In fresh weeks Turkish politicians from the ruling camp have been increasingly talking about the request to normalize relations with Syria. The change of course towards the confederate neighbour besides publically supported president Erdogan, stating that dialog with Syria is necessary. This is simply a diametric change in Turkish abroad policy, due to the fact that since the beginning of the civilian war in Syria, the Turks have been pushing for the removal of Assad from power. Is the normalization of relations between Syria and Turkey already around the corner?
Old friends
Syrian-Turkish relations have always been hard and full of common prejudice. In the 1990s, there was almost even a war between these 2 countries erstwhile the Turks tried to force Hafiz Assad (Bashar's father) to complete their cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers organization (PKK).
However, the takeover of power in Syria by the younger Assad clan, Bashar and Turkey by Erdogan led to political thawing on the Ankara-Damaszek line. A free trade agreement was signed, joint military exercises were conducted, and Syria became very active in helping Turks fight against Kurdish PKK fighters.
Bashar Assad became the first Syrian president in past to visit Turkey. Assad and Erdogan were not only political partners, but possibly even more – friends. In 1 year, Assad and his wife flew to Turkey, where, in company with the Erdogan State, he spent a holiday.
Former Prime Minister Erdogan and president Assad with wivesSyrian and Turkish diplomats before 2011 defined the relation between Ankara and Damascus as a model for Turkey's relations with the full arabian world.
However, the outbreak of protests of the arabian Spring and Syrian civilian War led to a 180-degree change in Turkish abroad policy. Turkey has clearly sided with opposition and armed rebellion. Turkish weapons began to stream wide into Syrian rebels. Turkish intelligence was certain that the fall of Assad was only a substance of time, and support for the rebels would enable the creation of a friendly Turkey, a Sunni government in Damascus.
The Turks, however, have miscalculated. Assad rapidly obtained support from the Iranians and associated Hezbollah. Iranian weapons, instructors from the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps, Shiite Volunteers from Lebanon, Iraq or even Afghanistan began to scope Syria. In 2015, the Russians intervened on the side of Assad, which completely blocked Turkish plans to remove Assad from power.
Banners in Allepo, from left: president Putin, president Assad, Iran's highest leader ajatollah Ali Chamenei, and Secretary General Hezbollah Hassan NasrallahTurkey's defeats
Turkish policy towards the Syrian rebellion ended in a complete fiasco. Assad is inactive in power, and in northern Syria operates Kurdish quasi-state under American protectorate. The Turks could not even make a ca. 30 km buffer region along the northern border of Syria.
Since last year, there have been voices in Turkey that Ankara must yet accept the current situation and come up with a compromise with Assad. But why did Turkish politicians start speaking publically about the request to deal with Syrians?
The current situation in Syria. The territories under the control of the Turks were marked green and white (seledin colour to the south, by the border with Jordan and Iraq is under US control), red marked the areas under the control of Assad, yellow under control dominated by Kurds SDF, and orange areas under the common control of Assad and SDFThe fresh garments of the Sultan
There are respective reasons for changing Turkish policy towards Assad. First of all, there are parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey next year. Due to the mediocre economical situation of the country (inflation is over 80%), support for Erdogan and his ACP organization has consistently declined. 1 origin destabilising the Turkish economy is around 3.7 million Syrian refugees residing in Turkey. As many as 81% of Turks want refugees to return to Syria. any polls besides propose that the Turks straight link the problem of Syrian refugees with higher costs of surviving in Turkey and increased crime.
Erdogan seems to believe that, by reaching a compromise with Assad, he could "get free of" 3.7 million Syrian refugees and thus repair his election polls.
Turkish economical problems forced Erdogan's crew to search a compromise not only with Assad. In fresh months there has been a clear thaw in Turkish abroad policy, which has become much little aggressive than in 2015-2020. Turkey has normalized relations with, among others, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia or the United arabian Emirates.
The ongoing war in Ukraine is besides of large importance. Russia, which, alongside Iran, is the main ally of Assad, is busy with matters on the old continent. The Turks may think that in specified a situation they have more leverage and will be able to work out a better deal with Assad on their own – than with Russian brokerage.
What does Assad want? What does Erdogan want?
The issue of normalising Syrian-Turkish relations is very problematic. Bashar Assad is simply a very stubborn politician who frequently plays va banque. Therefore, in my opinion, Damascus will push for complete withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria. Additionally, Assad will want his troops to enter the areas presently under rebel control. For the Turks, specified conditions will be hard to accept, due to the fact that for years Erdogan presented Turkish soldiers as the last "wall", protecting Syrians from "blood-eating Assad". The withdrawal of troops from Syria and the "let" into northern Syria Assad would besides mean admitting to the Turks the defeat of their military operations in Syria.
However, the conditions that the Turks will set Assad will most likely be equally hard to accept. Ankara will surely press for any opposition politicians to be included in the Syrian power structures – the opposition Syrian Interim Government continues to operate in Turkey. Ankara will most likely besides want to impose guarantees on Assad to fight together the Kurds who formed their own quasi-state in the north. Despite Assad's deficiency of sympathy for the Kurds, any actions of Damascus against the Kurds are impossible due to the fact that they have American support.
An crucial language is the attitude of Iranians who have not taken an authoritative position on normalising relations on the Turkey-Syria line. It cannot be excluded that the Iranians will effort to usage the situation to accomplish their own goals and to make concessions in the Caucasus or in economical matters in the Turks.
The Syrian puzzle is very complicated. The multiplicity of players and different interests makes any conversation difficult. However, it seems that repairing the relation between Syria and Turkey is only a substance of time. Even if it is not possible to accomplish a full normalization of relations (return of ambassadors, etc.), Damascus and Ankara will most likely rapidly come up with any preliminary agreement that will be covered by further points in the following months, until full normalization.
More about standardisation on the Syria-Turkey line I will be talking present at 11:15 on TVP World, in the program “Middle East Observer”. 😉
