Russia's fresh concept of migration policy – safety priority

On October 15 Vladimir Putin approved Concept of the Russian Federation State Migration Policy for the period 2026–2030,which includes the evaluation, general objectives and policies of the state in the field of migration. It assumes, among another things, further extremist tightening of control over people coming traditional for Russia, directions and selectively bringing immigrants from little apparent regions specified as Europe and Africa. According to authoritative data, the number of immigrants in the FR presently reaches 6.2 million, although this value seems to be overstated. Nevertheless, shortages in the labour marketplace are presently estimated at about 2 million people. Accurate statistic and migration dynamics are hard to measure due to deficiency of data access.

Implementation of the concept will lead to a simplification in the influx of immigrants already observed and thus will not aid overcome the key problems of a country whose migration should be conducive. These include mitigating the effects of negative demographic trends and filling the increasing gaps in the national labour market. The implementation of the individual assumptions of the paper will depend on the consequences of the authorities, which have so far changed migration policy according to circumstantial needs.

Comment

• Further tightening of entry and residence rules, peculiarly affecting Central Asia and the Caucasus, will discourage immigrants from coming and lead to deeper gaps in the labour market. Since the terrorist attack in March 2024, about which the organization was accused of immigrants from Tajikistan, fresh requirements and restrictions have been gradually imposed on visitors in Russia, including in selected regions they were banned from working in certain sectors, specified as transport or trade. This is accompanied by the introduction of fresh bureaucratic requirements and comprehensive methods of control over migration, specified as digital tracking systems, biometrics or the registry of supervised persons, which in practice makes them susceptible to abuse of power, including corruption. The focus is accompanied by a media run depicting immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus as a safety threat and normalizing force against them, which fuels xenophobic sentiments in society. This has resulted in tensions between Moscow and the countries of origin of migrants (e.g. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan). The conditions described are affected by the negative effects of the war in Ukraine – i.e. the deterioration of the economical situation in the FR and the risks associated with the forceful recruitment of immigrants to the front, further reducing Russia's attractiveness as a direction of migration.
• The Kremlin declared the request to attract selected groups of foreigners to the country has a mostly propaganda dimension. These indicated in the paper are primarily: people identifying with alleged Russian conventional spiritual and moral values, foreigners from abroad, and citizens of Ukraine who left the territories occupied. According to Moscow, these groups could be easy integrated and do not pose a safety threat. The notions of the concept in this respect co-operate with propaganda, which creates a imagination of Russia as a conservative state in terms of values, which does not correspond to the socio-political realities in the country (e.g. low religiousness, advanced divorce and abortion). In August 2024 Putin signed a decree facilitating the decision to Russia to foreigners who share the conventional values promoted by the Kremlin. The simplified procedure includes, among others, the request to paper Russian language skills. Within six months, only 480 visas were issued. At the same time, noted in the conceptThe increase in the influx of abroad nationals from countries covered by the visa government from the FR is likely to include people brought by the Kremlin for the armed manufacture or front, including Africa, Cuba or North Korea. The indicated selective entry of selected groups of immigrants into Russia will most likely not be able to stimulate the mass influx of human capital and will not let the Russian economy to be replaced by inexpensive labour from Central Asia and the Caucasus.
• From the annexation of CrimeaRussia is expanding its population at the expense of the attacked Ukraine. The concept plans further actions for resettlement in the territory of FR Ukrainians who left the 4 occupied circuits.For the authorities, naturalization has become the main way to complement the melting population of the country. The origin of fresh citizens in fresh years was primarily Ukrainian occupied areas, from where any of the population were massively displaced into Russia and subsequently included forced passportisation. According to MMA data, more than 2 million Ukrainians have been given Russian citizenship since 2014 (not counting the passportization of persons remaining in Crimea and in 4 occupied regions). However, it seems improbable that people who have left the occupied territories would be ready to return to their homes or to live in Russia – this would exposure them to repression. It is worth noting that inclusion of data on citizens in Russian statistic Ukraine provides Moscow with area for manipulation, which further hinders the real assessment of the migration and demographic situation of the FR.