New! Last poll. CBOS provides for 40% attendance

wbijamszpile.pl 1 year ago

According to the latest figures from CBOS, the Civic Coalition can number on 33.4% of the votes of those most likely to participate in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. Second place is Law and Justice with 28.9 percent support. The 3rd place is taken by the 3rd Road with 11.4 percent of votes, and the Confederate (10.5 percent) and Left (9.7 percent) ranks behind it.

CBOS prepared an election forecast on the basis of responses from respondents who, according to the Centre, "will most likely participate in the upcoming vote". Respondents were selected on the basis of an analysis of answers to questions concerning, among others, the systematicness of the vote, the degree of interest in politics and the perceived importance of elections.

CBOS assumed that attendance in elections to the European Parliament would be 40%. The data presented concerns a group of respondents defined in this way.

Forecast Results – Last Survey

The CBOS forecast shows that the Citizen Coalition (33.4%), ahead of Law and Justice (28.9 percent). 3rd Way representatives (11.4%), Confederations (0.5%) and Left (9.7%) will besides be present in the European Parliament.

Other committees and undecided voters

The another committees will not exceed the electoral threshold. KWW Unparty Local Governmentists – average Poland in average Europe can number on 0.5% of votes, while another electoral committees would receive 0.4% of support. It is besides worth noting that 5.3 percent of people who, according to CBOS, are going to the elections inactive did not decide who they would vote for.

Last poll. CBOS predicts 40% attendance (FOTO: wujamszpile.pl)

Methodology Research

CBOS utilized aggregate data from 2 studies: a survey carried out from 20 May to 2 June 2024 as part of a mixed-mode procedure on a typical example drawn from the PESEL registry (N=1038) and a telephone survey (CATI) conducted during the election week from 3 to 5 June 2024 on a random-amount example of mobile telephone users (N=1000). The basis was data from the mixed-mode study, which was supplemented with data from CATI to best reflect the social structure.

Summary

The CBOS forecast points to the advantage of the civilian Coalition in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. However, these results may change as the election day approaches, peculiarly given the percent of undecided voters.

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