrow the rate will rise’ or ‘certainly fall’. The validity of specified beliefs is simply a different story. Once, twice, tenth specialists from NBP will play the marketplace and will be "forward". But the eleventh time?
The 3rd problem stems from the very thought of a central bank. It's a public institution, so by definition, public service is more crucial than the financial result. Like sewage treatment plants, hospitals or NBP schools request not make profits. It doesn't be for that. His most crucial task is to defender the value of the gold. That's it. That's it. How many dollars, bread or tanks we can buy for our national currency depends on the financial future of each of us. By requiring NBP to supply the Polish Defence Investment Fund, we impose on it the request to show profits. Otherwise, the thought doesn't make sense. What if these 2 tasks – the stableness of the gold and the financing of arms expenditure – conflict? Which 1 will be more crucial – gain or fight against inflation? How do you reconcile this in the long term?
The 4th problem is erstwhile we effort to answer how much money could go into the army. “Today we are able [...] to make in the next 4 – 5 years an amount of just about PLN 200 billion”, said Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the Chancellery of the president of Poland. What can we read in the justification for the bill establishing this presidential mechanism? "This model allows to gather at least PLN 200 billion by 2035" – wrote the President's Office. 5 years is simply quite a few difference.
As I mentioned above, there is no NBP profits yet. Preliminary estimates show that in 2025 the NBP will show a loss. So this year the Fund will not be powered. The first measures can only be in 2027. This will only start the process of ordering arms, due to the fact that companies, unlike the NBP, cannot “write” profits and pay them to employees and suppliers. That means months and years before the equipment yet goes to the soldiers.
Further questions give emergence to the announced zero interest cost, which is expected to fundamentally disagree between president Nawrocki's thought and loans from the European Union. Indeed, the transfer of the NBP profit to the Fund is not at the expense of raising money. But: – Specially for the national defence minister, additional mechanisms were introduced: bond issuance, loans and loans – said Leszek Skiba, the president's advisor at yesterday's conference. – Just in case – he immediately ordered. erstwhile we talk about the ten-year perspective, we besides gotta presume years of thin and unforeseen difficulties, which can origin that the NBP, even despite the most sincere intentions and top skills of specialists working there, will not make profits. The liquidity of the Fund will then and should be saved by "debt issuance, loans and loans". – Although the profit from gold should be sufficient, the presidential advisor assessed. He should... And if not, then what happens to the "0%" principle?
Problem number 7 - course risk. This is to be 1 of the biggest disadvantages denominated in euro of loans from SAFE. And of course, this is the weak side of the EU proposal. But if the “changing gold market” is to be the advantage of the presidential proposal, why is the variable gold/euro exchange rate no longer our chance to make profits in financial operations? Why do the president and president of the NBP only believe in the skills of native merchants in the markets of goldsmiths, for nothing with the same skills of currency merchants?
The last problem, actually the smallest, is the extended administration of the Fund. The Fund Council, the Steering Committee, a paper called the "Multiannual Defence Investment Programme"... All this next to the MON, the National safety Bureau, the General Staff of the Polish Army and "Polish Armed Forces improvement Programme 2025–2039". The duplication of institutions and normative papers is not needed and will surely not service the effective operation of the Fund.
![Should compulsory conscription be reinstated? [OPINION]](https://cdn.defence24.pl/2026/02/18/1200xpx/p3Z06pFq0AFC3OXOh2FsEY4cyvUIiJnLCcznUtAC.x5g7.jpg)
