The first (probably) gathering face-to-face with US president Donald Trump and China leader Xi Jinping is approaching since 2019.
Following a telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on September 19, this year, the American president announced that they both agreed to a gathering during the Asia-Pacific economical Cooperation Forum (APEC) in South Korea in late October. Although Beijing has not officially confirmed these plans, the world's media speculate what can bring the leaders to talk while tensions between the powers proceed to rise.
What led to this moment?
The road to a possible summit was bumpy. Since the Trump administration in April imposed “mutual” customs, starting a trade war, representatives of both sides held 4 rounds of talks in Geneva, London, Stockholm and Madrid. These meetings brought a temporary ceasefire in the form of postponement of part of tariffs, and the fresh negotiations in Madrid resulted in a framework agreement on TikTok, a Chinese application that threatened to block in the US.
The breakthrough in the TikTok case, confirmed by Trump's executive decree, was a direct impulse for the leaders' telephone conversation. According to Jeremy Chan, an analyst from Eurasia Group, gathering on neutral APEC ground “reflects the desire of both leaders to keep dialog and make conditions for a more crucial agreement“which could be announced in the future.
Will there be a breakthrough trade agreement?
Analysts are skeptical about the swift conclusion of the dispute. Trump's comments on a visit to China “at the beginning of next year” propose negotiations will continue. “This concludes speculation that the trade agreement will be concluded soon” wrote Arthur Kroeber of the investigation firm Gavekal Dragonomis. The upcoming dates – the expiry of the customs truce on 10 November and the final date for the sale of TikToka on 16 December – indicate that “We inactive have quite a few bargaining to do.“.
Both leaders are motivated. Neil Thomas of Asia Society Policy Institute believes “Trump wants to show that he can get more from China than his predecessors, while Xi wants to reduce force on the Chinese economy“. alternatively of 1 comprehensive agreement, Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of global Studies at Fudan University, expects a “stage approach”. Nevertheless, the South Korean gathering can bring concrete results, specified as a partial customs agreement combined with Chinese purchases of American agricultural products.
Who has the advantage in negotiating?
The TikTok agreement may be crucial for further discussions. Although details stay unclear, Chinese application owner ByteDance will gotta reduce its shares below 20%. The recently formed joint venture, valued at $14 billion, is to control a consortium of American investors, including Oracle, Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch.
“China handled the TikTok issue rather smoothly“ – says Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia and the Pacific in Natixis. In her opinion, the improvement of this agreement makes the USA “They owe something to China.“which can lead to concessions in another areas. However, not everyone shares this optimism. James Zimmerman, erstwhile president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, called the telephone call “disaster for the White House“noting the deficiency of advancement on key issues. “Beijing has the advantage now, and he's gonna drag the case until he gets what he wants.“ He wrote.
What are the implications for the Chinese economy?
China's economy is showing signs of slowdown. The increase in retail sales and exports has weakened and real property prices are falling. Although Beijing has so far refrained from large stimulus packages, expectations for political support are increasing.
Neil Shearing, the chief economist in Capital Economics, estimates that the tariffs themselves will reduce China's GDP by only 0.6% in a fewer years. “The real problem is that the remainder of the economy is comparatively weak. Exports have been a key driver of growth in fresh years” said Nikkei Shearing. “If he weakens, there is at the minute no alternate that could full complete the gap“.
Regardless of the result of the APEC summit, China will not change its overarching strategy. The upcoming five-year plan is expected to further strengthen the emphasis on home innovation and technological self-sufficiency to warrant national safety in an increasingly turbulent world.
Sources: Suzuki, W. (26.09.2025). Countdown to a Xi-Trump gathering at APEC: 4 things to know. Nikkei Asia
Leszek B. Glass
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