On the night of Tuesday for Wednesday there was a breach of Polish airspace by drones. The first signals of their intrusion came just before hr three, parallel with a massive Russian attack on Ukraine. Operations Command of the Armed Forces Types reported this event, stating that it was unprecedented.
As General Wiesław Kukuła said, the Polish side was prejudiced by Belarus about objects headed our way. He confirmed that Minsk had warned Warsaw about incoming drones. – It was amazing to me that Belarus, which escalates the situation on the land border, decided to cooperate this kind of cooperation – he said.
Commander of the Reserve Maximilian Dura, Defence24 expert, in a conversation with PAP noted that this could not be considered a motion of goodwill. In his opinion, specified an action would have been to prevent the objects from flying over Belarus and entering another country. According to the expert, only Minsk washed his hands.
It's a good thing they gave us that information due to the fact that it someway helped our defence system. I wouldn't whitewash them at all. He stressed.
Lukashenko doesn't want to be dependent
However, according to him, this situation besides had a affirmative aspect. Although Russian propaganda tried to represent the drone attack on Poland as an operation under a false flag, Belarus in practice confirmed where the machines came from and that they were of Russian origin.
Analyzing the motives of Minsk's unexpected action, Dura pointed out that despite strong dependence on Russia, Aleksander Lukashenka tries to balance in this submission. The evidence is that the Belarusian troops do not participate in the war in Ukraine. “This shows that Belarus is trying to keep not so much neutrality as autonomy to usage its armed forces”, he explained.
This isn't a war.
There were suggestions in the network that the informing may have been an effort to provoke Polish forces to launch combat procedures. Dura, however, does not agree with this view, stressing that the Russians already have cognition of radar frequencies utilized by Polish aviation. In his opinion, the real goal was to make fear among citizens – and this was partially achieved.
According to Dura, the actions taken by Belarus, including the jamming of the GPS signal on the Baltic Sea, are as dangerous as drone attacks. They are at hazard of serious impacts, specified as accidents. The expert emphasizes that although this is not a war formally, the intention is to make a sense of danger among citizens.
