Donald Trump doesn't lose his good humor. He inactive believes that he will win in ending the war in Ukraine and spares no superlative to members of his administration who are having talks with Ukrainians and Russians. And so the Washington envoys do “great work” and “results are promising”. In this eruption of self-satisfaction there is no place for critical reflection and admitting that the negotiated truce (or, in fact, a truce...), is fiction – on respective levels.
Let us look at the first agreement, which provides for a 30-day suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure facilities. It was to be the consequence of Trump's telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin, which took place on 18 March. The gentlemen were barely able to put the headphones down, and Russian drones attacked, among others, the power station in Slaviansk. “We sent them out before the presidents made an appointment, then we failed to shoot down”, joked 1 of the leading Russian milbloggers.
"Good Will" Moscow...
Of course, authoritative sources in Moscow maintained—and inactive maintain—that the Federation's armed forces observe the truce. As bad guys, the Kremlin paints Ukrainians who raided 1 of the Russian refineries that night. The fact that it was a ripost for a Russian attack was carefully silenced.
At the same time, we are inactive dealing with further Russian missile-drone raids on Ukrainian cities. The alleged mark is military facilities, but the Russians hit inhabited quarters. On March 26, they launched a dense raid on the Kharkivs and Dnipro, 2 days earlier they attacked Odessa unparadoxed. A bit earlier, drones and rockets besides fell on Sumy, hitting a school where classes continued. Fortunately, the lessons took place in the shelter, so no 1 died, ended up “only” in the necessity of releasing the students from the rubble. The missiles besides struck another civilian facilities in Sumach, a full of nearly 80 people were injured, including thirteen of the city's youngest inhabitants.
A “realist” who is fond of cynicism (and quite a few specified commentators have been revealed during the war in the East), he might have noticed that no 1 has agreed to suspend raids "by any means"; so the Russians do not break the agreement. The point is that Moscow is constantly stressing goodwill, ensuring that it will not attack civilians. So it does not attack – as it respects the regulation of failure to hit energy infrastructure.
The Kremlin would like to avoid “biting off”
Under the lie layer, we have another chapter of truce fiction. As a consequence of Russian attacks from the turn of 2022–2023 and the spring strokes of 2024, Ukrainian energy lost 2 thirds of its pre-war powers. The presently produced energy in more than 60% comes from a atomic gym. And these Russians cannot destroy, due to the fact that they would besides bring on themselves a gigantic ecological cataclysm. And a geopolitical cataclysm, after that, her allies would turn distant from Moscow, especially China. This immunity of atomic power plants has another aspect. Without going into unnecessary method details – the gym has to send the produced energy somewhere, otherwise the disaster will occur. Which means the Russians have limited capacity to destruct transmission networks. In conclusion, an crucial part of Ukrainian energy Russia has already destroyed, and from what is left, it can destruct little. It is so hard to talk of large concessions from Moscow.
The Russians have rather a lot to save. Ukraine has been "grilling" Russian refineries and fuel depots for respective months now, all specified attack – and only from September of the year until the end of February 2025 there were twenty-five of them – brings harm to tens of millions of dollars. According to the calculations of independent OSINT analysts, the Russian economy lost over 650 million dollars on these strikes. And the metre goes on. It is not surprising, therefore, that the list of objects that should be covered by the energy truce published by the Kremlin included refineries, and further oil and gas pipelines and fuel storage.
Ukrainians know the value of this infrastructure, so erstwhile they "bit off" they aim at specified facilities. The Kremlin would like to avoid this "biting off" in return by offering nothing. Hoping that Washington would hold back Kiev – which would be a naive presumption if it were not for a clear weakness for Putin and Russia, which the American negotiators with Donald Trump lead.
Proof of inefficiency of diplomacy
In addition to the non-existent energy truce, we have yet another "success" of American diplomacy – a ceasefire in the Black Sea.
Let us presume for a minute that this is simply a real and respected determination – and look at them from the Ukrainian perspective. The armistice of the sea appears as unnecessary and unwanted gift, specified a “fifth wheel”. The strategical initiative in the Black Sea basin belongs to Ukrainians. They eliminated the hazard of landing on Odessa, broke the blockade of ports, and forced the Black Sea Fleet to decision most of the units from Crimea to the base in Noworosiyask, to the east Russian shore. They did so, although they do not have a fleet, skillfully utilizing combinations of available types of weapons, primarily sea drones and air drones, but besides anti-ship missiles and aerial maneuvering missiles.
In another words, the Ukrainians have swindled aggressors – but for 1 exception. The Russians, not as frequently as they utilized to, but inactive usage ships to fire missiles at Ukrainian cities. They do this primarily utilizing submarines equipped with Kalibr rockets. The features of these units make the Ukrainians hard to track and hit in motion. But Kalibry can be shot down, and Ukrainian anti-aircraft defence can handle it rather well, and above all, the fire from the sea has become rare. It was the last time it happened on 7 March this year, and it was the first attack in weeks involving ships. It is not known whether the Russians deficiency Calibrians or the problem is the availability of efficient ships. In favour of the latter, the fact that by leaving Crimean Sevastopol, the Russian fleet was deprived of access to the repair and repair facilities (the base in Noworosyjsk is much little equipped in this respect).
So a truce in the Black Sea would be beneficial primarily to Russians whose fleet could return to Crimea. It would be if it were – due to the fact that we are actually talking about media and political artefact, existing in Trump's head, its negotiators, favorable media and supporters. There is no real truce, although there is simply a Ukrainian readiness to refrain from armed operations at sea. But there are besides Russian conditions for the introduction of a moratorium – barrage, due to the fact that Moscow would like to abolish much of the sanctions. Only then would she agree not to fight at sea. But it doesn't actually fight anyway, so we have what we have – an pretend-a truce, which is simply a crushing proof of the inefficiency of American diplomacy under Trump...
